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Although the 2008-2009 recession took a notable toll, natural and organic pet products continue as a top-growth market segment on their way to becoming the standard for premium pet products in the pet specialty channel and other upscale venues. Doing their part, all of the major mass-market and cross-channel marketers are tapping into the trend as well, keeping pressure on smaller marketers to scale up their product offerings even further. Most recently, in mid 2010 Procter & Gamble rocked the pet food industry by acquiring Natura Pet Products, whose natural and organic pet food brands include Innova, Evo, California Natural and Karma-a move that suggests that the natural pet food party is just getting started on the mass-market side.

Also underpinning steady market advancement is consumer demand for products perceived to be safer, an appeal that got a big boost from the Spring 2007 recalls and one that continues to define the way marketers formulate and position products. According to pet owner surveys conducted by Packaged Facts, 40% of dog owners and 38% of cat owners purchase natural/organic pet products; nearly half of pet owners would buy more natural/organic pet products if they were more affordable; and almost two-fifths would do so if they were more available. Featuring exclusive consumer data such as these, the report homes in on food and nonfood purchasing trends across multiple categories, as well as attitudes and demographic characteristics of natural and organic pet product purchasers.

Building on the analysis presented in the previous two editions of this report, Natural, Organic and Eco-Friendly Pet Products in the U.S., 3rd Edition divides the market into two classifications-pet food and pet care-with the latter defined as encompassing all nonfood pet supplies (cat litter, grooming products, flea/tick care products, supplements, clean-up products, etc.). For each classification, coverage includes historical and projected retail sales estimates from 2005 through 2014, competitive strategies of key players, and trends in new product development such as human-grade pet food, raw/frozen pet food, fresh (refrigerated) pet food, eco-friendly nonfood pet products, corporate sustainability initiatives, and cause marketing. Additional data sources include SymphonyIRI marketer/brand sales data for mass-market channels, SPINSscan data for the natural supermarket channel, Datamonitor Product Launch Analytics data tracking new product introductions, and Experian Simmons data profiling trends in pet ownership and product purchasing.

About the Author

David Lummis is the senior pet market analyst for Packaged Facts. He is also author of the monthly "Market Outlook" column in Pet Product News International, and a regular contributor of articles and market insight to other pet industry magazines as well as major business media including The New York Times and CNNMoney. Mr. Lummis also is President of New Orleans-based Marigny Research Group, Inc., a producer of custom market research reports for Packaged Facts. Since 1986, MRG has prepared more than 175 studies on consumer packaged goods markets and developed full report lines covering pet, demographic, retail and financial markets. Mr. Lummis, who graduated from Yale University, has also written approximately 75 other published B2B reports and is the author of the book, "Value Retailing in the 1990s."

Additional Information

Market Insights: A Selection From The Report

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Availability and Affordability as Impediment to Natural Product Purchasing

According to Packaged Facts survey data, 39% of pet owners agree that they would buy natural/organic pet products more often if these products were more available where they shop, compared with 29% who disagree.  Among those agreeing with this statement, the larger share “somewhat agree” rather than “strongly agree” (at 26% vs. 12%, respectively).  Not surprisingly, particularly in a price-conscious era of economic doldrums, affordability is an even bigger issue than availability.  Among pet owners overall, half (52%) agree that they would buy natural/organic pet products more often if these products were more affordable, compared with only 22% who disagree.  Moreover, 19% strongly agree that they would do so, compared with only 10% who strongly disagree.

Locally Sourced Ingredients

The 2007 recalls also spurred interest in products made from ingredients that are locally grown, a trend that dovetails with such “green” initiatives as fostering smaller carbon footprints and reducing “food miles” (the distance a food must travel from point of origin to end user).  Following the recalls, human-grade organic pet food producer Evanger’s trumpeted that it buys all of its ingredients locally, purchasing most of them within 40 miles of its plant.  Similarly, Freshpet told the press that all of the ingredients in its refrigerated pet foods “are fresh, never frozen or preprocessed prior to cooking and all are locally sourced from the United States using stringent quality standards.”

Packaged Facts believes “locally grown” retains strong potential as a pet food sales proposition during 2010 and beyond.  Trends in the pet food market don’t just follow human trends, they often do so at accelerated rates, and the trend toward locally grown is already in full swing on the human side.  In our May 2007 report, Fresh and Local Foods in the U.S., Packaged Facts conservatively estimates that locally grown food could be a $7 billion business by 2011, almost double the 2002 level.  This forecast is based on trends including the rapid growth of farmers’ markets, consumer perceptions that locally grown products are tastier and healthier, consumers’ growing desire to support their local economy, and corporate support for sustainable agriculture.  [Figure 5-2] In the News

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New York, June 16, 2010 — Procter & Gamble has already rocked the pet food industry in May 2010 by announcing plans to buy Natura Pet Products, a privately held producer of natural and organic pet food under brands including Innova, Evo, California Natural, Healthwise, Mother Nature, and Karma.  But David Lummis, senior pet market analyst for Packaged Facts and author of the all-new market study Natural, Organic and Eco-Friendly Pet Products in the U.S., 3rd Edition believes the big news may be yet to break.  “Based on Procter & Gamble’s core distribution strengths and past history with Iams, I suspect that 2010 will see a key Natura brand cross over into mass channels, which would be a very big deal.”

During 1999, Procter & Gamble purchased Iams.  And shortly thereafter P&G expanded the brand from pet specialty to mass with tremendous success.  According to Lummis’ market analysis, the timing is right for a similar move with a Natura brand, for a number of reasons.  Among these, some pet food consumers traded down during the recession and are now ripe for more affordable options in premium pet food, including organic and natural.

Bearing out this assessment is a survey of 1,881 consumers conducted by Packaged Facts in May/June 2010.  According to the survey:

• Approximately one-third (34%) of pet owners agree (strongly or somewhat) that they are “spending less on pet products these days because of the economy.”  However, the same percentage also agree with the statement “I anticipate spending more on pet products over the next 12 months.”
• Natural dog and cat food purchasers are even more likely than dog or cat owners overall to plan to spend more—perhaps partially a function of the natural segment’s often upscale demographics bouncing back more quickly.
• A little price adjustment may be just what the doctor ordered for bringing more consumers into (or back into) the natural camp.  “If natural/organic pet products were more affordable where I shop, I would buy them more often,” agree over half of pet owners (51%), with only 23% disagreeing with this statement.
• 39% of pet owners agree that they would buy natural/organic pet products more often if these products were more available where they shop, compared with 29% who disagree.

“What these figures tell me is that the time is ripe for a ‘true’ natural brand to enter the mass channel,” Lummis says.  “And now that Natura is, pending regulatory approval, under Procter & Gamble’s wing, P&G is the perfect company to make that happen.  If P&G does take a Natura brand mass, it would broaden the consumer base for natural pet food virtually overnight.  It could also spur Mars to follow a similar path with its Nutro brand, and Nestlé Purina to consider acquiring a ‘true’ natural band of its own.”

The complete findings of this survey—which also details usage and consumer demographics of natural pet products across categories including dog food, cat food, natural/alternative litter, and natural flea and tick care products—are presented in Natural, Organic and Eco-Friendly Pet Products in the U.S., 3rd Edition.

Natural, Organic and Eco-Friendly Pet Products in the U.S., 3rd Edition divides the market into two classifications—pet food and pet care—with the latter defined as encompassing all nonfood pet supplies (cat litter, grooming products, pet supplements, clean-up products, etc.). For each classification, coverage includes historical and projected retail sales estimates from 2005 through 2014, competitive strategies and trends among key players, and trends in new product development including organic, human-grade, U.S. sourced, raw/frozen, and sustainable.

About Packaged Facts - Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com, publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, including consumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products and services, and financial products. Packaged Facts also offers a full range of custom research services.

Pet Market Insights From Analyst David Lummis

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Packaged Facts Column for Petfood Industry/1st Quarter 2010

State of the Industry
True to the pet industry’s recession-resistant claim to fame, sales of pet products and services rose 4.8% in 2009 to reach $53 billion, meaning that the market added two and a half billion dollars in the midst of the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression.  That said, pet market growth has not been uniform across areas of the market, with the less discretionary categories of food and veterinary services faring the best, and non-essential products and services faring the worst.  Sales of veterinary services rose nearly 10% in 2009, followed by petfood at 5%, non-food supplies at 3%, and other pet services at 4%, according to Packaged Facts’ March 2010 Pet Market Outlook 2010-2011 report.

Moreover, while the recession is officially over, no one expects consumer confidence and spending to rebound overnight, with most economists predicting a slow recovery.  And no marketer or retailer can afford to ignore recessionary effects on consumer shopping patterns that could linger for years.  To weather the economic storm, many Americans reprioritized shopping lists along essential vs. discretionary lines, reevaluated channel loyalties based on factors including convenience and discounts, and traded across categories and brands.  For example, although dog and cat food sales rose 7% in 2009 according to Information Resources, Inc. data for supermarkets, drugstores and mass merchandisers except Walmart, this high rate of growth derives in part from slower going in the pet specialty channel.

In short, the word “restraint” will continue to characterize how Americans shop and what they buy in the years ahead, making petfood appeals based on health, safety, convenience, comfort, practicality and professionalism more important than ever in wooing the nation’s 61 million pet-owning households and meeting the needs of their nearly 400 million pets.  At the same time, there’s still plenty of room for pet pampering and indulgence positioned squarely on the human/animal bond, as reflected in dog biscuits/treats and cat snacks 2009 sales gains of 8% and 15%, respectively, per IRI.

Value, Value and Value
During 2010, the most effective strategy for all pet market players can be summed in a word:  Value.  Because this common denominator takes on different meanings for different consumer groups, Packaged Facts segments pet owners into three fairly evenly sized cohorts, each of which defines and responds to the notion of value in its own way.

• Value-Critical Pet Owners tend to not view high prices as a primary petfood purchasing criterion, spending 25%-50% more than pet owners on average.  However, they do expect the products they buy to deliver tangible health benefits and emotional rewards, and will be the first to say so if they don’t.  Not surprisingly, this group comprises higher-income households as well as those who view their pets as full-fledged members of the family.  Because these dog and cat owners associate petfood and treats closely with pet health, they are the most ingredient-aware group and the least likely to switch brands absent a good reason.
• Value-Influenced Pet Owners view pricing as a top petfood purchasing criterion.  Unlike value-driven consumers (see below), price is not, however, their foremost shopping draw, and they may be swayed in either premium or value directions.  This is the group Walmart is going after with its “exact same brands as those found in the pet specialty channel at unbeatable prices” campaign (which features the mass/specialty bridge brand Iams).  It’s also the target for PetSmart’s new TV commercials offering up to 20% savings on hundreds of items.  As this price-centered duel suggests, a fierce tug of war for value-influenced pet owners is underway, with a growing proportion of the group shopping both mass and pet specialty, and with the weak economy giving the latter a leg up.
• Value-Driven Pet Owners base their petfood purchase primarily on price.  Although this does not preclude seeking out higher quality foods, this is the group most likely to hold the opinion that there’s little if any difference between national and store brands.  With the winds of the recession beneath its wings, private label increased its share of petfood sales to 11% ($622 million) in 2009, up from 10% ($543 million) in 2008, according to IRI, with value-driven pet owners likely representing the bulk of that 15% increase.

By focusing heavily on any one of these value groups, petfood marketers increase their chances of success during these still iffy economic times.  Even better, many companies and brands are well positioned to attract value-influenced pet owners in addition to one of the other groups, and during the coming year and beyond those “middle of the road” consumers will determine the fortunes of many pet market players.

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Pets International, Issue 3/2010

U.S. Pet Supplies Market Expecting Pent-Up Demand
Retail Sales Near $11 Billion in 2009

Packaged Facts estimates that U.S. retail sales of non-food pet supplies totaled approximately $10.7 billion in 2009, up 2.5% over 2008.  During the five-year 2005-2009 period, the market increased by a total of 17.6% and posted a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1%.  As a result of the economic recession, growth slowed in 2008 and 2009 as consumers reduced spending in non-essential categories and traded over to lower-priced products and value-oriented channels.

U.S. Retail Sales of Pet Supplies:  2005 vs. 2009
(in millions of dollars) Source:  Packaged Facts, The U.S. Market for Pet Supplies and Pet Care Products, 7th Edition report (January 2010)

Dogs account for the lion’s share of sales of pet supplies, at 61% in 2009, followed by cats at 33%.  The balance of sales goes to other animal types, with fish and reptiles slightly edging out birds and small animals, at 55% to 45%, respectively.  Flea/tick products are the top-selling dog category by a significant margin, accounting for almost one-quarter (23%) of dog supply sales during 2009 (inclusive of products restricted to the veterinary channel).  The cat side of the aisle is dominated by the staple litter, which accounted for 43% of cat supply sales during 2009.

Duo the Leading Retail Force
In the U.S. market, pet stores are the top channel for non-food pet supplies by a considerable margin, representing nearly half (46%) of sales in 2009.  Most of these pet specialty sales trace back to PetSmart and Petco, which together accounted for almost a third (31%) of the market in 2009, with independents pulling in less than half that amount (15%).  Supermarkets continue to slide, to 10% in 2009, while mass merchandisers continue to rise.  From 2005 to 2009, the mass sector’s market share went from 22% to 23%, no doubt benefiting from the recession as consumers traded down across brands and consolidated shopping trips. Another retailing bright spot is online, and with pet products showing up in a wider-than-ever array of channels, “other” channels’ collective share is also on the ups.

Mergers & Acquisitions Ongoing
Despite the global economic meltdown and uncertainties surrounding major financial and lending institutions, the pet market saw several mergers and acquisitions in 2008 and 2009.  On the non-food side, these included Bramton’s purchase of Veterinarian’s Best, Radio Systems’ purchase of MultiVet International, and Sergeant’s purchase of Chomp and of Virbac’s Consumer Brands division.  Activity has been slower on the pet food side, with no major shifts occurring either year, although Old Mother Hubbard/Wellness (a top brand in the pet specialty channel) went from one venture capitalist to another.  While still quite respectable, this level of activity pales in comparison to that seen earlier in the decade, with such dramatic shifts as Rayovac’s 2005 market entry and subsequent creation of Spectrum Brands, and Hartz’s summer 2004 acquisition by Japan’s Sumitomo.

2009 a Record Year for New Product Entries
The U.S. pet supplies market relies on new products as a principal sales driver, with upgrades and innovations constantly appearing to pique consumer interest and open retail doors, and marketers were apparently relying on new products more than ever during the economic downturn.  According to Product Launch Analytics, a Datamonitor service, the numbers of new product lines and stock-keeping units (SKUs) jumped sharply in 2009, with the number of reports increasing 57% to 213, and the number of SKUs increasing 84% to 735.  Considering the previous four-year period, this is the highest level of new product activity by far, with just 148 reports and 402 SKUs appearing in 2005.  Despite the weak U.S. economy, the top package tags and marketing claims make it clear that the pet market continues to shift in premium directions.  At the top of the list is natural, which appeared in 102 new product reports, up from 65 in 2008.

Economic Concerns Intensify Cross-Channel Competition
As of spring 2010, cross-channel competition is at an all-time high in the U.S. market as consumer trends adopted during the recession persist, from spending cutbacks to consolidated shopping trips.  Signs of the challenges retailers face include fierce competition between big-box pet specialty and mass, private-label incursions into non-food pet products, declining sales among independent pet specialty retailers, and price promotions across all retail sectors.  In such an environment, value-oriented retailers stand to cash in, as Walmart has been aggressively working to do.  According to Packaged Facts’ February 2010 pet owner poll, 52% of pet owners agree with the statement “I shop for pet products at a variety of stores to find the best prices, special offers, and sales,” with 16% strongly agreeing and 34% somewhat agreeing.  On the other hand, only 30% of survey respondents report that they do not engage in deal-seeking behavior of this sort.

With these same trends continuing into 2010, retailers are employing a variety of strategies to draw shoppers into the store, and cooperative promotional programs with vendors are going strong.  For retailers, one of the biggest advantages of co-op promotions is that the big consumer packaged goods outfits typically foot much of the bill, allowing retailers to impact trip decisions without compromising their own margins too drastically.  Coupon offers also can be highly effective in supporting store loyalty programs such as Petco’s PA.L.S. and PetSmart’s PetPerks, while forming the core of collaborative special events programs between retailers and manufacturers, à la PetSmart’s President’s Day sale featuring Hill’s Science Diet and its new lower pricing.

Looking Ahead
As a result, with the economy on a slow but apparently steady recovery path, Packaged Facts is predicting a better showing for pet supplies in 2010 as pent-up demand begins to kick in.  By our forecast, annual sales growth will rebound from 2.5% in 2009 to 4.0% during 2010, then climb back up to 5% in 2013 and 2014—an assessment that presumes much market dynamism moving forward.

Additional Materials

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Is Now A Good Time To Sell Pet Products Online?

by genesower on Wednesday, November 3rd, 2010

Natural Pets World asked David his thoughts about starting an ecommerce pet business in a down economy and he offered these insightful thoughts in this 90-second excerpt:

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