Non-GMO Foods: U.S. Market Perspective

Sep 11, 2013
168 Pages - Pub ID: LA5070492
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Non-GMO Foods: U.S. Market Perspective

One of the biggest consumer concerns in the food industry today is whether or not foods made using ingredients from genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are safe for human consumption. Related to this controversy is the issue of whether GMO crops are safe for the environment. In addition, advocacy groups are concerned that a few international conglomerates, through their ownership of GMO technology, can gain or consolidate excessive dominance of the global food supply.

There is widespread agreement within the scientific community that GMOs pose no threat to the environment or human health. Nevertheless, there is a broad base of concern among advocacy groups about GMOs, a concern driven in part by fear of unknown ramifications. 
  
Packaged Facts’ report Non-GMO Foods: U.S. Market Perspective looks at the positive and negative data about GMOs; the body of opinion on the topic; the regulatory environment for GMOs; the stakeholders in the controversy; market size and projections for non-GMO products; and marketing and new product trends. The report also delves into the current initiatives at the federal and state level to create mandatory GMO labeling of food and beverages that contain ingredients from genetically modified sources.


Scope and Methodology

Packaged Facts’ report Non-GMO Foods: U.S. Market Perspective covers the market for non-GMO products sold through all types of retail outlets.  Market estimates within this report were based on both public and syndicated data sources. Packaged Facts has analyzed available sales and trend data, together with information pertaining to those products that move through unmonitored outlets, to estimate the total non-GMO market size.

Data sources used and/or consulted for market, sales, and consumer estimates include:
  • IRI sales tracking through U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores, drugstores, and mass merchandisers (including Target and Kmart, but excluding Walmart) with annual sales of $2 million or more.
  • U.S. Census Bureau retail food sales data from the Economic Census surveys, annual retail channel sales, non-employer statistics.
  • U.S. Bureau of Economic analysis annual estimates for consumer spending by food type
  • The Experian Marketing Services (Experian Information Solutions, Inc.), Winter 2013 NCS Adult Study 12-month
  • Major food and beverage retailer annual reports for individual retailer sales
Non-GMO Foods: U.S. Market Perspective also draws on a proprietary Packaged Facts National Consumer Survey, conducted in June 2013 with a sample size of 2,000 U.S. adults age 18+. The sample composition is representative of the national population by gender, age bracket, geographic region, race/ethnicity, household income bracket, and presence of children in the household.

Information on new product introductions was derived from examination of the retail milieu and from relevant trade, business, and government sources, including company literature and annual reports.
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Scope and Methodology of the Report
Scope
Definition
Mandatory and Voluntary Labeling Issues
Non-GMO Market Size: Labeled vs. Unlabeled
Methodology
Packaged Facts National Consumer Survey
GMO Context and Issues
Heated Controversy Surrounds GMO
Examples of GMO Plants
Presence of GMO in U.S. Food Products
The Regulatory Environment
Labeling for GMO Products
The Public Relations War
Benefits and Dangers of GMO
Pro-GMO Side Emphasizes Safety and Benefits
Anti-GMO Side Not Satisfied
Conflict Shifts to Labeling Issue
Stakeholders in the GMO Controversy
The Regulatory Environment
GMO in the Marketplace
Product Trends and Developments
Consumer Attitudes and Behavior
Market Forecast
Table 1-1: Varying Sales Projections for Non-GMO Foods and Beverages, 2017 (in billions of dollars)
Chapter 2: GMO-Context and Issues
Key Points
Heated Controversy Surrounds GMO
Why the Controversy?
What Are GMOs?
Non-GMO Foods: U.S. Market Perspective Table of Contents
September 2013 © Packaged Facts ii
History and Development
GMOs a Continuation of Agricultural Development
Development of Genetic Theory
Current Controversies Date Back to First GMO Product
Examples of GMO Plants
Presence of GMO in U.S. Food Products
The Regulatory Environment
GMO Self-Regulation
GMO Salmon Case
Labeling for GMO Products
Labeling Action at the Federal Level
Labeling Action at the State Level
Non-GMO Labeling
Certified Organic Labeling
The Public Relations War
Political Element to GMO Opposition
What Would GMO Labels Look Like?
The Bottom Line: Are GMOs Safe?
Chapter 3: Benefits and Dangers of GMO
Key Points
Countering the Anti-GMO Arguments
The Plus Side of GMOs
Potential Dangers of GMO
Limited Hard Evidence on Anti-GMO Side
Animal-Based Studies Raise Questions
Involvement of GMO Companies in Research
Refuting Pro-GMO Arguments
Rejection of Increased Crop Yield Position
Questioning Environmental Safety
Unwanted Spread of GMO
GMO Labeling: For and Against
The Campaign for Mandatory GMO Labeling
The Case Against GMO Labeling
The Cost Issue
Voluntary Non-GMO Labeling Echoes BST-Free Labeling
Chapter 4: The Stakeholders
Key Points
Broad Range of Stakeholders Involved in GMO/Non-GMO Issues
Illustration 4-1 GMO Stakeholders
U.S. Government Agencies
Food and Drug Administration
Voluntary Non-GMO Labeling Approved
Illustration 4-2 Non-GMO Project Verified Logo
The Genetically Engineered Food Right-to-Know Act
GMO Labeling and the Definition of “Natural”
Environmental Protection Agency
U.S. Department of Agriculture
International Organizations
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
World Health Organization
State Legislatures/Propositions
California’s Proposition 37
Non-GMO Strategy
Food and Ingredient Manufacturers
GMO Food and Ingredient Companies
AquaBounty Technologies
Archer Daniels Midland
BASF Plant Science
Bayer CropScience
ConAgra
Dow Agrosciences
DuPont
Monsanto
PepsiCo
Syngenta
Anti-GMO Food and Ingredient Companies
Amy's Kitchen
Clif Bar & Company
Frontier Natural Products Co-op
Lundberg Family Farms
Mercola Health Resources
Nature’s Path
Organic Valley
Stonyfield Farm
Food Retailers
Whole Foods
Trader Joe’s
Walmart
Pro-GMO Organizations and Associations
Focus on Labeling Issue
Biology Fortified, Inc.
Biotechnology Industry Organization
Center for Science in the Public Interest
Council for Biotechnology Information
CropLife International
Genetic Literacy Project
Grocery Manufacturers Association
International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications
Organizations and Associations Questioning GMO
Center for Food Safety
Consumers Union
Friends of the Earth
Just Label It!
Natural Products Association
Non-GMO Project
Organic Trade Association
Chapter 5: The Regulatory Environment
Key Points
The U.S. Regulatory Environment in the Global Context
Change on Horizon for UK?
Federal Regulation of GMOs
No Change in GMO Regulation Anticipated
USDA’s Fast Track GMO Crops
Pressure Building for GMO Labeling
Global Context for GMO Labeling
FDA’s Traditional Position
GMO Stakeholders Consider Shift
Genetically Engineered Food Right-to-Know Act
Illustration 5-1: S. 809: Genetically Engineered Food Right-to-Know Act
GMO Labeling Amendment to Farm Bill
Courts Put Pressure on FDA to Act
Illustration 5-2: Excerpt From U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzales Rogers Ruling of June 11, 2013
Judicial Dissent
FDA and USDA Accept Non-GMO Project Verifications
Regulatory Action at the State Level
California’s Proposition 37
Connecticut’s Regional Plan
Non-GMO Foods: U.S. Market Perspective Table of Contents
September 2013 © Packaged Facts v
Illustration 5-3: Key Section of Connecticut House Bill 6527: An Act Concerning Genetically-Engineered Food
Maine Quickly Follows Connecticut
Status of Other Northeastern State Initiatives
Table 5-1: GMO Labeling Bills Pending in Northeastern States
Washington State Expected to be Next Major Battleground
Illustration 5-4: Key Points From Washington State Ballot Initiative Measure 522
Other State GMO Labeling Initiatives
Chapter 6: GMO in the Marketplace
Key Points
Packaged Facts National Consumer Survey
Discounters Account for 30% of Non-GMO Sales
Table 6-1: Share of Sales of Non-GMO Labeled Foods and Beverages by Retail Channel, 2013 (percentage share)
Figure 6-1: Share of Sales of Non-GMO Labeled Foods and Beverages by Retail Channel, 2013 (percentage share)
Non-GMO Consumers Are Exceptionally Likely to Shop at Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s
Table 6-2: Preferred Mainstream/Mass Grocery Channels Among Consumers Worried About GMOs vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-3: Preferred Natural Foods Grocery Channels Among Consumers Worried About GMOs vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-4: Preferred Specialty/Independent Grocery Channels Among Consumers Worried About GMOs vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-5: Preferred Mainstream/Mass Grocery Channels Among Consumers Who Buy Non-GMO Labeled Products vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-6: Preferred Natural Foods Grocery Channels Among Consumers Who Buy Non-GMO Labeled Products vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-7: Preferred Specialty/Independent Grocery Channels Among Consumers Who Buy Non-GMO Labeled Products vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-8: Preferred Mainstream/Mass Grocery Channels AmongConsumers Who Buy Organic Groceries to Avoid GMOs vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-9: Preferred Natural Foods Grocery Channels Among Consumers Who Buy Organic Groceries to Avoid GMOs vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-10: Preferred Specialty/Independent Grocery Channels Among Consumers Who Buy Organic Groceries to Avoid GMOs vs.Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Non-GMO Consumers Prefer Grocery Stores That Provide Organic and Locally Sourced Products
Table 6-11: Grocery Products Most Important to Consumers Worried About GMOs vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-12: Grocery Products Most Important to Consumers Who Buy Non-GMO Labeled Products vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Table 6-13: Grocery Products Most Important to Consumers Who Buy Organic to Avoid GMOs vs. Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
GMO Consumers Are Mindful Shoppers
Table 6-14: Shopping Attitudes and Behaviors of GMO Consumers vs.
Total Population, June 2013 (percent of U.S. consumers)
Whole Foods a Trailblazer in Retailer Transparency
Chipotle Pioneers GMO Disclosure for Restaurants
Illustration 6-1: Chipotle Mexican Grill’s Online Disclosure for Menu Items
Chapter 7: Product Trends and Developments
Key Points
Methodology
Product Launches Increase by 9% Annually
Table 7-1: Share of Non-GMO Labeled New Product Introductions by Year, 2009-2013 (percent of new products)
Leading Product Categories Range from Nuts to Soup
Salty Snacks
Snack Bars & Confectionery
Meals, Entrees, & Side Dishes
Condiments & Ingredients
Juice & Juice Drinks
Kids
Dairycase
Bakery
Fruits & Vegetables
Breakfast
Meat & Meat Substitutes
Salty Snacks, Snack Bars Account for 30% of New Non-GMO Products
Table 7-2: Share of Non-GMO Labeled New Product Introductions by Category, 2009-2013 (percent of new products)
Gluten-Free, Natural, Organic Among Top Claims With Non-GMO
Superfruits, Coconut, Ancient Grains Among the Leading Ingredient Trends
New Non-GMO Products and Verification Status
Table 7-3: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Salty Snacks, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-1: Beanfields Bean & Rice Chips (Beanfields)
Illustration 7-2: Beanitos White Bean Chips (Beanitos Inc.)
Illustration 7-3: Lundberg Organic Rice Chips (Lundberg Family Farms)
Illustration 7-4: Hummuz Crispz (Mediterranean Snacks)
Illustration 7-5: Lentil Crackers (Mediterranean Snacks)
Illustration 7-6: FIT popcorn (Popcorn, Indiana)
Illustration 7-7: Saffron Road Crunchy Chickpeas (American Halal Co.)
Table 7-4: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Snack Bars & Confectionery, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-8: Nature’s Path Chewy Granola Bars (Nature's Path Foods)
Illustration 7-9: NibMor Organic Chocolate Bars (NibMor, Inc.)
Illustration 7-10: Pascha Passionately Pure Organic Dark Chocolate bars (Pascha Company)
Illustration 7-11: Pure Fruit Sandwiches (Pure)
Illustration 7-12: Theo Organic Fair Trade Chocolate Bars (Theo Chocolate)
Table 7-5: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Meals, Entrees, & Side Dishes, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-13: Lundberg Olde World Pilaf (Lundberg Family Farms)
Illustration 7-14: Saffron Road Chana Saag (American Halal Co.)
Illustration 7-15: Saffron Road chapatti wraps (American Halal Co.)
Table 7-6: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Condiments & Ingredients, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-16: Chocolate Melt Organic (Prosperity Organic Foods, Inc.)
Illustration 7-17: Saffron Road Simmer Sauce (American Halal Co.)
Illustration 7-18: Wholesome Sweeteners Organic Coconut Palm Sugar (Wholesome Sweeteners)
Illustration 7-19: Follow Your Heart High Omega Vegan Bleu Cheese (Follow Your Heart)
Illustration 7-20: Sir Kensington's Mayonnaise (Kensington & Sons, LLC)
Table 7-7: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Juice & Juice Drinks, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-21: Golazo All Natural Sports Hydration (Golazo Inc.)
Table 7-8: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Kids, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-22: Tasty Brand Organic Cookies (Tasty Brand, Inc.)
Illustration 7-23: Tasty Brand Fruit Gummies (Tasty Brand, Inc.)
Table 7-9: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Dairycase, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-24: Earth Balance Organic Soy Nog (Boulder Brands/GFABrands, Inc.)
Illustration 7-25: Good Karma Protein+ Flaxmilk (Good Karma Food Technologies, Inc.)
Illustration 7-26: Rumiano Family Organic Cheese (Rumiano Cheese Company)
Illustration 7-27: WholeSoy & Co. Soy Yogurt (WholeSoy & Co.)
Table 7-10 Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Bakery, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-28: Annie’s Organic Graham Crackers (Annie's Homegrown)
Illustration 7-29: Silver Hills Sprouted Bakery Sprouted Ancient Grain Whole Grain buns (Silver Hills Bakery)
Table 7-11: Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Breakfast, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-30: Kashi Blackberry Hills (Kashi Company)
Illustration 7-31: Nature’s Path Organic Granola (Nature's Path Foods)
Illustration 7-32: Chiarezza! (OMG Foods Inc.)
Table 7-12 Selected New Non-GMO Labeled Food and Beverage Products: Meat & Meat Substitutes, 2011-2013
Illustration 7-33: Hearty Hemp Seed Veggie Patty (Chez Marie)
Illustration 7-34: Mary's Chicken (Pitman Family Farms)
Illustration 7-35: Mindful Meats (Mindful Meats)
Illustration 7-36: SoL Cuisine Burgers (SoL Cuisine Inc.)
Illustration 7-37: SoL Cuisine Sliders (SoL Cuisine Inc.)
Chapter 8: Consumer Attitudes and Behavior
Key Points
Packaged Facts National Consumer Survey
Nearly Half of Consumers Express GMO Concerns
Table 8-1: Concern About GMO Food Products, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Urban Mothers of Young Children Are Most Concerned
Table 8-2: Relative Degree of Concern About GMO Food Products by Demographic Classification, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-3: Relative Degree of Concern About GMO Food Products by Demographic Segment, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Non-GMO Labeling Not Of High Importance
Table 8-4: Importance of Non-GMO Labeling on Grocery Purchases, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Contrasts by Age and Geographical Area Are Significant
Table 8-5: Relative Propensity to Buy Groceries Labeled Non-GMO by Demographic Classification, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-6: Relative Propensity to Buy Groceries Labeled Non-GMO by Demographic Segment, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Organic Products an Avenue to GMO Foods
Table 8-7: Tendency to Purchase Organic Groceries to Avoid GMOs, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
GMO a Factor for All Organic Food Buyers
Table 8-8: Propensity to Buy Organic Foods and Beverages, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Demographics in Buying Organic Mirror Non-GMO Labeling
Contrasts
Table 8-9: Relative Propensity to Purchase Organic Groceries to Avoid
GMOs by Demographic Classification, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Table 8-10: Relative Propensity to Purchase Organic Groceries to Avoid GMOs by Demographic Segment, June 2013 (percent of consumers)
Chapter 9: Market Forecast
Key Points
Components of the Non-GMO Food and Beverage Market
Definition of “Organic”
Definition of “Natural”
Other Non-GMO Products
Size of the Non-GMO Market
Table 9-1: U.S. Retail Sales of Natural and Organic Foods and Beverages, 2006-2015 (in billions of dollars)
Non-GMO Sales to Reach $265 Billion by 2017
Table 9-2: U.S. Retail Sales of Non-GMO Foods and Beverages, 2012-2017 (in billions of dollars)
Several Factors Will Drive Non-GMO Growth
Locavore Movement
Figure 9-1: Growth of Farmers Markets, 1996-2013
Non-GMO Labeling Builds Sales
Natural Labeling Also a Factor
Greater Non-GMO Growth Possible
State-by-State Mandatory Labeling
Federal Mandatory Labeling
Federal Definition of Natural
Increased Consumer Interest in Non-GMO Labeling
GMO Disaster
Slower Non-GMO Growth Also Possible
Table 9-3: Sales Projections for Non-GMO Foods and Beverages, 2017 (in billions of dollars)
Appendix: Addresses of Selected Stakeholders
Suppliers and Marketers
Agencies, Associations, Organizations

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