Foodservice Lunch Trends in the U.S.
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To help foodservice industry participants face challenges unique to the lunch daypart, Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides insight on the lunch goer’s decision-making process. By putting a finger to the lunch goer’s pulse, we provide insight on two keys factors to lunch-time foodservice: how and why the consumer decided on a specific restaurant from which to obtain lunch, and how and why that consumer decides what to order from the menu.
To help foodservice industry participants face challenges unique to the lunch daypart, Lunch Trends in the U.S. Foodservice Market provides insight on the lunch goer’s decision-making process. By putting a finger to the lunch goer’s pulse, we provide insight on two keys factors to lunch-time foodservice: how and why the consumer decided on a specific restaurant from which to obtain lunch, and how and why that consumer decides what to order from the menu.
Introductory findings include the following: When deciding on a restaurant from which to obtain lunch, 37% of lunch goers cite a favorite menu item as influencing their choice, and some 36% cite a different menu item than what they have at home. But low cost has become the industry mantra—and is also important to many consumers. About 35% cite a meal priced under $5 as an influence when selecting a restaurant, and 31% say that a meal priced under $10 has influenced them to select a restaurant for lunch.
With proprietary consumer research laying the foundation, this report weaves consultative insight with analysis of lunchtime limited-time offer and value trends; current lunchtime guest check averages; planned restaurant spending; and guest traffic patterns at selected brands. We also shine a light on leading lunch-centric brands, by outlining menu strategies and related innovations, and then tying them to demographic analysis of the brand users’ diet, health, and food attitudes; and usage patterns. The report also trends lunch daypart sales by demographics such as income, age, region, and race/ethnicity. Analysis also focuses on consumers particularly important to the lunch daypart, such as the full-time and part-time employed.
While the restaurant industry is the primary focus of the report, consumer survey assessment incorporates prepared foods at grocery stores and convenience stores, and trend analysis incorporates both restaurants and food retail.
- Chapter 1: Executive Summary
- Scope and Methodology
- Scope
- Methodology
- Macroeconomic Analysis
- Fast Facts
- Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker
- Fast Facts
- Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis
- Fast Facts
- Lunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies
- Fast Facts
- Lunch Restaurant Selection Analysis
- Fast Facts
- Lunch Menu Selection Analysis
- Fast facts
- Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown
- Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Trendsetters
- Chipotle Mexican Grill
- Panera Bread
- Freshii
- Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis
- Restaurant sales rally fizzles; long slog ahead
- Restaurant industry sales dip in June; future weakness likely
- Spending upturn hinges on consumers with strong balance sheets
- Upturn to benefit casual restaurants at expense of family and fast food/QSR players
- Non-discretionary spending a recession rule
- But affluent may help drive growth in discretionary spend
- Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Gloomy Near-Term Outlook
- In-home breakfast and dinner trend remains significant
- Bagging lunch takes a bite out of restaurant sales?
- Graph 2-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
- Looking ahead: Saving & grocery spending trumps limited service and full-service restaurant spend
- Graph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View
- February to June food services & drinking places monthly sales sequentially improve
- Full-service restaurants get needed shot in the arm; shift momentum away from grocery
- Graph 2-3: Monthly Sales, 12-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010
- But month-to-month spending trends suggest restaurant and food retail pullback
- Graph 2-4: Monthly Sales, Month-to-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010
- Restaurant Performance Index contracts for second straight month
- Graph 2-5: Restaurant Performance Index, Monthly Metrics, 2006-2010
- Macroeconomic factors shaping restaurant sales
- Consumer confidence? No, not really
- Present Situation Index decreases as perceptions of job prospects continue to darken
- Expectations Index weighed down by dimmer outlook on job prospects
- Unemploymentrate stagnates
- Some perspective:
- Graph 2-6: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010
- By demographic, unemployment rates settle into troughs
- Disparity in unemployment rates by education level
- Young adults, minorities and men also find harder going
- Graph 2-7: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010
- Graph 2-8: Unemployment Rate, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007-2010
- How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad?
- Households continue to repair their balance sheets
- Graph 2-9: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010
- Graph 2-10: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010
- Unemployment and GPD forecast: expect recovery to take several years
- Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slowrebound in consumer spending
- Graph 2-11: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-12
- Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels a long way off
- Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 high
- Graph 2-12: Household Net Worth, 2005-10
- Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism
- Q2 2010 summary equities analysis
- Graph 2-13: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index: 2007-2010
- Food at home maintains pricing edge
- Graph 2-14: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
- Graph 2-15: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
- Food inflation forecast remains muted
- CPI forecast for food at home and food away from home
- Commodities pricing analysis
- Intermediate foods and feeds index dips during Q1 2010
- Prepared animal feed prices lead decline
- Dairy product index falls after Q4 2009 hike
- Finished consumer foods rise
- Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rise tapers from Q4 2009 pop
- Chapter 3: Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker
- Note on reading charts
- Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: at-home food spend trumps out-of-home spend
- February 2010 trend continues in June 2010
- Taking a bite from lunch
- Graph 3-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View
- Looking ahead: Consumers more likely to save & spend on groceries than spend at restaurants
- Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View
- Planned spending on fast food appears grim
- Graph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Fast Food Restaurant Spending
- Intended full-service spend lacks promise
- Graph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service Restaurant Spending
- Intention to save money remains high
- Graph 3-5: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Saving Money
- Lunch restaurant goers intend to spend more at restaurants
- Intended spend more likely among smoothie shop, fine dining and coffeehouse lunch goers
- Graph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service and Limited-Service Spending, Restaurant Lunch Users
- Restaurant usage and usage frequency
- Overview
- February 2010 to June 2010 mean use comparison
- Graph 3-7: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
- Graph 3-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
- 18-34s continue to drive guest counts
- Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
- 18-34s exhibit higher usage
- Key smoothie shop and street stand users
- Graph 3-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
- HH income: fast food enjoys egalitarian status
- Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,
- by HH Income
- Graph 3-12: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income
- Employment status: having a job pays the bills but also fits restaurant lifestyle
- Graph 3-13: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,
- by Employment Status
- Full-time workers and students also compare favorably regarding overall usage
- Graph 3-14: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Employment Status
- Restaurant lunch use
- Lunch day part accounts for about one-third of all usage
- Graph 3-15: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, 2010
- Fast food dominates lunch
- Graph 3-16: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010
- Gender: men + grab-and-go
- Graph 3-17: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Gender
- Age: mobile lifestyles speak volumes
- Graph 3-18: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Age
- HH income: it’s all about disposable income
- Graph 3-19: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by HH Income
- Employment status a driving factor
- Students at the grocery store?
- Graph 3-20: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Employment Status
- Appendix: Consumer Survey
- Chapter 4: Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis
- Market size and overview
- Declining sales amidst a very touch climate
- Near-term challenges
- Lunch daypart sales peak in 2008, dip in 2009 and 2010
- Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, 2005-2011
- Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, % growth, 2005-2011
- Terminology and sourcing note
- Lunch comprises 12% of HH food spend
- Graph 4-2: Food at Home versus Food Away from Home Daypart Spend
- Fast food has 50% share of lunch daypart sales
- Graph 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias
- Consumer food expenditure trends suggest migration to food at home spend
- Table 4-1: Consumer Food Expenditures, 2005-08
- Lunch share of restaurant spend consistent during 2005-08
- Table 4-2: Meals Away From Home Expenditures, by Daypart, 2005-08
- Lunch takes only a 1.2% bite out of pre-tax income
- Table 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines Cafeteria Spend, 2005-08
- Graph 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias, 2005-08
- Lunch expenditures highest in south
- Northeast consumer units spend least on percentage basis
- Table 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Region
- On a per dollar basis, youth drives lunch spend
- 56% of 65+ lunch dollars go to full-service establishments
- Table 4-5: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Age
- Higher income = higher absolute lunch spend, but lower percentage of income
- Table 4-6: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Income
- Lunch share of wallet highest among Hispanics
- Table 4-7: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Race/Ethnicity
- Guest Traffic Analysis
- Frequency counts: definition
- 1 in 20 McDonald’s monthly users goes 14 or more times per month!
- Guest traffic rises most at Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill
- Table 4-8: Guest Traffic: Limited-Service Restaurants, Selected Lunch Players, 2008-10
- Daypart meal spend analysis
- Breakfast meal spend approaches that for lunch at fast food and family restaurants
- Graph 4-5: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend, by Daypart and Restaurant Type, 2010
- Lunch meal spend by restaurant type reveals significant differences
- Graph 4-6: Lunch Meal Spend, Fast Food Versus Family Restaurants, Selected Demographics
- Fast food daypart spending reveals differences among married and older users
- Table 4-9: Meal Spend by Daypart, Fast Food Restaurants, Selected Demographics
- Chapter 5: Lunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies
- Discounting and bundling
- Extreme affordability weighs down fast food/QSR
- Everyday value strategies add wrinkle to family dining segment
- Full-service value menus
- Lunchtime LTO meal bundling trends
- Fast food/QSR
- Fast casual
- Family & casual dining restaurants
- Health on menu
- Choosing more healthful options away from home on the rise
- What does “healthy” mean to consumers?
- Table 5-1: Restaurant Health Attitudes, 2010
- Table 5-2: Consumers’ Associations with “Healthy,” 2010
- Challenging perceptions that healthy food is more expensive
- Chapter 6: Lunch Restaurant Selection Analysis
- Note on reading charts
- Lunch restaurant selection influencers
- Overview
- Graph 6-1: Lunch Restaurant Selection Influencers, 2010
- Lunch restaurant selection: convenience influencers
- Gender shapes routine
- Graph 6-2: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Gender, 2010
- Age-driven lifestyle needs influence lunch restaurant selection
- Graph 6-3: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Age, 2010
- HH income shapes importance of work proximity
- Graph 6-4: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
- Employment status: work implies less mobility, more routine
- Graph 6-5: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
- Urban, suburban, or rural location affect proximity and routine
- Graph 6-6: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, Urban, Suburban, Rural, 2010
- Restaurant selection: lunch menu item influencers
- Portion control for cost and for calories entices women
- Graph 6-7: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Gender, 2010
- Portion control for cost savings a cue for 18-24s
- Graph 6-8: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Age, 2010
- Healthy menu items an egalitarian influence
- Graph 6-9: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
- Students swayed by a plethora of menu items; retires another matter
- Graph 6-10: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
- Restaurant selection: lunch cost threshold influencers
- Meal deal? At lower price points, women lunch goers just a tad more interested
- Graph 6-11: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Gender, 2010
- Younger people: meal deal, please!
- Graph 6-12: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Age, 2010
- HH income: don’t underestimate interest in meal deals across the board
- Graph 6-13: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
- Employment status: students seeking deals
- Graph 6-14: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
- Restaurant selection: lunch dine-in partner influencers
- Age: friends, family, or alone?
- Graph 6-15: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Dine-in Partner Influencers, by Age, 2010
- Restaurant selection: lunch takeout partner influencers
- Save me some money on tip and drinks?
- Graph 6-16: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Takeout Partner Influencers, by Income, 2010
- Chapter 7: Lunch Menu Selection Analysis
- Note on reading charts
- Lunch menu selection influencers
- Overview
- Graph 7-1: Menu Selection Influencers, Lunch Daypart, 2010
- Health and bundles skew the age spectrum
- Graph 7-2: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Age, 2010
- HH income: seasonal and healthful items versus bundled items
- Graph 7-3: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
- Employment status: students love a good bundle
- Graph 7-4: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
- Urban, suburban, or rural location: here’s to urban health
- Graph 7-5: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Rural/Urban/Suburban, 2010
- Chapter 8: Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown
- Meet the Psychographic Groups
- Some men really do like to eat healthy: how can operators connect with them?
- Budgeters drawn by cost, naturally, but by other factors, too
- Portion size provides double-sided menu connection with male Healthy Eaters
- Meal pricing thresholds provide opportunity to connect with male Healthy Eaters
- Table 8-1: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Psychographic Groups, by Gender
- Income splits reveal some lunch surprises
- Difference and customization more of a factor among <$50K Healthy Eaters
- Promotions and bundles incent wider swath of lower-HH income Budgeters
- Table 8-2: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by HH Income
- Youth drives interest among both Budgeters and Healthy Eaters
- Table 8-3: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by Age
- Chapter 9: Restaurant Lunch Dining Partner Analysis
- Fast food lunch usage leads all dayparts
- Table 9-1: Fast Food Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
- Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch usage lags dinner daypart
- Table 9-2: Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
- Fast food lunch dining partners differ according to demographic
- Table 9-3: Lunch Fast Food Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010
- Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch: more of an adult thing
- Table 9-4: Lunch Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010
- Chapter 10: Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Analysis
- Note on food lifestyle segmentation charts and demographics
- Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
- Competitive positioning: Customization; Food with Integrity
- Marketing that backs Food with Integrity
- 2010 strategy
- On the menu
- Restaurant expansion plans: digging deeper where presence is already established
- Loyalty program to target “evangelical, super-passionate regular customers”
- Chipotle Mexican Grill: selected demographics
- A 10 million-strong consumer universe
- Strong income and gender skew
- Table 10-1: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Selected Demographics
- Food Lifestyle Segmentation: Variety on a Budget& True Foodies
- Graph 10-1: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
- Chipotle Mexican Grill users: gourmets, meet practicality
- Table 10-2: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
- Chipotle by the numbers
- Table 10-3: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Selected Metrics, 2007-09
- Q2 2010 sales driven by increased visits
- Outlook
- Table 10-4: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Quarterly Sales Metrics, 2009-10
- Panera Bread
- 2009-2010 lunch strategy has positive momentum
- Trading up
- “You Pick”!
- Owning the menu category
- Next up: Paninis
- Catering: going after the big fish
- Loyalty programcoming to a Panera near you
- A toe in the licensing water
- Panera Bread: selected demographics
- A 16.4 million universe
- Strong income and gender skew
- Table 10-5: Panera Bread Users: Selected Demographics
- Panera Bread Food Lifestyle Segmentation
- Variety on a Budgetand True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequency
- Graph 10-2: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
- Panera Bread users: food, health and diet attitudes
- A more health-conscious bunch with a touch of food guilt
- Table 10-6: Panera Bread Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
- Sales trending upward
- Table 10-7: Panera Bread, Selected Metrics, 2007-09
- Q2 2010 same-store sales jump almost 10%
- Shift in menu mix suggests movement toward higher-priced items
- Table 10-8: Panera Bread, Quarterly Sales Metrics, Q2 2009 & Q2 2010
- Freshii—the new name in healthful fare
- The Freshii store and menu
- Fast and convenient
- Health placed front and center
- Calories and other health information updated in real time
- A Freshii view of customization
- Technology savvy
- Green initiatives
- Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts
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