Americans in 2020

Published Oct 31, 2013 |
112 Pages |
Pub ID: LA6135734
Americans in 2020
The fabric of who we are as a nation—from our employment prospects to our family structures—is constantly fraying and being rewoven. We are a graying nation inhabited by Baby Boomers and seniors who are decidedly not just fading away. People are living longer even as birth rates decline. Our residential and job communities are more diversified than ever due to a swelling—and increasingly more educated—minority populace. And delayed marriage combined with a greater propensity to pursue “three letter” degrees has allowed women in the workplace to both secure positions of authority and to usher the nation to an era of income equality among the genders. This latest report by Packaged Facts is designed to help forward-thinking individuals and companies understand the demographic changes that are shaping the country’s short-term and longer-term future.
Scope and Methodology
Americans in 2020 focuses on the demographic data—economic, occupational, and domestic—that will serve as the backbone of American life in coming years. Among the sources of primary data are Simmons National Consumer Surveys through Spring 2013, from Experian Marketing Services. On an ongoing basis, Experian Marketing Services conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers (approximately 25,000 for each 12-month survey compilation) who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population. This report is also based on U.S. Census Bureau data and projections for key insights into population trends in America. The report also draws on upon data collected from a range of sources, including business and academic publications as well as non-governmental organizations and think tanks.
- Chapter 1: Executive Summary
- Introduction
- Scope and Methodology
- Topline Demographic Insights
- Current Annual Population Growth at <0.8%
- Table 1-1: Projected Overall U.S. Population, 2010-2030 (number and change)
- The Graying of America
- Table 1-2: U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010-2050 (number in thousands)
- 31 Million Senior Women by 2020
- Table 1-3: U.S. Population by Age Group: Overall and by Gender, 2010-2020 (number and change)
- 64 Million U.S. Hispanics by 2020
- Figure 1-1: U.S. Population Change by Minority Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2020 (number in thousands)
- Current Annual Population Growth at <0.8%
- Topline Economic and Employment Insights
- A Declining Middle Class by 2020
- Hispanic, Asian Men and White Women to Have Highest Workforce Participation Rate in 2018
- Table 1-4: Civilian Labor Force and Participation Rates With Projections, by Race/Gender/Age, 1980 to 2018
- The Job-Creating Occupational Classifications through 2020
- Figure 1-2: Projected Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 vs. 2020 (projected number and change)
- Topline Household Structure Insights
- Household Structure Continues to Evolve
- Rise in Multi-Adult, Multi-Generational Households
- Single Person Households Increase, Married-Couple Households Decrease
- Figure 1-3: One-Person vs. Married Couple Share of Total U.S. Households, 2000 vs. 2030 vs. 2050
- Dwindling Number of Children in American Households
- Chapter 2: Demographics and Diversity Topline National Population
- Topline National Population
- Population Trends as Bedrock
- Historical Population Growth in the U.S
- Table 2-1: Overall U.S. Population, 1900-2000 (number and change)
- Table of Contents Americans in 2020
- Table 2-2: Projected Overall U.S. Population, 2010-2030 (number and change)
- Population Growth in Global Perspective
- Table 2-3: Projected Population Growth for Selected Countries, 2012 vs. 2050 (number in millions and multiplier)
- The Current Baby Bust
- Table 2-4: Number of Births, Birth Rate, and Fertility Rate in the U.S.,
- 1960-2005 (in thousands)
- Birth Rates Reflect Millennials’ Economic Anxiety
- Birth Rates in Global Perspective
- Table 2-5: Fertility Rates for Selected Countries, 2012
- Foreign-Born Population Levels Recover
- Table 2-6: Foreign-Born Population in the U.S., 1990-2010 (number and percent of total population)
- Number of Unauthorized Immigrants Dips
- Foreign-Born Population Birth Rates Falter
- Table 2-7: Foreign-Born Population in the U.S., 2002-2011 (number and change from previous year)
- Figure 2-1: Birth Rate Declines in the U.S. in Response to the
- Great Recession: Women Overall, U.S.-Born Women, and Foreign-Born Women, 1990 vs. 2010
- Rising Life Expectancies Bolster Population Totals
- Table 2-8: U.S. Life Expectancy at Birth: Overall and by Gender, 1930-2020 (years)
- Life Expectancies in Global Perspective
- Table 2-9: Life Expectancies for Selected Countries, 2012
- Table 2-10: Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries: by Gender, 1990 (years)
- Topline Demographic Breakouts
- The Graying of America
- Table 2-11: U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010-2050 (number in thousands)
- Figure 2-2: Distribution of Total U.S. Population Growth by Selected Age Groups, 2010 vs. 2020 (percent)
- Table 2-12: Distribution of U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010-2050 (percent)
- Figure 2-3: U.S. Old-Age Dependency Ratio, 2010-2050
- 31 Million Senior Women by 2020
- Table 2-13: U.S. Population by Age Group: Overall and by Gender, 2010-2020 (number and change)
- Figure 2-4: Senior Citizen Share of Total U.S. Adults: Women vs. Men, 2010-2050 (percent)
- 64 Million U.S. Hispanics by 2020
- Table 2-14: U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2015-2050 (number in thousands)
- Table 2-15: Distribution of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity,
- 2015-2050 (percent of total population)
- Figure 2-5: U.S. Population Change by Minority Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2020 (number in thousands)
- The Graying of America
- Chapter 3: Economic and Job Trends
- It’s the Economy
- Structural Nature of Economic Malaise
- Behind Volatility of Consumer Expectations, a Slow Decline
- Figure 3-1: Consumer Confidence, January 1967 Through January 2013 (composite index)
- Consumer Confidence Index Tells Glass-Partially-Refilling Story
- Figure 3-2: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, 1975-2013
- Low Expectations for American Economy
- Table 3-1: Consumer Responses to the Question, “Do You Think that in the Coming 12 Months the American Economy Will Be Better Off or Worse Off?,” 2008–2013 (percent of adults)
- Minority Optimism
- Table 3-2: Demographic Patterns for Positive Expectations for American Economy: By Race/Ethnicity and Political Outlook vs. Household Income, 2012-2013
- Table 3-3: Demographic Patterns for Positive Expectations for American Economy: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)
- Figure 3-3: Upward Mobility Optimism by Race/Ethnicity according to the General Social Survey (GSS), 1994-2012
- Stagnation in Improvement in Personal Financial Trajectories
- Table 3-4: Consumer Responses to the Question, “Do You Think That You Are Better Off Or Worse Off Financially Now Than You Were 12 Months Ago?,” 2009-2013 (percent of adults)
- Table 3-5: Demographic Patterns for Experiencing Positive Change in Financial Status Over Previous 12 Months: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)
- Table 3-6: Demographic Patterns for Expecting Positive Change in Financial Status Over Upcoming 12 Months: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)
- Figure 3-4: Size of North American Middle Class, 2009 vs. 2020 and 2030 (in millions)
- Figure 3-5: Growth in Size of Middle Class by Global Region, 2009 vs. 2020 (in millions)
- Employment Patterns
- Downward Trend in Full-Time Employment
- Table 3-7a: U.S. Population by Employment Status, 2004-2013 (percent of adults)
- Table 3-7b: U.S. Population by Employment Status, 2004-2013 (number in thousands)
- Figure 3-6: Full-Time Employment Rates by Highest Level of
- Educational Attainment: By Gender, 2012-2013 (percent)
- Figure 3-7: Full-Time Employment Rates by Highest Level of Educational Attainment: By Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2013 (percent)
- Table 3-8: Demographic Patterns for Full-Time Employment: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)
- Table 3-9: Demographic Patterns for Part-Time Employment: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)
- Table 3-10: Demographic Patterns for Temporary Unemployment: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)
- Hispanic, Asian Men and White Women to Have Highest Workforce Participation Rate in 2018
- Table 3-11: Civilian Labor Force and Participation Rates With Projections, by Race/Gender/Age, 1980 to 2018
- The Job-Creating Occupational Classifications through 2020
- Figure 3-8: Projected Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 vs. 2020 (projected number and change)
- Table 3-12: Projected Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 vs. 2020 (employment, change, and median annual wage)
- Downward Trend in Full-Time Employment
- Income Patterns
- Household vs. Individual Income Trends
- Table 3-13a: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2005-2013 (percent of households)
- Table 3-13b: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2005-2013 (number of households in thousands)
- Table 3-14a: U.S. Population by Individual Employment Income
- Bracket, 2005-2013 (percent of adults)
- Table 3-14b: U.S. Population by Individual Employment Income
- Bracket, 2005-2013 (number of adults in thousands)
- Table 3-15a: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2007-2013 (percent)
- Table 3-15b: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2007-2013 (number in thousands)
- Hard to Exit From Hard Times
- Figure 3-9: Median Household Income in Inflation-Adjusted Dollars, 2006-2011
- Some Uptick Is Expected
- Table 3-16: Recent and Projected Economic Growth by Global Region and Selected Countries, 2011-2014 (percent annual increase)
- Household vs. Individual Income Trends
- Chapter 4: The New American Household
- Household Structure Continues to Evolve
- Households Continue to Shrink
- Figure 4-1: Average Household Size, 1940-2012
- Relative Decline in Married Households
- Table 4-1a: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (percent)
- Table 4-1b: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (percent)
- Table 4-2a: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (number in thousands)
- Table 4-2b: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (number in thousands)
- Figure 4-2: Households by Type: 1990, 2000, and 2010 (percent)
- The Declining Urgency of Marriage
- Figure 4-3: Share of U.S. Adults by Marital Status, 2004 vs. 2012-2013 (percent)
- Figure 4-4: Median Age at First Marriage: By Gender, 1890 to 2012
- Figure 4-5: Marital Status by Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)
- Table 4-3: Demographic Patterns for Being Married: By Gender, 2012 (index)
- Rise in Multi-Adult, Multi-Generational Households
- Millennials in Multi-Adult Households
- Figure 4-6: Demographic Patterns for Living in Multi-Adult
- Households: By Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)
- Figure 4-7: Demographic Patterns for Living in Multi-Adult
- Households: By Ethnicity, 2012 (index)
- Single Households
- Older and Lower Income Adults Among Most Likely to Live Alone
- Figure 4-8: Households With One Person, 1960-2012 (percent)
- Table 4-4: Demographic Patterns for Living Alone: By Gender, 2012 (index)
- Table 4-5: Demographic Patterns for Living Alone: By Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)
- Table 4-6: Demographic Patterns for Living Alone: By Race/Ethnicity, 2012 (index)
- Figure 4-9: One-Person vs. Married Couple Share of Total U.S.
- Households, 2000 vs. 2030 vs. 2050
- Dwindling Number of Children in American Households
- Birthrates Higher Among Minorities
- Figure 4-10: Consumer Responses to the Questions, “Is Anyone in Your Household Expecting a Baby,” By Ethnicity, 2004, 2008, and 2012 (index)
- Increase in Households Comprised of Nonrelatives
- Figure 4-11: Households by Type, 1940-2012 (percent)
- Majority of First Born Babies Will Be to Unwed Mothers by 2020
- Figure 4-12: Families with Children Under 18: By Type, 1950-2012
- Figure 4-13: Living Arrangements of Children, 1960 to 2012
- Table 4-7: Demographic Patterns for Having Children in the Household: By Gender, 2012 (index)
- Table 4-8: Demographic Patterns for Having Children in the Household: By Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)
- Table 4-9: Demographic Patterns for Having Children in the Household: By Race/Ethnicity, 2012 (index)