2023 US Credit Card Market Outlook

 
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Published Jan 31, 2023 | 104 Pages | Pub ID: LA17634343
2023 US Credit Card Market Outlook

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Credit cards have come out of the pandemic stronger than ever: Adoption rates, usage frequency, and payment value have each reached new highs—and continued payment value growth is expected. But a host of challenges await, including usage normalization and the prospect of recession; buy now, pay later competition; and regulatory scrutiny of key revenue streams.

Packaged Facts’ 2023 Credit Card Market Outlook report provides comprehensive guidance on trends shaping credit card growth—including co-branded and private label cards, bank issuers, and card networks—and forecasts payment value growth through 2026. More specifically, the report:
  • Trends and forecasts credit card payment value by major payment network, including credit cards, debit cards, consumer credit cards, and small business credit cards.
  • Analyzes credit card usage trends by payment network, including standard, signature, small business, and other card types, with demographic analysis—and credit card usage trends by bank issuer, with demographic analysis.
  • Analyzes reward card trends, including share of card spend overall and type of reward earned (cash, points, miles).
  • Trends co-branded and private label credit card usage by card type/brand, with demographic analysis.
  • Trends and analyzes household debt and spending behavior, including loan delinquencies, the debt service ratio, active credit card users, share of consumer payment volume and value made by payment method, and general-purpose credit card payment value share of consumer expenditures.
  • Trends and analyzes important credit card metrics, including account growth rates and application rates, future application intention, outstanding credit card balances, share of consumers who revolve their credit card balances.
  • Identifies and analyzes credit card regulation pain points, including interest, late fees, and merchant fees.
  • Analyzes credit card innovation trends, including travel and entertainment portals, expanding credit access; trends digital payment service usage by Digital wallet, with demographic analysis; and analyzed contactless payment usage for digital wallets and cards, with demographic analysis.

  • Executive Summary
    • Scope of Report
    • Report Methodology
    • Market Overview
      • Macro Trends
      • Credit Card Industry Drivers
      • Credit Card Regulation Trends
      • Credit Card Payment Value Trends
      • Credit Card Usage Trends by Payment Network and Bank Issuer
      • Rewards, Co-Branded, and Private Label Credit Card Usage Trends
      • Credit Card Innovation Trends
  • Macro Trends
    • Staying Strong: Household Debt and Spending Trends
      • Household Debt Balances Above Pre-Pandemic Levels by $2.4 Trillion
        • Table Household Debt, by Type, with Quarterly and Annual Percentage Change, Q3 2022 ($billions)
      • Delinquency Rates on Current Debt Rise
        • Table Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent), Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2022 (% of individuals seriously delinquent)
      • But Household Debt Service Ratio Remains Well Below Great Recession Levels
    • But Spending Remains Robust
      • Card-Based Spending Remains Strong
      • Travel Spending Passes Pre-Pandemic Levels
    • Credit Card Payments Lead the Consumer Payment Charge
      • Cards Are More Prevalently Used Than Cash
        • Table Percentage of US Consumers Using a Payment Instrument In the Past 30 Days, by Instrument, 2021
      • Consumers Use Credit Cards For More Than One-Quarter Of Their Payments
        • Table Number of Payments Made per U.S. Consumer During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016 – 2021
        • Table Percentage Share of Payments Made per U.S. Consumer During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016 – 2021
      • Credit Card Dollar Share Of Consumer Payments Surpasses Debit
        • Table Dollar Value of Payments Made per U.S. Consumer During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016 – 2021
        • Table Percentage Share of Dollar Value of Payments Made per U.S. Consumers During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2021
      • General-Purpose Credit Cards Pick Up Consumer Spending Share
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value vs. Personal Consumer Expenditures, 2017 – 2022 ($billions)
    • Digital Engagement Strengthens
      • Online/Remote Payments Share On The Rise
        • Table Percentage Share of Purchases and P2P Payments Made In-Person Vs. Online/Remote, 2016 – 2021
    • Alternative Payments: An Increasingly Competitive Threat
      • BNPL Expected To Grow at 23.1% CAGR from 2022 to 2026
      • Putting Credit Card Issuers’ Volumes And Profits Under Threat
      • Credit Card Issuers Adopt Payment Flexibility Features To Adapt
  • Credit Card Industry Drivers
    • Expect Normalization
    • U.S. Quarterly Credit Card Account Growth Plateaus
    • Credit Card Application Trends Remain Strong
      • Application Rates Soar Above Pandemic Lows
      • High-FICO Skew
      • Future Application Intention Bodes Well for Demand
    • Credit Card Balances and Delinquencies Jump in 2022
    • The Card Revolver Situation
      • Consumer revolving behavior
        • Table Credit Card Users: Whether Balance Typically Carried: Consumer Demographics: Never/Rarely, Sometimes, Usually/Always, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022 (percentage share)
      • Credit Card Revolving Behavior: Demographics
        • Table Credit Card Users: Whether Balance Typically Carried: Consumer Demographics: Never/Rarely, Sometimes, Usually/Always, 2022 (percentage share)
  • Credit Card Regulation Trends
    • Credit card interest on the chopping block?
    • Credit card late fees in the crosshairs
    • Credit Card Competition Act could pressure network fees
    • CFPB studies the impact of card line decreases
  • Credit Card Payment Value Trends
    • General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value Trends
      • Credit card payment value share holds steady
      • Explosive 2022 credit card growth
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value, 2018 – 2022 ($billions)
      • And record merchant fee revenue
      • General-purpose credit card and debit card payment value forecast
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value, 2022 – 2026 ($billions)
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value, by Network, 2018 – 2022 ($billions)
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value Share, by Network, 2018 – 2022
    • General-Purpose Payment Value Trends: Consumer vs. Commercial
      • Consumer credit card payment value share grows
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value Share, Consumer vs. Commercial, 2018 – 2022 ($billions)
      • Visa: consumer and commercial consumer credit card payment value leader
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, Consumer vs. Commercial, by Network, 2018 –2022 ($billions)
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value Share, Consumer vs. Commercial, by Network 2018-2022
    • Small Business Credit Card Payment Value Surpasses $750 Billion
      • Visa small business credit cards increase lead over American Express
        • Table U.S. General-Purpose Small Business Credit Card Payment Value Share, by Network, 2017 – 2021 ($billions)
  • Credit Card Usage Trends by Payment Network and Bank Issuer
    • General-Purpose Credit Card Usage Trends, By Network
      • Trending in the right direction
        • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Usage Rates by Network: Have in Own Name, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
        • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Usage Rates by Network Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
        • Table Visa Credit Card Usage Rates by Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
        • Table Mastercard Credit Card Usage Rates by Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
        • Table American Express and Discover Credit Card Usage Rates by Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
      • General-Purpose Credit Cards Demographics by Network
        • Table Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic: Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Discover, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)
    • Chase Tops Bank Issuers
      • More than a quarter of U.S. adults have at least one Chase-branded credit card
        • Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Bank Issuer, 2018 – 2022
      • Credit Card Ownership Demographics Among Major Issuers
        • Table Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic: Leading Financial Institutions, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)
        • Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Bank Issuer and Generation, 2022
        • Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Bank Issuer and Race/Ethnicity, 2022
  • Rewards, Co-Branded, and Private Label Credit Card Usage Trends
    • Credit Cards Are On A Roll
      • Taking a bite out of cash
      • Usage penetration surpasses pre-pandemic levels
        • Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Type: Have in Own Name, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
      • Half of credit card users have at least three cards
        • Table Number of Credit Cards in Own Name, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
        • Table Number of Credit Cards in Own Name: Share, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022
    • Credit Card Rewards Make the World Go Round
      • Rewards cards generate 90% of general-purpose card spend
      • Deep subprime scorers are on the bandwagon
      • New redemption innovations
      • Sprucing up travel and entertainment rewards and perks
      • Cash is King
      • Cash-back cards also trump points and miles cards on adoption
        • Table Rewards Credit Card Usage Rates by Reward Type, 2021 – 2022
      • Cash for crypto?
      • Crypto cards
    • Co-Branded Credit Cards Weather the Storm
      • Three in 10 consumers have a co-branded credit card; department store cards falter
        • Table Co-Branded Credit Card Usage Rates by Brand, 2021 – 2022
      • Department store and discount store co-brands suffer longer-term declines
        • Table Co-Branded Department Store and Discount Store Credit Card Usage Rates, 2018 – 2022
      • Co-Branded Cardholder Demographics
        • Table Co-Branded Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic: Leading Types of Co-Branded Credit Cards, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)
      • Synchrony Financial reports continued growth
      • American Express rides Delta strength
      • Capital One makes its moves
      • Wells Fargo keeps private-label credit card unit—for now
      • Digital co-brands are the cards to beat
    • Private-Label Credit Cards Face Continued Challenges
      • Top card? Kohl’s Charge
      • But usage declines among top private-label cards continue
        • Table Private Label Credit Card Usage Rates by Brand, 2021 – 2022
      • Five-year trend: Target card goes against the grain
        • Table Selected Private Label Credit Card Usage Rates by Brand, 2018 – 2022
      • Private Label Cardholder Demographics
        • Table Private Label Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)
      • Retailer loyalty programs increasingly separate from private label enrollment
      • Major private label credit card issuers are diversifying into higher-growth areas
      • Times are tough: Victoria’s Secret and Kohl’s go cobrand
  • Credit Card Innovation Trends
    • The Power of Travel and Entertainment Portals
      • American Express: A pioneer continues to innovate
      • But the portal field is getting crowded
      • AMEX adds a twist
    • Expanding Credit Access
      • BNPL and credit cards lead the way
      • Thin file? There’s a credit card for you
      • Secured cards enjoying a renaissance?
      • Seamless upgrade to unsecured card
      • No credit score, no problem
      • Building credit as a family
      • Soft credit history pulls that don’t ding your credit score
    • Digital Payment Services Gain Traction—Credit Cards Left Behind
      • PayPal stays on top—but competitors are gaining ground
        • Table Digital Payments Service Usage, by Digital Payments Service Brand, 2018 – 2022
      • Digital Payment Service User Demographics
        • Table Digital Payments Service Usage by Consumer Demographic: PayPal, Venmo, Zelle, Apple Pay/Apple Cash, Cash App/Square Cash, and Google Pay, 2022 (percent of adults who have used in the last 30 days)
      • Credit cards lag other mobile app funding methods—but it varies by app
        • Table Share of Mobile App Payments Made, by Mobile App Brand and Funding Method, 2021
    • Contactless Card Issuance and Adoption
      • Contactless Wallet and Card User Demographics
        • Table Contactless Payments Made in Last 30 Days, by Consumer Demographic: Digital Payment Service vs. Credit/Debit Card, 2022 (percent of adults who have made a contactless payment in the last 30 days)
  • Appendix
    • Market size and forecast methodology
    • Definitions

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