U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020

Published: May 4, 2017 - 172 Pages

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Report scope
    • Report summary
      • U.S. payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • U.S. consumer payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • Consumer payment card market size
      • Key trends and observations
    • Consumer Credit Card Payments
      • Consumer general-purpose credit card payment market size
      • Credit card usage forecast
      • A credit-based payment tool lagging only cash and debit in usage
      • Balances outstanding and number of cards trend downward
      • Subprime borrowers no longer a factor
      • Usage trends
      • Demographic trends
      • Usage trends over time
      • Usage frequency trends over time
      • Number of cards in wallet: trends over time
    • Consumer Debit and Prepaid Card Payments
      • Debit card usage forecast
      • Debit card usage trends
      • Demographic trends
      • Usage trends over time
      • 2010-2016 usage trends by demographic
      • Cash and purchase usage and usage frequency trends
      • Prepaid card usage trends
    • ACH Payments
      • ACH payments market size
      • ACH consumer payment market size
      • Online banking bill payment usage growth trends
      • Consumer bank account number payment usage growth trends
    • Check Payments
      • Check payments market size
      • Consumer check payments
    • Cash Payments
      • U.S. consumer cash payment value & volume: market size & forecast
      • Carrying cash
      • Cash withdrawal amounts
      • In important ways, cash remains king
      • Cash takes a hit but remains resilient
      • Small value payments
      • Cash less likely to be preferred payment instrument
      • Degree of using cash to pay for goods and services
      • Reasons for choosing cash over payment cards
      • Cash preferences: paying for purchases and bills
      • Influence of cash preference on payment cards, by type
      • Influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness
    • Online and Mobile Payments
      • Remote payment growth rate twice the in-person payment rate
      • Online purchasing usage penetration growth slowing down
      • Online and mobile purchase frequency trends
      • Credit cards the online payment method of choice; PayPal firmly established
      • Phone/mail payment usage methods see check declines
      • Bill payment methods used: trends over time
      • Form of payment used to pay bills: trends over time
      • Mobile wallet funding method
      • Mobile wallet payment entry method
    • P2P and money transfer
      • P2P and money transfer usage methods: trends over time
      • Bank-driven P2P and Instant P2P payment: usage and interest
  • Market Size and Forecast
    • U.S. payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • Payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. Payments Value, 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. Payments Value: CAGR and Total Growth Rate, 2012-2015 and 2015-2010
        • Table U.S. Payments Volume, 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. Payments Volume: CAGR and Total Growth Rate, 2012-2015 and 2015-2010
    • U.S. consumer payments value & volume: market size and forecast
      • Consumer payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table Consumer Payments Value, by Payment Instrument, 2012-2016
        • Table Consumer Payments Value, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2020
        • Table Consumer Payments Volume, by Payment Instrument, 2012-2016
        • Table Consumer Payments Volume, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2020
    • Consumer payment card market size
      • Consumer general-purpose card payment value: 2012-2016
      • Consumer payment value by card type
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Card Payment Value: Credit vs. Debit/Prepaid, 2012-2016
      • Consumer payment value by card association
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
    • Key trends and observations
      • eCommerce & Mobile
        • Table U.S. Retail Sales: Total and eCommerce, 2007-2016
        • Table U.S. Retail Sales Forecast: Total and eCommerce, 2016-20
      • Traditional accounts remain bedrock
        • Table Checking and Savings Account Ownership, 2007-2016
      • Traditional and emerging accounts and payment instruments blurring
        • Table Traditional and Emerging Accounts and Payment Instruments: Usage by Type and Demographic, 2016
      • Large-value payments
  • Consumer Credit Card Payments
    • Consumer general-purpose credit card payment market size
      • Table Consumer General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
      • Visa takes share; American Express lags
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
    • Credit card usage forecast
      • Table Active General-Purpose Credit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2007-2016
      • Table Active General-Purpose Credit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2016-2020
    • Credit card trends
      • A credit-based payment tool lagging only cash and debit in usage
        • Table Consumer Credit Card Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
      • Balances outstanding and number of cards trend downward
        • Table Credit Cards: Cards Outstanding, Users, and Balances, 2008 vs. 2016
        • Table American Express Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly American Express Bill Paid, 2007-2016
        • Table Discover Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly Discover Bill Paid, 2007-2016
        • Table MasterCard Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly MasterCard Bill Paid, 2007-2016
        • Table Visa Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly Visa Bill Paid, 2007-2016
      • Subprime borrowers no longer a factor
        • Table Credit Card Usage, by Credit Score, 2007-2015
        • Table Net Credit Limit Extensions and Reductions, by Credit Score, 2007-2015
    • Usage trends
      • Table Credit Card Usage Penetration, 2008-2014
      • Table Credit Card Usage, by Type, 2007-2016
      • Demographic trends
        • Table Credit Card Usage Penetration, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Credit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Credit Card Usage Penetration, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Credit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
      • 2007-2016 trends
        • Table Credit Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
        • Table Credit Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
      • 2010-2016 demographic trends
        • Table General-Purpose Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
    • Usage frequency trends
      • Table Credit Card Monthly Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
      • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Monthly Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
      • Table Department Store Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
      • Demographic trends
        • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency, by Age, 2010 vs. 2016
        • Table General-Purpose Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency, by HH Income, 2010 vs. 2016
    • Number of cards in wallet: trends over time
      • Table Percent of Adults Having General-Purpose Credit Cards and Share by Number of Cards, by Brand, 2007-2016
      • Table MasterCard and Visa Credit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
      • Table American Express and Discover Credit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
  • Consumer Debit and Prepaid Card Payments
    • Consumer general-purpose debit & prepaid card payment market size
      • Table Consumer General-Purpose Debit & Prepaid Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
      • Visa dominates
        • Table Consumer General-Purpose Debit & Prepaid Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
    • Debit card usage forecast
      • Table Active General-Purpose Debit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2007-2016
      • Table Active General-Purpose Debit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2016-2020
    • Debit card trends
      • A core payment tool for bills and non-bills
        • Table Consumer Debit Card Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
    • Usage trends
      • Table Debit Card Usage Penetration, 2008-2014
      • Table Debit Card Usage, by Type, 2007-2016
      • Demographic trends
        • Table Debit Card Usage Penetration, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Debit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Debit Card Usage Penetration, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
        • Table Debit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
      • 2007-2016 trends
        • Table Debit Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
        • Table Debit Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
      • 2010-2016 demographic trends
        • Table Used Debit Card in Past 30 Days: ATM-Only and General-Purpose Debit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
      • Cash and purchase usage and usage frequency trends
        • Table MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Total Transactions, 2010-2016
        • Table MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Purchase Transactions, 2010-2016
        • Table MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Cash Transactions, 2010-2016
        • Table ATM-Only Debit Card Usage & Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days, 2010-2016
    • Prepaid card usage trends
      • 2010-2016 trends
        • Table Prepaid Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2010-2016
        • Table Prepaid Card Usage, by Brand, 2010-2016
      • 2010-2016 demographic trends
        • Table Prepaid Card Use by Brand and Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
        • Table Prepaid Card Use by Brand and Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
  • ACH Payments
    • ACH payments market size
      • Payments value: 2012-2020
        • Table U.S. ACH Payments Value and Volume, 2012-2020
      • Credit vs. debit transfers
      • Network operator vs. on-us transactions
        • Table ACH Payment Value and Volume: Network, On-Us, Credit and Debit, 2012 vs. 2015
    • ACH consumer payment market size
      • Network ACH payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table ACH Payments: Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Consumer ACH payments value and volume: 2012-2020
        • Table ACH Consumer Payments: Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Market size: Consumer ACH direct deposit payments
        • Table ACH Direct Deposit, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Market size: Consumer ACH online banking bill payments
        • Table ACH Online Banking Bill Payment, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
      • Market size: Consumer ACH payments initiated online vs. telephone
        • Table ACH Telephone and Web Payment, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
    • Online banking bill payment usage growth trends
      • Table Consumer Online Banking Bill Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
    • Consumer bank account number payment usage growth trends
      • Table Consumer Bank Account Number Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
  • Check Payments
    • Check payments market size
      • Table Check Value and Volume: Checks Written, Converted to ACH and Payments, 2012 vs. 2015
      • Consumer check payments: Still broadly used but with low-and lesser-frequency
        • Table Consumer Check Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
    • check payments
      • Federal Reserve data sets the stage
      • Trended consumer survey analysis suggests steady, consistent decline
        • Table Percent of Bill Payers Who Use Checks: Always, Sometimes and Never, 2010-2016
      • Demographic analysis
        • Table Bill Payers Who Always Use Checks: Indexed Usage, by Demographic, 2016
  • Cash Payments
    • U.S. consumer cash payment value & volume: market size & forecast
      • Table U.S. Consumer Cash Payments Value and Volume, 2012-2020
    • Carrying and withdrawing cash
      • Cash in circulation: big bill boom
        • Table Currency in Circulation: Value and Value Share, by Denomination, 2007-2016
      • Carrying cash
      • Cash withdrawal amounts higher than credit card and debit card payment value
        • Table Number and Value of ATM Withdrawals at Depository Institutions, by Withdrawal Type, 2003-2015
    • In important ways, cash remains king
      • Table Consumer Cash Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
      • Cash takes a hit but remains resilient
      • Breadth of merchant use
      • Small value payments
    • The cash user
      • Cash less likely to be preferred payment instrument
      • Who loves cash?
      • Degree of using cash to pay for goods and services
        • Table Degree of Using Cash to Pay for Goods and Services, 2016
        • Table Degree of Using Cash to Pay for Goods and Services, by Demographic, 2016
      • Reasons for choosing cash over payment cards
        • Table Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, 2016
        • Table Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, by Demographic, 2016
        • Table Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, by Frequency of Cash Use, 2016
      • Cash preferences: paying for purchases and bills
        • Table Degree of Preference for Paying with Cash, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
        • Table Degree of Preference for Using Cash to Pay Bills, by Demographic, 2016
      • Influence of cash preference on payment cards, by type
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Credit Card Usage, 2016
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Debit Card Purchase and Cash Usage, 2016
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Prepaid Card Usage, 2016
      • Influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Banking Relationship and Types of Loans Used, 2016
        • Table Relationship of Cash Preferences to Credit Score, 2016
  • Online and Mobile Payments
    • Remote payment growth rate twice the in-person payment rate
      • Table General-Purpose Card Payments Volume and Value: In-Person vs. Remote, 2012-2015
    • Payment method usage trends
      • Online purchasing usage penetration growth slowing down
        • Table Payment Methods: Online vs. Phone or Mail, 2014-2016
      • Online and mobile purchase frequency trends
        • Table Purchases Made Last 30 Days: Online Purchase Frequency and Mobile Purchases, 2010-2016
      • Credit cards the online payment method of choice; PayPal firmly established
        • Table Online Payment Methods Used, by Type, 2014-2016
      • Phone/mail payment usage methods see check declines
        • Table Phone/Mail Payment Methods Used, by Type, 2014-2016
    • Bill payment trends
      • Bill payment methods used: trends over time
        • Table Bill Payment Methods Used, 2010-2016
      • Form of payment used to pay bills: trends over time
        • Table Bill Payments: Form of Payment Always Used, 2010-2016
        • Table Bill Payments: Form of Payment Sometimes Used, 2010-2016
        • Table Bill Payments: Form of Payment Never Used, 2010-2016
    • Mobile wallets
      • Mobile wallet funding method
      • PayPal: funding method disruptor
      • Mobile wallets also potential funding method disruptors
        • Table Mobile Wallet Funding Method and Preferred Funding Method, 2016
      • Mobile wallet payment entry method
        • Table Mobile Phone Purchasing: Payment Entry Method and Preferred Method, 2016
  • P2P and money transfer
    • P2P and money transfer usage methods: trends over time
      • Table Sending/Receiving Money: Methods Used, 2010-2016
      • Bank-driven P2P usage and interest
        • Table Bank Account with P2P Functionality: Usage and Interest, by Demographic, 2016
      • Instant P2P payment usage and interest
        • Table Instant Electronic P2P Usage and Interest, by Demographic, 2016
  • Appendix
    • Consumer survey methodology
    • Market size and forecast methodology
      • Consumer payments market size and forecast
    • Population estimates
    • Table indexes
    • Key sources
    • Terms and definitions
      • Table Report Abbreviations
      • Table Market-Based PCE, 2007-2016
    • Tables
      • Table Consumer Payment Instruments: Monthly Usage Penetration, 2010-2014
      • Table Consumer Payments Made in Typical Month, by Payment Instrument, 2010-2014

Abstract

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U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020


Consumer payment preferences are changing faster than ever before, migrating further toward electronic and card-based payments and away from paper-based payments such as cash and check. Hastening this migration, e-commerce and m-commerce are transforming the consumer payments industry, tilting the balance further in favor of bill- and non-bill electronic and card-based payments; while P2P payments take digital shape. Cash and check are on the chopping block: Dropping from an 8.7% share in 2016, Packaged Facts expects cash to comprise 6.9% of consumer payment value in 2020, with declines also noted for check payments, with card-based and electronic payment picking up the slack.

These shifts in consumer payment preferences are shaping the value and volume of payments made, affecting market share for cash, debit cards, prepaid cards, credit cards, electronic payments such as online banking bill payment and bank account payment, and of course cash and check. This, in turn, has ramifications for consumer payments industry participants drawing revenue or paying fees from the consumer payments food chain.

Addressing this shift, Packaged Facts’ U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020 provides both trended consumer usage, behavior and attitude analysis on consumer payments and market sizes and forecasts through 2020 for key consumer payments instruments and methods.

Packaged Facts' report, U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020, emphasizes 2007-2016 survey trending of consumer payment usage and behavior, segmented by payment instrument and method: credit card, debit card, prepaid card, cash, check, online and mobile payments, and P2P and money transfers, with demographic analysis.

Consumer Payment Market Trends include:

  • Consumer credit card usage, monthly usage, engagement rate, monthly usage frequency, number of cards in wallet, card balances, and credit profile, with demographic analysis and usage by card association.
  • Consumer debit card usage, monthly usage, engagement rate, and monthly usage frequency (cash withdrawal and purchases), with demographic analysis and usage by card association.
  • Prepaid usage trends, reloadable vs. non-reloadable and by card association
  • Cash usage analysis, including amounts carried, cash withdrawal amounts, cash preference by merchant vertical, small value payments, likelihood of cash being used as preferred payment instrument; degree of using cash to pay for goods and services; reasons for choosing cash over payment cards; cash preferences regarding purchases and bill payment, influence of cash preference on payment cards (by type of card), and influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness.
  • Online and mobile payment preferences, including remote payments vs. in-person payments, online purchasing usage penetration, online and mobile purchase frequency trends, online payment method of choice, phone/mail payment usage methods, emerging and tradition payment methods used to pay bills, forms of payment used to pay bills, mobile wallet funding method, and mobile wallet payment entry method.
  • P2P and money transfer usage methods, including usage of and interest in bank-driven P2P and instant P2P payment.
  • Monthly payment volume and payment volume share, by payment instrument, including cash, check, debit card, credit card and online banking bill payment.
  • Market sizing and forecasting includes:
  • 2012-2020 market size and forecast for U.S. noncash payment value and volume, segmented by debit cards, prepaid cards, credit cards, ACH payments, and checks.
  • 2012-2020 market size and forecast for U.S. consumer payment value and volume, segmented by cash, debit card, credit card, check, electronic payments, and other payment types.
  • 2012-2016 market size for general-purpose consumer payment card value, segmented by debit/prepaid card and credit card and by card association.
  • 2012-2020 credit card and debit card usage forecasts
  • 2012-2020 retail sales and ecommerce sales market size and forecast
  • 2012 vs. 2015 market size for remote vs. in-person general-purpose payment card value
  • 2012-2016 market size for consumer ACH payment value and volume, segmented by direct deposit payment, online banking bill payment; payments initiated by telephone and payments initiated online.

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