Americans in 2020

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Americans in 2020

The fabric of who we are as a nation—from our employment prospects to our family structures—is constantly fraying and being rewoven. We are a graying nation inhabited by Baby Boomers and seniors who are decidedly not just fading away. People are living longer even as birth rates decline. Our residential and job communities are more diversified than ever due to a swelling—and increasingly more educated—minority populace. And delayed marriage combined with a greater propensity to pursue “three letter” degrees has allowed women in the workplace to both secure positions of authority and to usher the nation to an era of income equality among the genders. This latest report by Packaged Facts is designed to help forward-thinking individuals and companies understand the demographic changes that are shaping the country’s short-term and longer-term future.

Scope and Methodology

Americans in 2020 focuses on the demographic data—economic, occupational, and domestic—that will serve as the backbone of American life in coming years. Among the sources of primary data are Simmons National Consumer Surveys through Spring 2013, from Experian Marketing Services. On an ongoing basis, Experian Marketing Services conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers (approximately 25,000 for each 12-month survey compilation) who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population. This report is also based on U.S. Census Bureau data and projections for key insights into population trends in America. The report also draws on upon data collected from a range of sources, including business and academic publications as well as non-governmental organizations and think tanks.

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

Introduction

Scope and Methodology

Topline Demographic Insights

Current Annual Population Growth at <0.8%

Table 1-1: Projected Overall U.S. Population, 2010-2030 (number and change)

The Graying of America

Table 1-2: U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010-2050 (number in thousands)

31 Million Senior Women by 2020

Table 1-3: U.S. Population by Age Group: Overall and by Gender, 2010-2020 (number and change)

64 Million U.S. Hispanics by 2020

Figure 1-1: U.S. Population Change by Minority Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2020 (number in thousands)

Topline Economic and Employment Insights

A Declining Middle Class by 2020

Hispanic, Asian Men and White Women to Have Highest Workforce Participation Rate in 2018

Table 1-4: Civilian Labor Force and Participation Rates With Projections, by Race/Gender/Age, 1980 to 2018

The Job-Creating Occupational Classifications through 2020

Figure 1-2: Projected Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 vs. 2020 (projected number and change)

Topline Household Structure Insights

Household Structure Continues to Evolve

Rise in Multi-Adult, Multi-Generational Households

Single Person Households Increase, Married-Couple Households Decrease

Figure 1-3: One-Person vs. Married Couple Share of Total U.S. Households, 2000 vs. 2030 vs. 2050

Dwindling Number of Children in American Households

Chapter 2: Demographics and Diversity Topline National Population

Topline National Population

Population Trends as Bedrock

Historical Population Growth in the U.S

Table 2-1: Overall U.S. Population, 1900-2000 (number and change)

Table of Contents Americans in 2020

Table 2-2: Projected Overall U.S. Population, 2010-2030 (number and change)

Population Growth in Global Perspective

Table 2-3: Projected Population Growth for Selected Countries, 2012 vs. 2050 (number in millions and multiplier)

The Current Baby Bust

Table 2-4: Number of Births, Birth Rate, and Fertility Rate in the U.S.,

1960-2005 (in thousands)

Birth Rates Reflect Millennials’ Economic Anxiety

Birth Rates in Global Perspective

Table 2-5: Fertility Rates for Selected Countries, 2012

Foreign-Born Population Levels Recover

Table 2-6: Foreign-Born Population in the U.S., 1990-2010 (number and percent of total population)

Number of Unauthorized Immigrants Dips

Foreign-Born Population Birth Rates Falter

Table 2-7: Foreign-Born Population in the U.S., 2002-2011 (number and change from previous year)

Figure 2-1: Birth Rate Declines in the U.S. in Response to the

Great Recession: Women Overall, U.S.-Born Women, and Foreign-Born Women, 1990 vs. 2010

Rising Life Expectancies Bolster Population Totals

Table 2-8: U.S. Life Expectancy at Birth: Overall and by Gender, 1930-2020 (years)

Life Expectancies in Global Perspective

Table 2-9: Life Expectancies for Selected Countries, 2012

Table 2-10: Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries: by Gender, 1990 (years)

Topline Demographic Breakouts

The Graying of America

Table 2-11: U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010-2050 (number in thousands)

Figure 2-2: Distribution of Total U.S. Population Growth by Selected Age Groups, 2010 vs. 2020 (percent)

Table 2-12: Distribution of U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010-2050 (percent)

Figure 2-3: U.S. Old-Age Dependency Ratio, 2010-2050

31 Million Senior Women by 2020

Table 2-13: U.S. Population by Age Group: Overall and by Gender, 2010-2020 (number and change)

Figure 2-4: Senior Citizen Share of Total U.S. Adults: Women vs. Men, 2010-2050 (percent)

64 Million U.S. Hispanics by 2020

Table 2-14: U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2015-2050 (number in thousands)

Table 2-15: Distribution of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity,

2015-2050 (percent of total population)

Figure 2-5: U.S. Population Change by Minority Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2020 (number in thousands)

Chapter 3: Economic and Job Trends

It’s the Economy

Structural Nature of Economic Malaise

Behind Volatility of Consumer Expectations, a Slow Decline

Figure 3-1: Consumer Confidence, January 1967 Through January 2013 (composite index)

Consumer Confidence Index Tells Glass-Partially-Refilling Story

Figure 3-2: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, 1975-2013

Low Expectations for American Economy

Table 3-1: Consumer Responses to the Question, “Do You Think that in the Coming 12 Months the American Economy Will Be Better Off or Worse Off?,” 2008–2013 (percent of adults)

Minority Optimism

Table 3-2: Demographic Patterns for Positive Expectations for American Economy: By Race/Ethnicity and Political Outlook vs. Household Income, 2012-2013

Table 3-3: Demographic Patterns for Positive Expectations for American Economy: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)

Figure 3-3: Upward Mobility Optimism by Race/Ethnicity according to the General Social Survey (GSS), 1994-2012

Stagnation in Improvement in Personal Financial Trajectories

Table 3-4: Consumer Responses to the Question, “Do You Think That You Are Better Off Or Worse Off Financially Now Than You Were 12 Months Ago?,” 2009-2013 (percent of adults)

Table 3-5: Demographic Patterns for Experiencing Positive Change in Financial Status Over Previous 12 Months: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)

Table 3-6: Demographic Patterns for Expecting Positive Change in Financial Status Over Upcoming 12 Months: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)

Figure 3-4: Size of North American Middle Class, 2009 vs. 2020 and 2030 (in millions)

Figure 3-5: Growth in Size of Middle Class by Global Region, 2009 vs. 2020 (in millions)

Employment Patterns

Downward Trend in Full-Time Employment

Table 3-7a: U.S. Population by Employment Status, 2004-2013 (percent of adults)

Table 3-7b: U.S. Population by Employment Status, 2004-2013 (number in thousands)

Figure 3-6: Full-Time Employment Rates by Highest Level of

Educational Attainment: By Gender, 2012-2013 (percent)

Figure 3-7: Full-Time Employment Rates by Highest Level of Educational Attainment: By Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2013 (percent)

Table 3-8: Demographic Patterns for Full-Time Employment: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)

Table 3-9: Demographic Patterns for Part-Time Employment: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)

Table 3-10: Demographic Patterns for Temporary Unemployment: Overall and by Gender, 2012-2013 (index)

Hispanic, Asian Men and White Women to Have Highest Workforce Participation Rate in 2018

Table 3-11: Civilian Labor Force and Participation Rates With Projections, by Race/Gender/Age, 1980 to 2018

The Job-Creating Occupational Classifications through 2020

Figure 3-8: Projected Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 vs. 2020 (projected number and change)

Table 3-12: Projected Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 vs. 2020 (employment, change, and median annual wage)

Income Patterns

Household vs. Individual Income Trends

Table 3-13a: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2005-2013 (percent of households)

Table 3-13b: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2005-2013 (number of households in thousands)

Table 3-14a: U.S. Population by Individual Employment Income

Bracket, 2005-2013 (percent of adults)

Table 3-14b: U.S. Population by Individual Employment Income

Bracket, 2005-2013 (number of adults in thousands)

Table 3-15a: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2007-2013 (percent)

Table 3-15b: U.S. Population by Household Income Bracket, 2007-2013 (number in thousands)

Hard to Exit From Hard Times

Figure 3-9: Median Household Income in Inflation-Adjusted Dollars, 2006-2011

Some Uptick Is Expected

Table 3-16: Recent and Projected Economic Growth by Global Region and Selected Countries, 2011-2014 (percent annual increase)

Chapter 4: The New American Household

Household Structure Continues to Evolve

Households Continue to Shrink

Figure 4-1: Average Household Size, 1940-2012

Relative Decline in Married Households

Table 4-1a: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (percent)

Table 4-1b: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (percent)

Table 4-2a: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (number in thousands)

Table 4-2b: Composition of U.S. Households, 2004-2012 (number in thousands)

Figure 4-2: Households by Type: 1990, 2000, and 2010 (percent)

The Declining Urgency of Marriage

Figure 4-3: Share of U.S. Adults by Marital Status, 2004 vs. 2012-2013 (percent)

Figure 4-4: Median Age at First Marriage: By Gender, 1890 to 2012

Figure 4-5: Marital Status by Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)

Table 4-3: Demographic Patterns for Being Married: By Gender, 2012 (index)

Rise in Multi-Adult, Multi-Generational Households

Millennials in Multi-Adult Households

Figure 4-6: Demographic Patterns for Living in Multi-Adult

Households: By Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)

Figure 4-7: Demographic Patterns for Living in Multi-Adult

Households: By Ethnicity, 2012 (index)

Single Households

Older and Lower Income Adults Among Most Likely to Live Alone

Figure 4-8: Households With One Person, 1960-2012 (percent)

Table 4-4: Demographic Patterns for Living Alone: By Gender, 2012 (index)

Table 4-5: Demographic Patterns for Living Alone: By Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)

Table 4-6: Demographic Patterns for Living Alone: By Race/Ethnicity, 2012 (index)

Figure 4-9: One-Person vs. Married Couple Share of Total U.S.

Households, 2000 vs. 2030 vs. 2050

Dwindling Number of Children in American Households

Birthrates Higher Among Minorities

Figure 4-10: Consumer Responses to the Questions, “Is Anyone in Your Household Expecting a Baby,” By Ethnicity, 2004, 2008, and 2012 (index)

Increase in Households Comprised of Nonrelatives

Figure 4-11: Households by Type, 1940-2012 (percent)

Majority of First Born Babies Will Be to Unwed Mothers by 2020

Figure 4-12: Families with Children Under 18: By Type, 1950-2012

Figure 4-13: Living Arrangements of Children, 1960 to 2012

Table 4-7: Demographic Patterns for Having Children in the Household: By Gender, 2012 (index)

Table 4-8: Demographic Patterns for Having Children in the Household: By Generational Cohort, 2012 (index)

Table 4-9: Demographic Patterns for Having Children in the Household: By Race/Ethnicity, 2012 (index)