Single-Cup Brew Beverage Products in the U.S.: Coffee Pods and Beyond, 2nd Edition

Published: November 6, 2015 - 132 Pages

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Report Scope
    • Report Summary
      • Market size, segmentation and forecast
    • Opportunities & challenges
      • The power of single-cup pricing
      • Private label onslaught
      • Margins and pricing dynamics
      • Widening the target audience
      • Widening beverage scope
      • Brewer diversity
    • Flavor and variety trends
      • Coffee flavors
      • Hot tea flavors
      • Single-cup private-label innovation
      • Single-cup packaging and branding introductions
      • Beyond coffee and tea: beverage variety trends
    • Single-cup & single-cup brewer usage trends
      • The coffee landscape: an overview
      • The single-cup/pod user
      • Single-cup brewer households
      • Automatic drip coffeemaker ownership falls with growth of single-cup systems
      • HH purchasing trends of brewing systems
      • Single-cup purchase patterns reach parity with drip coffee makers
      • Single-cup purchase patterns also suggest inroads among middle class
      • Keurig/pod users: home versus work
      • Younger workers likely tasked with procuring office coffee
      • The generational divide
      • Methods used to make coffee at home
      • Methods used to make tea at home
    • The at-home battle for brewer system and coffee type usage
      • Household cross-use of coffee types
      • Single-serve brewer only households vs. drip brewer only households
    • Consumers & single-cup growth potential
      • Interest in cold K-Cup beverages
      • Demographic analysis
      • Keurig users: rationales for using k-cups/pods more often
      • Demographic analysis
    • Single-cup beverage marketer & brand analysis
      • Single cup moves coffee market forward
      • Leading single-cup coffee marketers
      • Leading single-cup coffee brands
      • Top growing single-cup coffee brands
      • Up-and-coming single-cup coffee marketers
      • Keurig Green Mountain
      • Starbucks
      • J.M. Smucker
      • Kraft Heinz
  • Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
    • Single-cup beverages: retail sales
      • Beyond coffee
      • Tea complements single-cup sales
      • Cold beverages: the black box
      • Single cup moves coffee market forward
        • Table Retail Coffee Sales and Share, by Segment, 2014-2015
      • Single-cup tea hasn’t come to a boil
        • Table Retail Single-Cup Tea Sales, 2015
      • Private-label sales have strong momentum
        • Table Private-Label Retail Coffee Sales and Share of All Private Label Coffee, by Segment, 2014-2015
        • Table Private-Label Retail Coffee Sales and Share Increase, by Segment, 2014-2015
        • Table Branded Retail Single-Cup Coffee Sales and Share, by Segment, 2014-2015
      • Brewer trends
        • Table Office Coffee Service Brewer Placements, by Brewer Type, 2012-2015
        • Table U.S. Single-Cup Brewer Placement Market Share, by Marketer, 2011-2015
  • Opportunities & Challenges
    • The power of single-cup pricing
      • Table Retail Coffee Sales, Units, Volume, and Price per Pound, 2015
      • Migration to single-cup lifts retail coffee sales
        • Table Retail Coffee Sales, by Type: Actual vs. Hypothetical Single-Cup Volume Migration, 2015
    • Private label onslaught
      • Why it matters
      • Private label the new segment power player
      • Keurig wears branded and private label hats, but will it work?
    • Margins and pricing dynamics
      • Why it matters
      • Keurig holds its own in pricing wars; private label suffers
      • Partner losses?
      • Bad timing
        • Table Private-Label Retail Single-Cup Coffee Price per Volume: Green Mountain, All Other Brand Marketers and Private Label, 2014-2015
      • Keurig own brand and partner brand pricing remains firm
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Private-Label Retail Single-Cup Coffee Price per Volume: Own Brands by Brand and Partner Brands by Brand, 2014-2015
      • The holdouts
        • Table Unlicensed Single-Cup Coffee Marketers, by Sales, 2015
    • Widening the target audience
      • Why it matters
      • Market growth potential: HH income hypothetical
        • Table Coffee Usage: Coffee Type by HH Income, 2015
        • Table Household Usage of Coffee Brewer Types, by HH Income, 2015
        • Table HH Single Serve/Pod Brewer Usage, Actual vs. Hypothetical, by HH Income, 2015
      • Racial/ethnic groups underrepresented
        • Table Single Serve/Pod Brewer HH Ownership, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Coffeemaker Household Ownership: Equipment Type, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Coffeemaker Household Purchased Past 12 Months: Equipment Type, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Coffee Usage: Coffee Type, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Ground/Whole Bean Coffee Brands Used Most, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Instant Coffee Brands Used Most, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Espresso/Cappuccino Brands Used Most, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Coffeehouse Brands Used/Used 3+ Times in Past 30 Days, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015
        • Table Single Serve/Pod Brewer HH Ownership Projections, by Race/Ethnicity, 2015-2020
        • Table Single Serve/Pod Brewer HH Ownership Projection, by Race/Ethnicity: Higher Black, Asian and Hispanic Growth Projection, 2015-2020
    • Widening beverage scope
      • Why it matters
      • Gourmet hot beverage expansion
      • Single-serve cold brew beverage expansion
      • Beyond beverages: Pod possibilities
    • Brewer diversity
      • Why it matters
      • Can iCoffee deliver a higher-quality cup?
      • Can Keurig Rivo help expresso—and Lavazza—grow in U.S.?
      • Nespresso Vertuoline
      • Can Lipton do for tea what Keurig has done for coffee?
      • Integrating brewers into the broader household picture
  • Flavor and Variety Trends
    • Coffee and tea on the menu
      • Coffee flavors
        • Table Top Coffee Flavors, Incidence by Restaurant Segment, 2015
      • Hot tea flavors
        • Table Top Hot Tea Flavors, Incidence by Restaurant Segment, 2015
    • Single-cup private-label innovation
    • Single-cup packaging and branding introductions
      • Eco-friendly packaging
      • Sustainable efforts
      • Unique branding partnerships
      • Maximizing flavor
    • Beyond coffee and tea: beverage variety trends
      • Add a little sparkle
      • Infuse flavor
      • Give them a treat
      • The takeaway
  • Single-Cup & Single-Cup Brewer Usage Trends
    • The coffee landscape: an overview
    • The single-cup/pod user in context
      • Table Household and Personal Coffee Use by Coffee Type and Demographic, 2015
    • Single-cup brewer households
      • Automatic drip coffeemaker ownership falls with growth of single-cup systems
      • HH purchasing trends of brewing systems
    • Keurig/pod users: home versus work
      • Demographic analysis
        • Table Keurig/Pod Brewer Use: Any, Home and Work: Gender, Age and HH Income, 2015
        • Table Keurig/Pod Brewer Use: Any, Home and Work: Generation by Gender and HH Income, 2015
    • Methods used to make coffee and tea at home
      • Methods used to make coffee at home
      • Methods used to make tea at home
  • At-Home Battle for Brewer System and Coffee Type Usage
    • Household cross-use of coffee types
      • Table Coffee Usage: Coffee Type by HH Income, 2015
      • Demographic analysis
        • Table Coffee Cross-Use: <$50K HH Income, by Coffee Type, 2015
        • Table Coffee Cross-Use: $50K-$99K HH Income, by Coffee Type, 2015
        • Table Coffee Cross-Use: $100K+ HH Income, by Coffee Type, 2015
        • Table Hispanic/Latino Household and Personal Coffee Cross-Use, by Coffee Type, 2015
    • Single serve only households vs. drip only households
      • Table Households with Automatic Drip Brewing System Only, by Demographic, 2013 vs. 2015
      • Table Households with Single Serve/Pod Brewing System Only, by Demographic, 2013 vs. 2015
  • Consumers & Single-Cup Growth Potential
    • Overview
    • Keurig users: interest in cold beverages
      • Demographic analysis
        • Table Interest in K-Cup/Pod Cold Beverages, by Beverage Type & Demographic, 2015
    • Keurig users: rationales for using k-cups/pods more often
      • Demographic analysis
        • Table Recycling as Rationale for Using K-Cups/Pods More Often, Generation by Gender, 2015
        • Table Recycling as Rationale for Using K-Cups/Pods More Often, Generation by HH Income, 2015
        • Table Better Coffee as Rationale for Using K-Cups/Pods More Often, Generation by Gender, 2015
  • Single-Cup Beverage Marketer & Brand Analysis
    • Segment summary
      • Single cup moves coffee market forward
        • Table Retail Coffee Sales and Share, by Segment, 2014-2015
      • Leading single-cup coffee marketers
        • Table Top 12 Retail Single-Sup Coffee Marketers, by Marketer, 2014-2015
      • Leading single-cup coffee brands
        • Table Top 15 Retail Single-Sup Coffee Brands, by Marketer, 2014-2015
      • Top growing single-cup coffee brands
        • Table Top 15 Retail Single-Sup Coffee Brands, by % Annual Growth, 2014-2015
      • Up-and-coming single-cup coffee marketers
        • Table Top 10 Up-and-Coming Single-Cup Coffee Marketers, 2014-2015
    • Keurig Green Mountain
      • Growth strategy
      • The brewers
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Brewers and Brewer Licensee Timeline, 2012-2015
      • The beverages
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Single-Cup Brands, Own vs. License/Partner, 2009-2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Single-Cup Canadian Brands, 2009-2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Single-Cup Coffee Brands, 2007-2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Single-Cup Non-Coffee Brands, 2007-2015
      • Sales analysis
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Retail Single-Cup Coffee & Tea Sales, 2014-2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Retail Coffee Sales, by Segment, 2014-2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Retail Single-Cup Tea Sales: Owned/Partner Brands, 2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Single-Cup Coffee Sales: Own Brand vs. Partner Brand, 2014-2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Single-Cup Coffee Sales, Own Brands, 2014-2015
        • Table Keurig Green Mountain Single-Cup Coffee Sales, Partner Brands, 2014-2015
      • Occasion expansion
      • Channel expansion
        • Table Keurig Brewer Placements & Attachment Rate, by Location Type, 2013
        • Table Keurig Brewer Penetration, by Region, 2013
      • Sales performance
        • Table Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Net Sales by Geography, 2009-14
        • Table Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Net Sales by Product, 2009-14
        • Table Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Net Sales by Product and Geography, 2014-2015
    • Starbucks
      • Single cup a key growth driver and image enhancer
      • Premium positioning translates to strong whole bean and single-cup presence
        • Table Starbucks Retail Coffee Sales, by Segment, 2014-2015
      • Starbucks versus Seattle’s Best
        • Table Starbucks Single-Cup Coffee Sales, by Brand, 2014-2015
      • The Keurig connection
    • J.M. Smucker
      • Coffee drives the Smucker engine
      • But growth has not been on the menu
      • K-cups key to boosting company revenue
      • Ground coffee share decline; single-cup share increase
        • Table J.M. Smucker Retail Coffee Sales, by Segment, 2014-2015
      • Single cup invigorates Folger’s
      • High hopes for Dunkin’ Donuts
      • The ace in the hole: Cafe Bustelo
        • Table J.M. Smucker Single-Cup Coffee Sales, by Brand, 2014-2015
    • Kraft Heinz
      • Single cup and instant coffee player
        • Table Kraft Heinz Retail Coffee Sales, by Segment, 2014-2015
      • Keurig relationship
      • McCafé off to a strong start
        • Table Kraft Heinz Single-Cup Coffee Sales, by Brand, 2014-2015
  • Appendix
    • Methodology
      • Consumer survey methodology
    • Report table interpretation
      • Color coding
      • Indexing

Abstract

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Single-Cup Brew Beverage Products in the U.S.: Coffee Pods and Beyond, 2nd Edition

Packaged Facts forecasts the market for single-cup coffee to reach $4.37 billion in 2015, up 18.4% from 2014. For 2015, we expect the broader single-cup beverage market, including coffee, tea and other beverages, to generate sales of roughly $4.6 billion. As detailed in Single-Cup Brewed Beverages, we see a market undergoing major transition related to the migration of licensed branded single cup coffee onto the Keurig 2.0 platform, a broader influx of brands into the single-cup space, an increasing gap in pricing between branded and private label portion packs and Keurig’s push into the private label space, and the emergence of new brewers—coffee and otherwise—keen to compete against the Keurig platform.

Consumers will benefit from exploding single-cup coffee variety, ranging from super-premium to value-oriented; a wider array of less expensive portion packs from which to choose, and the ability to purchase single-cup brews priced under $100. We believe tea and cold beverage innovations will add at least incremental sales to single-cup beverages. Down the road, we envision cold beverage platforms broadening the market for single-cups beverages to teenagers and children, providing a plethora of new potential drinking occasions.

Single-Cup Brew Beverage Products in the U.S.: Coffee Pods and Beyond, 2nd Edition analyzes industry and consumer trends shaping the U.S. market for single-cup beverages. In particular, the report:
  • Trends retail single-cup coffee sales estimates through 2018, sizes single-cup tea sales for 2015, provides private label versus branded sales comparisons, trends single-cup system and office brewer placements, and estimates unlicensed K-Cup marketer share.
  • Analyzes leading single-cup coffee marketers and brands, as well as top-growing and up-and-coming single-cup coffee brands. We include detailed analyses for Keurig Green Mountain (including non-coffee), Starbucks, J.M. Smucker and Kraft Foods.
  • Analyzes the cost per pound of single-cup format versus other packaged coffee formats, the impact of private label growth and pricing on the single-cup space, related margin and pricing analysis.
  • Presents custom market growth hypotheticals that frame growth potential related to 1) increases in brewer placements among a wider swath of household income brackets; 2) forecasting usage uptake among underrepresented racial/ethnic groups by population (including brand and product opportunity analysis); and 3) coffee category sales growth related to single-cup usage migration.
  • Presents opportunity analysis related to widening the scope of beverage types offered in single-cup formats; and emerging brewer types.
  • Trends coffee and tea flavors ripe for single-cup introductions; and identifies single-cup private label innovation.
  • Identifies single-cup packaging and branding introductions that target sustainability, brand partnerships, and maximizing flavor; and beverage trends beyond coffee.
To gauge demographic trends and opportunities, the report:
  • Analyzes single-cup coffee and single-cup brewer usage trends within the context of other coffee types and brewing methods; and assesses various methods used to make both coffee and tea at home.
  • Assesses cross-usage of coffee types (instant, RTD, single-cup, ground, whole bean, espresso/cappuccino, and instant flavored mix) among households by income bracket and among Hispanic/Latino households.
  • Trends growth/decline in household exclusive use of drop and single-cup brewers over time, by demographic.
  • Explores consumer interest in cold K-Cup/pod beverages and analyses challenges to market growth related to consumer perceptions about K-cup/pod cost, recycling, and quality.

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