U.S. Food Market Outlook 2020: Home Cooking, Grocery Shopping, & Food Trends in the Age of Coronavirus

Published: June 10, 2020 - 342 Pages

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
    • COVID-19 Coronavirus Impacting Near Term Trends in 2020
    • E-Commerce Sales Growing Rapidly but Still Small
    • Key Ingredient-Based Product Trends
      • Plant-Based One of the Hottest Food Trends
      • Less Sugar/More Sugar
    • Key Marketing-Based Product Trends
      • Upscale: The Hottest Private Label Tier
      • Small Brands Driving Innovation
    • Key Consumer-Driven Product Trends
      • Socially Conscious Eating
      • Wellness Foods
    • Scope
    • Methodology
  • Overview
    • Food Manufacturing Outlook
      • Table Food Manufacturing by Product at Manufacturers' Level Value, 2009, 2014, 2019, and 2024 (billion dollars)
    • Food Retail Sales Forecast
      • Table U.S. Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2014, 2019-2024P (million dollars and percent)
    • Distribution Trends
      • E-Commerce Sales
    • Grocery Delivery
      • Table Online Grocery Delivery Service Use Share by Provider, 2017-2019
      • Brick-and-Mortar Retailers Enhance Omni-Channel Shopping Experience
        • Table Click-and-Collectors, 2018 vs. 2019 (percent)
        • Table Click-and-Collect: Store Used for Last Pick Up, 2018 vs. 2019 (percent)
      • Instacart Enhances Pickup Service
      • Coronavirus is Changing Uses of Grocery Fulfillment Methods
      • New Breed of Direct-to-Consumer Sales
      • Home Meal Kits
    • The Shrinking Center Store Revitalized for Now
    • Retail Channels
      • Table U.S. Retail Channel Shares by Top Food Categories, 2019 (percent)
  • Food Trend Spotlights
    • Ingredient-Based Trends
      • Plant-Based
      • Less Sugar/More Sugar
      • Less Sugar
      • More Sugar
      • Ethnic/Regional Flavors in Unexpected Places
      • Fresh Everything
      • More Vegetables, More Ways
        • Table Consumption Rates for Vegetables, 2015-2019 (percent of households)
      • CBD-Infused Foods
    • Marketing-Based Trends
      • Upscale: The Hottest Private Label Tier
      • Small Brands Driving Innovation
      • Product Collaboration Creates Win-Win Opportunities
      • Short Run/Seasonal Releases/Limited Editions
    • Differentiation Through Packaging
      • Priorities in Packaging Features
        • Table Consumer Insights: Opinions on Food/Beverage Packaging Features, 2019 (percent of respondents)
      • On-the-Go Consumption
    • Portion Control
    • Freshness and Safety
      • Resealable
      • Sustainability
      • Reusable
    • Consumer-Driven Trends
      • Socially Conscious Eating (Local & Sustainable)
      • Wellness Foods
      • Instagrammable Foods
      • Healthier Kids Foods
  • Fresh Packaged Salads
    • Scope
    • The Market
      • Retail Sales of Fresh Packaged Salads $6.7 Billion in 2019
      • Market to Reach $8.5 Billion by 2024
      • Volume Sales
        • Table U.S. Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2014-2024 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
      • Growth Opportunities
    • Competitors
      • Private Label, Fresh Express, Dole, and Taylor Fresh Control Over 80% of the Market
        • Table Selected Marketers/Brands of Fresh Packaged Salads
      • M&A Activity
    • New Product Trends
      • Local Indoor Farming-The Next-Gen Organic
      • Clean Label Communicates Better For You
      • Convenience Is the Lifeblood of Packaged Salads
      • Restaurant Quality at Home
      • International Influence
      • Enhanced Nutrition
    • Consumer Trends
      • 70% of Households Eat Packaged Salads
        • Table Consumption Rates for Bagged/Packaged Salads and Fresh Produce, 2009-2019 (percent of households)
      • Produce Leads Organic Consumption
        • Table Organic Use Trends for Selected Categories, 2010-2019 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Brand Use
        • Table Brands of Bagged/Packaged Salads Eaten Most Often by Households, 2009-2019 (percent of households that eat bagged/packaged salads)
  • Frozen Pizza
    • Scope
    • The Market
      • Retail Sales of Frozen Pizza $5.6 Billion in 2019
      • Market to Reach $6.5 Billion in 2024
      • Volume Sales
        • Table U.S. Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2014-2024 (million dollars, millions pounds, and percent)
      • Growth Opportunities
    • Competitors
      • Nestlé and Schwan's Control About 60% of Market
        • Table Selected Marketers/Brands of Frozen Pizza
      • M&A Activity
    • New Product Trends
      • Restaurant Quality Is Expected
      • Handcrafted and Artisanal Products Define Premiumization
      • Health and Nutrition Without Sacrificing Taste
      • Plant-Based Taking Hold in Frozen Pizza
      • Unique and Bold Flavors Differentiate Frozen Pies
    • The Consumer
      • Frozen Pizza Eaten by Over 60% of Households
        • Table Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, Main Courses, and Complete Dinners, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Frozen Pizza Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often
        • Table Number of Frozen Pizzas Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households that eat frozen pizza)
  • Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
    • Scope
    • The Market
      • Retail Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Over $13 Billion in 2019
      • Market Heading Toward $15 Billion in 2024
      • Volume Sales
        • Table U.S. Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2014-2024 (million dollars, units, and percent change)
      • Category and Segment Sales
        • Table U.S. Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2016-2019 (million dollars)
      • Growth Opportunities
    • Competitors
      • Unilever, Nestlé, and Private Label Control Over 50% of Market
        • Table Selected Marketers/Brands of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
      • M&A Activity
    • New Product Trends
      • Indulgence Still Drives Most Sales
      • Low-Calorie, High-Protein, and Reduced Sugar Remaking Light Ice Cream
      • Calling Out Reducing Sugar
      • Diet-Designed Ice Cream
      • Plant-Based, Non-Dairy Finds a Niche
      • Sustainable Ice Cream
      • International Treats Get Exposure in the U.S.
      • Appealing Directly to Kids
    • The Consumer
      • Ice Cream Penetration Far Higher Than Frozen Novelties
        • Table Consumption Rates for Ice Cream, Frozen Novelties, and Packaged Frozen Yogurt, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households)
      • Ice Cream Eaters Want Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream
        • Table Types of Ice Cream/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households that eat ice cream/sherbet)
      • Most Ice Cream/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much
        • Table Quarts of Ice Cream/Sherbet Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households that eat ice cream/sherbet)
      • Brand Use
        • Table Brands of Eaten Most Often by Households: Ice Cream vs. Frozen Novelties, 2009-2019 (percent of households that eat ice cream or frozen novelties)
  • Meal & Snack Bars
    • Scope
    • The Market
      • Retail Sales of Meal & Snack Bars Are Over $7 Billion in 2019
      • Market to Reach $8.5 Billion in 2024
      • Volume Sales
        • Table U.S. Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2014-2024 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U.S. Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, 2016-2019 (million dollars)
      • Growth Opportunities
    • Competitors
      • General Mills, Kellogg, and CLIF Bar Control About 45% of the Market
        • Table Selected Marketers/Brands of Meal & Snack Bars
      • M&A Activity
    • New Product Trends
      • Clean Label Is Table Stakes for "Healthier" Bars
      • New Functional Benefits Beyond the Traditional
      • Enhanced Nutrition
      • Designed for Dietary Preferences
      • Calling Out Reducing Sugar
      • Free-From Products Target Allergen
      • Plant-Based for Protein and Healthier Products
      • Cool Bars
      • Indulgence Desired Across All Bars
      • Differentiating in a Crowded Market
    • Consumer Trends
      • Far More Consumers Eat Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Snacks & Bars Than Other Bars
        • Table Consumption Rates for Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Energy/Diet Snacks & Bars, 2009-2019 (percent of adults)
      • Consumers Prefer Granola, but Fruit & Nut Bars Are Gaining
        • Table Types of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Snacks & Bars Eaten Most Often, 2009-2019 (percent of adults who eat breakfast/cereal/granola snacks & bars)
      • Snack Bar Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often
        • Table Servings of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Snacks & Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. adults who eat breakfast/cereal/granola snacks & bars)
      • Key Differences in Consumer Demographics Among Leading Bars
        • Table Demographic Characteristics of Selected Bar Brand Eaters, 2019 (index)
  • Salty Snacks
    • Scope
    • The Market
      • Retail Sales of Salty Snacks Over $27 Billion in 2019
      • Market Over $34 Billion by 2024
      • Volume Sales
        • Table U.S. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2014-2024 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U.S. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2019 (million dollars and percent change)
      • Growth Opportunities
    • Competitors
      • PepsiCo Controls Over 60% of Market
        • Table Selected Marketers/Brands of Salty Snacks
      • M&A Activity
    • New Product Trends
      • Indulgence Still Paramount
      • Healthier Profiles Becoming Table Stakes
      • Alternatives to Corn and Potato Bases
      • Enhanced Nutrition
    • The Consumer
      • Product Use Rates
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2009-2019 (percent of households)
        • Table Types of Potato Chips Eaten Most Often, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households that eat potato chips)
        • Table Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households that eat potato chips)
        • Table Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Pita Chip & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households that eat corn/tortilla chips/cheese snacks)
      • Brand Use
        • Table Brands of Salty Snacks Eaten Most Often: Among All Households, 2014-2019 (percent of all households)
        • Table Brands of Salty Snacks Eaten Most Often: Among Customer Base by Product Category, 2015-2019 (percent of households that eat specified type of salty snack)
  • Yogurt
    • Scope
    • Market Size & Segmentation
      • Retail Sales of Yogurt $8.7 Billion in 2019
      • Market Declining to $8.6 Billion in 2024
      • Volume Sales
        • Table U.S. Yogurt Retail Sales, 2014-2024 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)
      • Category Sales
        • Table U.S. Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2019 (million dollars)
    • Growth Opportunities
    • Competitors
      • Danone, Chobani, & General Mills Control Over 70% of Market
        • Table Selected Marketers/Brands of Yogurt
      • M&A Activity
    • New Product Trends
      • Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Driving Alternative Surge
      • Playing Up Probiotics
      • Less Sugar, More Protein
      • Nut Butters Add Good Fat to Yogurt
      • Balancing Fun and Nutrition in Kids' Yogurts
      • International Styles Take on Greek
      • Indulgence Always Tastes Good
      • Capturing More of the Snacking Market
    • Consumer Trends
      • Yogurt Eaten by More Than Half of Adults, but Consumption Is Declining
        • Table Consumption Rates for Yogurt & Smoothies, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. adults)
      • Consumers Widely Prefer Spoonable Yogurt, but Drinkable Yogurt Is on the Rise
        • Table Forms of Yogurt & Smoothies Eaten/Drank Most Often, 2011-2019 (percent of U.S. adults who eat/drink yogurt & smoothies)
      • Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Increasingly Preferred by Consumers
        • Table Types of Yogurt & Smoothies Eaten/Drank Most Often, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. adults who eat/drink yogurt & smoothies)
      • Yogurt with Fruit & Greek Style Most Popular
        • Table Kinds of Yogurt & Smoothies Eaten/Drank Most Often, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. adults who eat/drink yogurt & smoothies)
      • Most Yogurt Eaters/Drinkers Don't Consume It That Frequently
        • Table Servings of Yogurt Eaten/Drank in Last 30 Days, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. adults who eat/drink yogurt)
      • Brand Use
        • Table Brands of Yogurt Eaten Most Often by Households, 2014-2019 (percent of households that eat yogurt)
  • Meat and Poultry
    • Scope
    • The Market
      • Retail Sales of Meat and Poultry Over $99 Billion in 2019
      • Market to Reach Over $108 Billion by 2024
      • Volume Sales
        • Table U.S. Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2014-2024 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
      • Category and Segment Sales
        • Table U.S. Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2016-2019 (million dollars and percent change)
      • Growth Opportunities
    • Competitors
      • Five Companies Control Majority of the Market
      • Other Players
        • Table Selected Marketers/Brands of Meat and Poultry
      • M&A Activity
    • Competitive Product Highlight: Meat Alternatives
      • Lab-Grown Meat May Impact Market in Future
    • New Product Trends
      • Authenticity and Transparency
      • Clean and Natural
      • Premiumization
      • Value-Added Products Offer Convenience, Flavor
      • More Functional Packaging
      • Meat Snacks
    • Consumer Trends
      • Beef and Chicken Remain Americans' Favorites
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Meat & Poultry, 2009-2019 (percent of households)
      • Processed Meats Still Popular, But Declining….Except Bacon
        • Table Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry 2009-2019 (percent of households)
      • Consumption of Meat and Plant-Based Alternatives
        • Table Consumption Rates for Meat Alternatives 2009-2019 (percent of households)
        • Table Consumption of Meat Alternatives by Selected Demographics, 2009-2019 (percent of households that eat meat alternatives)
  • Cereal
    • Retail Sales Declining Slightly to $10.2 Billion by 2024
    • Overview
    • Headwinds to Growth
    • Key Opportunities for Future Growth
    • Competitors
  • Chocolate Candy
    • Retail Sales to Reach $27 Billion by 2024
    • Overview
    • Headwinds to Growth
    • Key Opportunities for Future Growth
    • Competitors
  • Cookies
    • Retail Sales Nearly $13 Billion by 2024
    • Overview
    • Headwinds to Growth
    • Key Opportunities for Future Growth
    • Competitors
  • Fresh Bread
    • Retail Sales Nearly $17 Billion by 2024
    • Overview
    • Headwinds to Growth
    • Key Opportunities for Future Growth
    • Competitors
  • Frozen Dinners/Entrees
    • Retail Sales Nearly $12 Billion in 2024
    • Overview
    • Headwinds to Growth
    • Key Opportunities for Future Growth
    • Competitors
  • Natural and Specialty Cheese
    • Retail Sales Nearly $19 Billion in 2024
    • Overview
    • Headwinds to Growth
    • Key Opportunities for Future Growth
    • Competitors
  • Soup
    • Retail Sales Nearly $8 Billion in 2024
    • Overview
    • Headwinds to Growth
    • Key Opportunities for Future Growth
    • Competitors
    • Consumer Trends
      • Consumption of Soup Products
        • Table Consumption Rates for Soup by Type: Canned/Prepared vs. Dry/Bouillon, 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households)
        • Table Forms of Canned/Prepared Soup Eaten Most Often: Ready-to-Serve vs. Condensed 2009-2019 (percent of U.S. households who eat prepared soup)
      • Brand Use
        • Table Brands of Soup Eaten Most Often by Households: Canned/Prepared vs. Dry/Bouillon, 2009-2019 (percent of households that eat soup products by type)

Abstract

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2020: Home Cooking, Grocery Shopping, & Food Trends in the Age of Coronavirus

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Most packaged food categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving food marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product launches, ingredient changes, and different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to sharply increased demand for food in the retail sector as consumption has been shifted from the foodservice industry (including cafeterias in schools and restaurants) to the home. As a result, demand on the retail side has increased to balance losses in the foodservice market as consumers shift their food spending to more at-home preparation and consumption.

With a focus on “what’s next” – along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table – U.S. Food Market Outlook 2020: Home Cooking, Grocery Shopping, & Food Trends in the Age of Coronavirus is packed with insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. This report delivers actionable predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, food processors, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the food market.

Scope

Combining Packaged Facts’ extensive monitoring of the food and beverage market with proprietary surveys, U.S. Food Market Outlook 2020: Home Cooking, Grocery Shopping, & Food Trends in the Age of Coronavirus is the go-to source for a complete understanding of the U.S. food market. This broad-based report evaluates current trends and future directions for marketing and retailing, along with consumer patterns across the food market. U.S. Food Market Outlook 2020: Home Cooking, Grocery Shopping, & Food Trends in the Age of Coronavirus examines product availability; surveys retail channel trends; and analyzes consumer trends and motivations. This report focuses on the market for selected food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail channels of distribution are covered in market sizing and discussion, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct-sales channels including online. Market size data and projections are provided at the retail sales level for 2014-2019 and 2019-2024, with channel and marketer shares figures for 2019.

Report Methodology

The information contained in U.S. Food Market Outlook 2020: Home Cooking, Grocery Shopping, & Food Trends in the Age of Coronavirus was developed from primary and secondary research sources. Primary research includes national online consumer polls of U.S. adult consumers (age 18+) conducted on an ongoing basis by Packaged Facts to analyze purchasing patterns and attitudes with regard to food and beverage preferences. Supplementing Packaged Facts’ exclusive survey is an extensive analysis of Simmons’ National Consumer Study, which is based on approximately 25,000 adult respondents surveyed annually. This report contains dozens of numerical tables and charts, as well as numerous product photographs. Primary research also includes interviews with food and beverage market experts; participation in and attendance at food industry events; and extensive internet canvassing. Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports. Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data from mass market and specialty channels.


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