In-Store and Freestanding Bakery Sales Excluded Report Methodology The Products
Excluded Products The Market
Table 1-1: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, by Category, 1995-2004 (dollars): Cookies, Pastries, Snack Cakes, Doughnuts, Cakes, Pies, Muffins Factors in Future Growth Seduced by Sweets Will the New Sense of Moderation Last? "Convenient Fuel" Fresh Baked Goods Hold Greater Threat to Packaged Versions Sweet Baked Goods Sales Will Exceed $12.2 Billion in 2004 Market Composition by Product Figure 1-1: Share of U.S. Retail Sales of Sweet Baked Goods, by Category, 1999 (percent): Cookies, Pastries, Snack Cakes, Doughnuts, Cakes, Pies, Muffins Market Composition by Outlet Figure 1-2: Supermarket Share of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods U.S. Retail Dollar Sales, 1999 (percent) The Marketers
An Extremely Crowded Marketplace Largely a Regional Competitive Scene A Multitude of New Products Media Dollars Roughly Stable in 1998 at $138.5 Million A Limited Range of Ad Themes Distribution and Retail
Types of DSD Margins Are Relatively High Vast Assortment The Consumer
Gender Age Education Employment Status Occupation Marital Status Race/Hispanic Origin Household Income Persons in Household Children in Household Residence At Least 84 Million Cookie Users Over 62 Million Eat Snack Cakes Nearly 39 Million Users of Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Close to 53 Million Use Toaster Pastries Over 59 Million Breakfast Pastry Users More Than 71 Million People Are Doughnut Users Almost 30 Million Muffin Eaters
Seven Product Categories In-Store and Freestanding Bakery Sales Excluded Clarification of Terms The Products
Cookies Pastries Snack Cakes Doughnuts Cakes Pies Muffins Shelf-Stable, Refrigerated, and Frozen Forms Seasonal and Promotional Products Fat-Free, Low-Fat, and Sugar-Free Sweet Baked Goods Units of Sale: Multiple versus Single Servings Packaging Package Graphics Regulation
The NLEA Nutrition Label Industry Advocacy ISO 9000 Certification
Table 3-1: U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, by Product Category: 1995-1999 (dollars): Cookies, Pastries, Snack Cakes, Doughnuts, Cakes, Pies, Muffins A Mature Market Spurred by Less Strict Eating Habits National Economy, In-Store Bakeries Have Also Been Influential Cookies in Strong Push to $5.1 Billion Pastries Gain Steam, Approach $1.6 Billion Snack Cakes, at $1.5 Billion, Cool Off Doughnuts Recover to $781 Million Cakes Have Market's Strongest Growth Pattern, Reach $740 Million Pies Climb at Moderate Rate to $551 Million Muffins Rally Well, Hit $271 Million Factors in Future Growth
Sugar and Adults versus Sugar and Kids Will the New Sense of Moderation Last? "Convenient Fuel" Generation Y's Spending Power Table 3-2: Projection of U.S. Population by Age, 2000-2010 (number): 6 age brackets X-ers Are the Snack Generation Boomers Are the Ones with Conflicting Urges The Greying of America Fresh Baked Goods Hold Greater Threat to Packaged Versions The Healthy U.S. Economy Outlook by Category Cookies Pastries. Snack Cakes Doughnuts Cakes Pies Muffins Projected Sales
Table 3-3: Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Sweet Baked Goods, by Product Category: 1999-2004 (dollars): Cookies, Pastries, Snack Cakes, Doughnuts, Cakes Pies, and Muffins Cookies in Bullish Progress to $5.9 Billion Pastries Will Climb to $1.8 Billion Snack Cakes to Swell to $1.6 Billion Doughnuts Will Push to $914 Million Cakes to Rise to $927 Million Pies to Reach $626 Million Muffins to Attain $319 Million Market Composition: By Product
Table 3-4: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Sweet Baked Good, by Product Category, 1995-1999 (percent): Cookies, Pastries, Snack Cakes, Doughnuts, Cakes, Pies, Muffins Virtually All Cookies Sold in Shelf-Stable Form Toaster Tarts Account for Half of Pastry Sales Shelf-Stable SKUs Dominate Cake Category Frozen/Refrigerated Cheesecake Bullish, Builds Share of Cake Category Frozen SKUs Account for Half of Pie Sales Shelf-Stable Is Usual Muffin Form Market Composition: By Outlet
Table 3-5: Share of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods U.S. Retail Dollar Sales, by Outlet, 1999 (percent): Supermarkets, Drugstores, Mass Merchandisers, All Other Outlets Market Composition: Seasonality
Market Composition: Regionality
Table 3-6: Sweet Baked Goods Purchasing, by Region and Product Type, 1998 (principal shoppers) ( percent and index) Northeast, Midwest, South, and West; Cookies, Toaster Pastries, Breakfast Pastries, Doughnuts, Snack Cakes, Muffins, Frozen Muffins, Frozen Pies/Cakes/Pastries South Has Most Sweet Baked Goods Purchasers A Few Standout Tendencies to Purchase Some Pockets of Resistance, Too
Leading Marketers Are Publicly Held Bread Makers Are Important—But So Are Sweet Baked Goods Specialists A Huge Sector Are Regionalists and Locals Many Marketers Also Active in Private Label Table 4-1: Leading Marketers of Sweet Baked Goods, and Their Brands and Products, 2000 Marketer and Brand Shares
Table 4-2: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Cookies, in All Outlets, 1997-1999 (percent): 10 marketers; 40 brands Bestfoods' Command of Pastries Is Eroded by Private Label Table 4-3: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Pastries (Excluding Toaster Pastries) in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 13 marketers; 20 brands Kellogg Is Toaster Pastry Dominator Table 4-4: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged, Shelf-Stable Toaster Pastries, in All Outlets, 1997-1999 (percent): 4 marketers; 9 brands Diageo Is Only Prominent Refrigerated Pastry Marketer Table 4-5: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Refrigerated Pastries in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 5 marketers; 6 brands Interstate Overtakes McKee in Snack Cake Category Table 4-6: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Snack Cakes in All Outlets, 1997-1999 Interstate, Bestfoods Are Doughnut Mavens Table 4-7: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Doughnuts in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent) Bestfoods Monopolizes Refrigerated Snack Cakes/Doughnuts Table 4-8: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Refrigerated Snack Cakes and Doughnuts in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 3 marketers; 3 brands Bestfoods Is Cake King Table 4-9: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable Cakes (Excluding Snack or Coffee Cakes) in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 9 marketers Bestfoods, Private Label Stand Out in Refrigerated Cakes Table 4-10: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Refrigerated Cakes (Excluding Snack or Coffee Cakes) in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 5 marketers; 5 brands No Surprise: Sara Lee Dominates Frozen Cheesecake Table 4-11: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Frozen Cheesecakes in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 10 marketers; 11 brands Bestfoods, Flowers Lead Shelf-Stable Pie Marketers Table 4-12: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable Pies (Excluding Snack Pies) in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 12 marketers; 20 brands Flowers Commands Half of Frozen Pie Sales Table 4-13: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Frozen Pies in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 7 marketers; 7 brands A Trio of Marketers Top Refrigerated Pies Table 4-14: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Refrigerated Pies (Excluding Snack Pies) in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 6 marketers; 6 brands Interstate and Otis Spunkmeyer Alternate as Muffin Leaders Table 4-15: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Muffins in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 10 marketers; 14 brands Heinz/Weight Watchers Dominates Frozen Muffins Table 4-16: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Frozen Muffins in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 3 marketers; 5 brands In Refrigerated Muffins, General Mills Is Sole Challenger to Private Label Table 4-17: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Refrigerated Muffins in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 2 marketers, 2 brands Other Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Table 4-18: Marketer and Brand Shares of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Other Packaged Frozen Sweet Goods (Excluding Cheescakes) in Supermarkets, 1997-1999 (percent): 9 marketers; 14 brands The Competitive Situation
An Ongoing Wave of Acquisitions Largely a Regional Competitive Scene Lots of Opportunities for Smaller Marketers Competition Heightening among Private Labelers Competitive Focus: Bestfoods
Bestfoods Classes Activities by Eight Product Categories A Globalist Builds the Regional Entenmann's Brand Other Bestfoods Labels Competitive Focus: Campbell Soup Company
Four Principal Business Segments Riding the High End with Pepperidge Farm Other Famous Campbell Brands Competitive Focus: Delicious Brands, Inc
Carl Icahn Takes a Bite An Exploiter of Dietary Concerns Broadens Its Stance Delicious an Outsourcer of All Manufacture Competitive Focus: Interstate Bakeries Corporation
Interstate a Powerful, Broad-Based Marketer Unique Brand Personalities The Drake Bakeries Acquisition Interstate Spends $100 Million on Capital Improvements Competitive Focus: Keebler Foods Company
Keebler Pushes to $2.7 Billion in 1999 An Aggressive Positioner to Both Adults and Kids Keebler an Avid Acquirer Keebler's Increased Efficiences A Note about Flowers Industries Competitive Focus: McKee Foods Corporation
McKee Positions on Variety and Unbeatable Price Competitive Focus: Nabisco Group Holdings Corp.
Full Year 1999 Shaking Up the Lumbering Giant—Again and Again An Advertising and Promotional Powerhouse The Fat Is Back in Some SnackWell's Famous Nabisco Brands Competitive Focus: Sara Lee Corporation
New Cheesecakes Revitalize Core Sara Lee Line Global Streamlining Frees up Cash for Marketing About $500 Million in Capital Expenditures Every Year Competitive Focus: Specialty Foods Corporation
Putting the "Specialty" Back into Specialty Marketing Trends
Compared to the 1980s, Lots More Marketing Kids Increasingly Targeted New Life in the Premium Price Tiers More Private Label New Product Trends
Chocolate an Even Bigger Draw Lately SKUs for Kids More Single-Serving and Bite-Sized Eats Table 4-19: Selected New Product Introductions, 1998-1999 Nutraceutical Sweet Baked Goods Consumer Advertising Expenditures
Nabisco and Kellogg Each Spend in Neighborhood of $25 Million Keebler Ups Spending to $20.5 Million Campbell Pumps Pepperidge Farm Budget to $17 Million Diageo/Pillsbury Increases Spending to $15 Million McKee Trims Budget to $11 Million Interstate Spending Reaches $10 Million Sara Lee Quadruples Spending to $8.5 Million Bestfoods Increases Media Monies to $5 Million Specialty Foods Spends $1 Million Other Notable Spenders Consumer Advertising Positioning
Indulgence Exciting, Irresistible Taste Low Fat a Secondary Positioning A Long Time Eating Humor Convenience. Soul Examples of Consumer Ads Consumer Promotions
Couponing Bonus Amounts of Product Tie-Ins Sweepstakes One Company's Emphasis on Premiums Trade Deals Translate into Store Specials Trade Advertising
Examples of Trade Ads
Types of DSD DSD Enhances Category Management DSD Becomes More Necessary as Retailers Consolidate Table 5-1: Leading U.S. Grocery Retailers (dollars and percent): Kroger, Wal-Mart, Albertson's, Safeway, Ahold USA Preservatives Use Can Determine Distribution Choice Distribution Schedules Shift to Accommodate Weekend Shopping Trips At the Retail Level
Table 5-2: Supermarket Retailers' Average Gross Profit Margins on Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, by Type, 1997 vs. 1998 (percent): Frozen Cakes/Pastries, Cakes/Pastries/Doughnuts/Pies, Cookies/Crackers/Biscuits, Frozen Pies, Toaster Pastries Vast Assortment Assortments Pumped Up with Specialty Items Organization of Sweet Baked Goods Shelving Ideal for Cross-Shelving Fresh Sweet Baked Goods—Threat or Not? Table 5-3: Share of In-Store Fresh Bakery Sales, by Product Type, 1998 (percent) 11 product types
The Consumer
Gender Age Education Employment Status Occupation Marital Status Race/Hispanic Origin Household Income Persons in Household Children in Household Residence The Consumer: Cookies
Cookies Have Very Broad Cross-Section of Use Table 6-1: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Household Use of Cookies, 1998 Sandwich and Chocolate Chip Are Most Favored Cookie Types Table 6-2: Household Use of Cookies, by Cookie Type, 1998 (number and percent): 10 types Use of Cookie Types Pivots Primarily on Age and Income Table 6-3: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Bite Size, Sandwich, Soft Chocolate Chip, and Other Soft Cookie Types, 1998 Table 6-4: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Chocolate Chip, Fudge Covered, Chocolate (no chips), and Fruit-Filled Cookie Types, 1998 Table 6-5: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Nut, Vanilla (no chips), and Other Cookie Types, 1998 Moderate Use of Cookies Is Prevalent Table 6-6: Household Use of Cookies, by Frequency of Use (number and percent): heavy, moderate, light "Family Factors" Most Influence Frequency of Cookie Use Table 6-7: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Cookies, by Frequency of Use, 1998 Oreo, Chips Ahoy!, Little Debbie, Fig Newtons Are Most Popular Brands Table 6-8: Household Use of Cookies, by Brand, 1998 (number and percent): 33 brands Patterns in Use of Selected Cookie Brands In Use of Cookie Brands, Women Stand Out, Men Do Not Table 6-9: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Archway, Duncan Hines, and Entenmann's Cookies, 1998 Table 6-10: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Any Keebler, Keebler E.L. Fudge Sandwich, and Keebler Chips Deluxe Cookies, 1998 Table 6-11: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Keebler Fudge Shoppe, Keebler Pecan Sandies, and Keebler Soft Batch Cookies, 1998 Table 6-12: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Little Debbie and Mother's Cookies, 1998 Table 6-13: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Any Nabisco, Nabisco Chips Ahoy!, Nabisco Chips Ahoy! Chewy, and Nabisco Chips Ahoy! Chunky Cookies, 1998 Table 6-14: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Nabisco Fat Free Newtons, Nabisco Fig Newtons, and Nabisco Fruit Newtons, 1998 Table 6-15: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Nabisco Nilla, Nabisco Oreo, and Nabisco SnackWell's, 1998 Table 6-16: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Any Pepperidge Farm, Any Sunshine, Sunshine Hydrox, and Sunshine Vienna Fingers, 1998 Table 6-17: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Private Label Cookies, 1998 The Consumer: Snack Cakes
For Snack Cakes, Presence of Children and Household Size Are Most Influential Table 6-18: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Any Snack Cakes, 1998 Heavy Use of Snack Cakes Is Most Common Table 6-19: Household Use of Snack Cakes, by Frequency of Use, 1998 (number and percent): heavy, moderate, light Factors in Frequency of Snack Cake Use Heavy Moderate Light Table 6-20: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Snack Cakes, by Frequency of Use, 1998 Little Debbie Dominates Snack Cake Brand Use Table 6-21: Household Use of Snack Cakes, by Brand, 1998 (number and percent): 13 brands Socioeconomic Condition Separates Brands Table 6-22: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Dolly Madison, Drake's, and Entenmann's Snack Cakes, 1998 Table 6-23: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Any Hostess, Hostess Twinkies, and Hostess Cupcakes Snack Cakes, 1998 Table 6-24: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Little Debbie, Sara Lee, and TastyKake Snack Cakes, 1998 The Consumer: Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, and Pies
For Frozen Sweet Baked Goods, an Older, Less Affluent Skew Table 6-25: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, Pies 1998 Pies, Pastries, Cakes Are Most Used Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Table 6-26: Household Use of Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, Pies (number and percent): Pies, Pastries, Cakes, Muffins Similar Patterns of Use for Frozen Sweet Baked Goods by Type Table 6-27: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, Pies, by Type, 1998 Majority of Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Consumers Use at Moderate or Light Frequencies Table 6-28: Household Use of Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, Pies, by Frequency, 1998 Frozen Sweet Baked Goods: Factors in Frequency of Use Table 6-29: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, Pies, by Frequency, 1998 Mrs. Smith's and Sara Lee Are Dominant Brands of Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Table 6-30: Household Brand Use of Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, Pies (number and percent) 4 brands Brands of Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Also Show Older Skew—But Greater Affluence Table 6-31: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Mrs. Smith's, Pepperidge Farm, and Sara Lee Brands of Frozen Cakes, Muffins, Pastries, Pies, Most Often, 1998 The Consumer: Toaster Pastries
Younger to Middle Aged, Middle Income Shoppers Choose Toaster Pastries Table 6-32: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Toaster Pastries, 1998 Pop Tarts Clearly Most Favored Brand of Toaster Pastries Table 6-33: Household Use of Toaster Pastries, by Brand, 1998 (number and percent): 4 brands Socioeconomic Standing and Age Distinguish Use of Major Brands Table 6-34: Demographic Factors in Household Use of Toaster Pastries, by Brand The Consumer: Breakfast Pastries
Very Few Key Factors in Overall Breakfast Pastry Use Table 6-35: Demographic Factors in Household Use of Breakfast Pastries, 1998 Cinnamon Rolls By Far the Most Widely Used Breakfast Pastry Table 6-36: Household Use of Breakfast Pastries, by Type, 1998 (number and percent): 6 types No Surprises in Breakfast Pastry Use by Type Table 6-37: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Cinnamon Rolls, Coffee Cake, Danish, and Honey Buns Breakfast Pastries, 1998 Table 6-38: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Sweet Rolls, Turnovers, and Other Breakfast Pastries, 1998 Little Debbie Leads the Pack in Breakfast Pastry Brand Use Table 6-39: Household Use of Breakfast Pastries, by Brand (number and percent): 9 brands Breakfast Pastry Brand Profiles Vary on Points of Income, Occupation, Age Table 6-40: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Dolly Madison and Entenmann's Breakfast Pastries Most Often, 1998 Table 6-41: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Hostess, Little Debbie, and Private Label Breakfast Pastries, 1998 The Consumer: Doughnuts
For Doughnuts, a Typical Sweet Baked Goods Audience Table 6-42: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Doughnuts, 1998 Hostess Has Commanding Lead in Brand Popularity Table 6-43: Household Use of Doughnuts, by Brand, 1998 (number and percent): 5 brands In Doughnut Brand Use, Few Exceptions to General Market Pattern Table 6-44: Demographic Factors Favoring Most Often Household Use of Dolly Madison, Entenmann's, Hostess, and Little Debbie Doughnuts, 1998 The Consumer: Muffins
Yet Again, a Typical Sweet Baked Goods Consumer Profile Table 6-45: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Muffins, 1998 In Terms of Use, Private Label and Hostess Are Strongest Muffin Brands Table 6-46: Household Use of Muffins, by Brand, 1998 (number and percent): 4 brands Brand Use of Muffins Exhibits Few Novel Skews Table 6-47: Demographic Factors Favoring Household Use of Entenmann's, Hostess, Sara Lee, and Private Label Muffins, 1998 |
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