Foodservice Lunch Trends in the U.S.

Oct 1, 2010
145 Pages - Pub ID: LA2756365
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To help foodservice industry participants face challenges unique to the lunch daypart, Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides insight on the lunch goer’s decision-making process. By putting a finger to the lunch goer’s pulse, we provide insight on two keys factors to lunch-time foodservice: how and why the consumer decided on a specific restaurant from which to obtain lunch, and how and why that consumer decides what to order from the menu.

Introductory findings include the following: When deciding on a restaurant from which to obtain lunch, 37% of lunch goers cite a favorite menu item as influencing their choice, and some 36% cite a different menu item than what they have at home. But low cost has become the industry mantra—and is also important to many consumers. About 35% cite a meal priced under $5 as an influence when selecting a restaurant, and 31% say that a meal priced under $10 has influenced them to select a restaurant for lunch.

With proprietary consumer research laying the foundation, this report weaves consultative insight with analysis of lunchtime limited-time offer and value trends; current lunchtime guest check averages; planned restaurant spending; and guest traffic patterns at selected brands. We also shine a light on leading lunch-centric brands, by outlining menu strategies and related innovations, and then tying them to demographic analysis of the brand users’ diet, health, and food attitudes; and usage patterns. The report also trends lunch daypart sales by demographics such as income, age, region, and race/ethnicity. Analysis also focuses on consumers particularly important to the lunch daypart, such as the full-time and part-time employed.

While the restaurant industry is the primary focus of the report, consumer survey assessment incorporates prepared foods at grocery stores and convenience stores, and trend analysis incorporates both restaurants and food retail.

Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Scope and Methodology
Scope
Methodology
Macroeconomic Analysis
Fast Facts
Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker
Fast Facts
Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis
Fast Facts
Lunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies
Fast Facts
Lunch Restaurant Selection Analysis
Fast Facts
Lunch Menu Selection Analysis
Fast facts
Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown
Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Trendsetters
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Panera Bread
Freshii


Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis
Restaurant sales rally fizzles; long slog ahead
Restaurant industry sales dip in June; future weakness likely
Spending upturn hinges on consumers with strong balance sheets
Upturn to benefit casual restaurants at expense of family and fast food/QSR players
Non-discretionary spending a recession rule
But affluent may help drive growth in discretionary spend
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Gloomy Near-Term Outlook
In-home breakfast and dinner trend remains significant
Bagging lunch takes a bite out of restaurant sales?
Graph 2-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
Looking ahead: Saving & grocery spending trumps limited service and full-service restaurant spend
Graph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View
February to June food services & drinking places monthly sales sequentially improve
Full-service restaurants get needed shot in the arm; shift momentum away from grocery
Graph 2-3: Monthly Sales, 12-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010
But month-to-month spending trends suggest restaurant and food retail pullback
Graph 2-4: Monthly Sales, Month-to-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010
Restaurant Performance Index contracts for second straight month
Graph 2-5: Restaurant Performance Index, Monthly Metrics, 2006-2010
Macroeconomic factors shaping restaurant sales
Consumer confidence? No, not really
Present Situation Index decreases as perceptions of job prospects continue to darken
Expectations Index weighed down by dimmer outlook on job prospects
Unemploymentrate stagnates
Some perspective:
Graph 2-6: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010
By demographic, unemployment rates settle into troughs
Disparity in unemployment rates by education level
Young adults, minorities and men also find harder going
Graph 2-7: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010
Graph 2-8: Unemployment Rate, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007-2010
How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad?
Households continue to repair their balance sheets
Graph 2-9: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010
Graph 2-10: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010
Unemployment and GPD forecast: expect recovery to take several years
Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slowrebound in consumer spending
Graph 2-11: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-12
Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels a long way off
Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 high
Graph 2-12: Household Net Worth, 2005-10
Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism
Q2 2010 summary equities analysis
Graph 2-13: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index: 2007-2010
Food at home maintains pricing edge
Graph 2-14: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
Graph 2-15: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
Food inflation forecast remains muted
CPI forecast for food at home and food away from home
Commodities pricing analysis
Intermediate foods and feeds index dips during Q1 2010
Prepared animal feed prices lead decline
Dairy product index falls after Q4 2009 hike
Finished consumer foods rise
Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rise tapers from Q4 2009 pop


Chapter 3: Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker
Note on reading charts
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: at-home food spend trumps out-of-home spend
February 2010 trend continues in June 2010
Taking a bite from lunch
Graph 3-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
Looking ahead: Consumers more likely to save & spend on groceries than spend at restaurants
Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View
Planned spending on fast food appears grim
Graph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Fast Food Restaurant Spending
Intended full-service spend lacks promise
Graph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service Restaurant Spending
Intention to save money remains high
Graph 3-5: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Saving Money
Lunch restaurant goers intend to spend more at restaurants
Intended spend more likely among smoothie shop, fine dining and coffeehouse lunch goers
Graph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service and Limited-Service Spending, Restaurant Lunch Users
Restaurant usage and usage frequency
Overview
February 2010 to June 2010 mean use comparison
Graph 3-7: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
Graph 3-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
18-34s continue to drive guest counts
Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
18-34s exhibit higher usage
Key smoothie shop and street stand users
Graph 3-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
HH income: fast food enjoys egalitarian status
Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,
by HH Income
Graph 3-12: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income
Employment status: having a job pays the bills but also fits restaurant lifestyle
Graph 3-13: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,
by Employment Status
Full-time workers and students also compare favorably regarding overall usage
Graph 3-14: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Employment Status
Restaurant lunch use
Lunch day part accounts for about one-third of all usage
Graph 3-15: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, 2010
Fast food dominates lunch
Graph 3-16: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010
Gender: men + grab-and-go
Graph 3-17: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Gender
Age: mobile lifestyles speak volumes
Graph 3-18: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Age
HH income: it’s all about disposable income
Graph 3-19: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by HH Income
Employment status a driving factor
Students at the grocery store?
Graph 3-20: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Employment Status
Appendix: Consumer Survey


Chapter 4: Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis
Market size and overview
Declining sales amidst a very touch climate
Near-term challenges
Lunch daypart sales peak in 2008, dip in 2009 and 2010
Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, 2005-2011
Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, % growth, 2005-2011
Terminology and sourcing note
Lunch comprises 12% of HH food spend
Graph 4-2: Food at Home versus Food Away from Home Daypart Spend
Fast food has 50% share of lunch daypart sales
Graph 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias
Consumer food expenditure trends suggest migration to food at home spend
Table 4-1: Consumer Food Expenditures, 2005-08
Lunch share of restaurant spend consistent during 2005-08
Table 4-2: Meals Away From Home Expenditures, by Daypart, 2005-08
Lunch takes only a 1.2% bite out of pre-tax income
Table 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines Cafeteria Spend, 2005-08
Graph 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias, 2005-08
Lunch expenditures highest in south
Northeast consumer units spend least on percentage basis
Table 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Region
On a per dollar basis, youth drives lunch spend
56% of 65+ lunch dollars go to full-service establishments
Table 4-5: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Age
Higher income = higher absolute lunch spend, but lower percentage of income
Table 4-6: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Income
Lunch share of wallet highest among Hispanics
Table 4-7: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Race/Ethnicity
Guest Traffic Analysis
Frequency counts: definition
1 in 20 McDonald’s monthly users goes 14 or more times per month!
Guest traffic rises most at Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill
Table 4-8: Guest Traffic: Limited-Service Restaurants, Selected Lunch Players, 2008-10
Daypart meal spend analysis
Breakfast meal spend approaches that for lunch at fast food and family restaurants
Graph 4-5: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend, by Daypart and Restaurant Type, 2010
Lunch meal spend by restaurant type reveals significant differences
Graph 4-6: Lunch Meal Spend, Fast Food Versus Family Restaurants, Selected Demographics
Fast food daypart spending reveals differences among married and older users
Table 4-9: Meal Spend by Daypart, Fast Food Restaurants, Selected Demographics


Chapter 5: Lunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies
Discounting and bundling
Extreme affordability weighs down fast food/QSR
Everyday value strategies add wrinkle to family dining segment
Full-service value menus
Lunchtime LTO meal bundling trends
Fast food/QSR
Fast casual
Family & casual dining restaurants
Health on menu
Choosing more healthful options away from home on the rise
What does “healthy” mean to consumers?
Table 5-1: Restaurant Health Attitudes, 2010
Table 5-2: Consumers’ Associations with “Healthy,” 2010
Challenging perceptions that healthy food is more expensive


Chapter 6: Lunch Restaurant Selection Analysis
Note on reading charts
Lunch restaurant selection influencers
Overview
Graph 6-1: Lunch Restaurant Selection Influencers, 2010
Lunch restaurant selection: convenience influencers
Gender shapes routine
Graph 6-2: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Gender, 2010
Age-driven lifestyle needs influence lunch restaurant selection
Graph 6-3: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Age, 2010
HH income shapes importance of work proximity
Graph 6-4: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
Employment status: work implies less mobility, more routine
Graph 6-5: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Urban, suburban, or rural location affect proximity and routine
Graph 6-6: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, Urban, Suburban, Rural, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch menu item influencers
Portion control for cost and for calories entices women
Graph 6-7: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Gender, 2010
Portion control for cost savings a cue for 18-24s
Graph 6-8: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Age, 2010
Healthy menu items an egalitarian influence
Graph 6-9: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
Students swayed by a plethora of menu items; retires another matter
Graph 6-10: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch cost threshold influencers
Meal deal? At lower price points, women lunch goers just a tad more interested
Graph 6-11: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Gender, 2010
Younger people: meal deal, please!
Graph 6-12: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Age, 2010
HH income: don’t underestimate interest in meal deals across the board
Graph 6-13: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
Employment status: students seeking deals
Graph 6-14: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch dine-in partner influencers
Age: friends, family, or alone?
Graph 6-15: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Dine-in Partner Influencers, by Age, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch takeout partner influencers
Save me some money on tip and drinks?
Graph 6-16: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Takeout Partner Influencers, by Income, 2010


Chapter 7: Lunch Menu Selection Analysis
Note on reading charts
Lunch menu selection influencers
Overview
Graph 7-1: Menu Selection Influencers, Lunch Daypart, 2010
Health and bundles skew the age spectrum
Graph 7-2: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Age, 2010
HH income: seasonal and healthful items versus bundled items
Graph 7-3: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
Employment status: students love a good bundle
Graph 7-4: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Urban, suburban, or rural location: here’s to urban health
Graph 7-5: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Rural/Urban/Suburban, 2010


Chapter 8: Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown
Meet the Psychographic Groups
Some men really do like to eat healthy: how can operators connect with them?
Budgeters drawn by cost, naturally, but by other factors, too
Portion size provides double-sided menu connection with male Healthy Eaters
Meal pricing thresholds provide opportunity to connect with male Healthy Eaters
Table 8-1: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Psychographic Groups, by Gender
Income splits reveal some lunch surprises
Difference and customization more of a factor among <$50K Healthy Eaters
Promotions and bundles incent wider swath of lower-HH income Budgeters
Table 8-2: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by HH Income
Youth drives interest among both Budgeters and Healthy Eaters
Table 8-3: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by Age


Chapter 9: Restaurant Lunch Dining Partner Analysis
Fast food lunch usage leads all dayparts
Table 9-1: Fast Food Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch usage lags dinner daypart
Table 9-2: Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
Fast food lunch dining partners differ according to demographic
Table 9-3: Lunch Fast Food Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010
Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch: more of an adult thing
Table 9-4: Lunch Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010


Chapter 10: Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Analysis
Note on food lifestyle segmentation charts and demographics
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Competitive positioning: Customization; Food with Integrity
Marketing that backs Food with Integrity
2010 strategy
On the menu
Restaurant expansion plans: digging deeper where presence is already established
Loyalty program to target “evangelical, super-passionate regular customers”
Chipotle Mexican Grill: selected demographics
A 10 million-strong consumer universe
Strong income and gender skew
Table 10-1: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Selected Demographics
Food Lifestyle Segmentation: Variety on a Budget& True Foodies
Graph 10-1: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Chipotle Mexican Grill users: gourmets, meet practicality
Table 10-2: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
Chipotle by the numbers
Table 10-3: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Selected Metrics, 2007-09
Q2 2010 sales driven by increased visits
Outlook
Table 10-4: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Quarterly Sales Metrics, 2009-10
Panera Bread
2009-2010 lunch strategy has positive momentum
Trading up
“You Pick”!
Owning the menu category
Next up: Paninis
Catering: going after the big fish
Loyalty programcoming to a Panera near you
A toe in the licensing water
Panera Bread: selected demographics
A 16.4 million universe
Strong income and gender skew
Table 10-5: Panera Bread Users: Selected Demographics
Panera Bread Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Variety on a Budgetand True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequency
Graph 10-2: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Panera Bread users: food, health and diet attitudes
A more health-conscious bunch with a touch of food guilt
Table 10-6: Panera Bread Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
Sales trending upward
Table 10-7: Panera Bread, Selected Metrics, 2007-09
Q2 2010 same-store sales jump almost 10%
Shift in menu mix suggests movement toward higher-priced items
Table 10-8: Panera Bread, Quarterly Sales Metrics, Q2 2009 & Q2 2010
Freshii—the new name in healthful fare
The Freshii store and menu
Fast and convenient
Health placed front and center
Calories and other health information updated in real time
A Freshii view of customization
Technology savvy
Green initiatives


Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts

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