Latino Foodservice Trends in the U.S.

Nov 1, 2011
132 Pages - Pub ID: LA6501278
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Hispanic consumers are central to restaurant industry growth: Hispanic share of consumer-driven restaurant sales is on the upswing, with growth of 4.7% in 2011, almost double that of the U.S. consumers generally. Latino Foodservice Trends in the U.S. provides industry participants with valuable insights about the impact Hispanics are having on the restaurant industry:

  • How the prevalence of Hispanic youth, children, and choice of language spoken affect restaurant usage, supported by restaurant usage frequency analysis

  • How Hispanic perceptions about consumer confidence affect their frequency of restaurant use and why marketing messages should be tailored accordingly

  • How geography and featured cuisine affect Hispanic guest traffic volume and growth

  • Analysis of “hot” ethnic cuisine trends; Mexican menu items; Caribbean, Mexican, South American menu item penetration; and brand LTO/new menu items.

  • Challenging commonly held beliefs about Hispanics’ views on the importance of the kitchen and at-home family dining—and why full-service restaurant share gains suggest that a significant shift is underway

  • Understanding the greater conflict on the part of Hispanics than on the part of non-Hispanics regarding healthful eating perceptions.

  • Which restaurant segments and brands (by foodservice sales) are growing Hispanic share

This report covers Latino foodservice trends in the United States. Scope of analysis is limited largely to the full-service, limited-service and snack and beverage segments of the restaurant industry, and includes analysis of 4-year Hispanic restaurant spending trends by restaurant segment; 5-year Hispanic guest traffic analysis by restaurant segment, sub-segment and brand; menu item analysis (primarily Mexican but also Caribbean and South American, as well as limited-time offer and new item analysis). Trends are framed within the context of the general population as well as that of non-Hispanics. A market size and forecast for restaurant sales to Hispanic consumers (with segment analysis) is included.

The report also covers the following topics:

  • Drivers pertinent to the Hispanic share of the restaurant sales, including population and income growth trends; demographic drivers; language and acculturation; Hispanic consumer confidence; and geographic trends and related brand analysis.

  • Hispanic health issues and trends pertinent to the restaurant industry, including obesity trends and related sociological issues; attitudes toward health, diet and food, with a focus on their views on healthy fast food, the nutritional value of food, and the importance of the kitchen to their home.

  • Combined sales and guest traffic trends during 2007-11 among the top 25 restaurant brands by sales, as well as a wider net of top brands according to Hispanic share of use.

Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Scope and Methodology
Scope of coverage
Methodology
Consumer survey methodology
Menu item analysis
Methodology
Market size and forecast
Hispanic restaurant spend trending
Definitions
Share of Stomach: Latino Foodservice Market Size and Forecast
Insight capsule
Latino Foodservice: Macrotrends and Drivers
Insight capsule
Fast Facts
Latinos in Context: Cuisine and Menu Trends
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Restaurants, Hispanics & Health
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Latinos in Context: Food & Restaurant Spending Trends
Insight Capsule
Fast Facts
Latinos in Context: Restaurant Industry Guest Traffic Trends
Insight Capsule
Latinos in Context: Casual Restaurant Guest Traffic Trends
Insight Capsule
Latinos in Context: Family Restaurant Guest Traffic Trends
Insight Capsule
Latinos in Context: Quick-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Trends
Insight Capsule
Latinos in Context: Snack & Beverage Concept Guest Traffic Trends
Insight Capsule
Latinos in Context: Restaurant Brand Analysis
Insight Capsule


Chapter 2: Share of Stomach: Latino Foodservice Market Size and Forecast
Introduction
Restaurant sales to consumers
Graph 2-1: Restaurant Sales to Consumers, 2006-11
Limited-service restaurant sales to consumers fare better than full-service sales
Graph 2-2: Restaurant Sales to Consumers, by Segment, 2006-11
Hispanic share of restaurant sales ticks upward
Graph 2-3: Restaurant Sales to Consumers, Share of Sales to Hispanics, 2006-11
Balancing population growth, unemployment trends and HH income
Graph 2-4: Restaurant Sales to Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Consumers,
Percent Change, 2007-11
Hispanic momentum in full-service restaurants’ favor
Graph 2-5: Full-Service Restaurant Sales to Consumers, Share of Sales to Hispanics, 2006-11
Graph 2-6: Full-Service Restaurant Sales to Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Consumers,
Percent Change, 2007-11
Limited-service Hispanic restaurant share plateaus
Graph 2-7: Limited-Service Restaurant Sales to Consumers, Share of Sales to Hispanics, 2006-11
Graph 2-8: Limited-Service Restaurant Sales to Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Consumers,
Percent Change, 2007-11


Chapter 3: Latino Foodservice: Macrotrends and Drivers
Overview
Hispanic importance to market will only grow over time
Table 3-1: Hispanic Population, Share of Total Population, by Age, 2005-2025
Hispanic HH income and household wealth lags
Table 3-2: Income Analysis, by Race/Gender
But share of consumer spending and buying power on the upswing
Table 3-3: Average Annual Expenditures by Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Consumer Units, 2005-09
Table 3-4: Aggregate Spending by Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Consumer Units, 2005-09
And significant gains in buying power projected
Table 3-5: Projected Growth in Hispanic Buying Power, 2010-15
Key restaurant demographic drivers: youth and males
Youthful Hispanic population important to all restaurant segments
Table 3-6: Population by Selected Age Group, Hispanics vs. Other Population Groups, 2009
Population share + restaurant use and usage frequency = important
Table 3-7: Restaurant Segment Use and Usage Frequency Among Hispanics, by Age, 2011
Males the majority
Table 3-8: Population by Gender, Hispanics vs. Other Population Groups, 2009
But restaurant usage and usage frequency tilts to Hispanic females
Table 3-9: Restaurant Segment Use and Usage Frequency Among Hispanics, by Gender, 2011
Larger, family households with children
Latino households much larger than average
Table 3-10: Population by Gender, Hispanics vs. Other Population Groups, 2009
Regional variations
Language and acculturation
Table 3-11: Percent of Hispanic Population Foreign-Born, 2009
Table 3-12: Percent of Hispanic Population Foreign-Born, by Age Group, 2009
Most Latinos Are English-speakers
Table 3-13: English-Language Capabilities of Hispanics 5 Years Old and Over, 2009
Influence of English language grows
Table 3-14: English-Language Capabilities of Hispanics 5 Years Old and Over, 2000-09
Marketing correctly to multicultural consumers
Taco Bell’s talking Chihuahua
The Spanish media angle
Olive Garden: Spanish media; mainstream restaurant chain
A question of confidence
Opportunity: target Hispanics in view of restaurant usage & degree of confidence
Table 3-15: Degree of Consumer Confidence, Correlation to Restaurant Usage by Segment,
Hispanics vs. Non-Hispanics
Know your geography
Graph 3-1: Hispanic/Latino Population as Percent of Total Population by County, 2010
Highly concentrated Hispanic areas influence leading restaurants’ Hispanic share
Jack in the Box geographic analysis
Table 3-16: Jack in the Box Location & Hispanic Population Analysis
Denny’s geographic analysis
Table 3-17: Denny’s Location & Hispanic Population Analysis
But it’s not just about location; it’s also about cuisine type
Domino’s delivers to Hispanics
Table 3-18: Domino’s Location & Hispanic Population Analysis


Chapter 4: Latinos in Context: Cuisine and Menu Trends
Overview
Top ethnic cuisine and flavor trends
What’s hot?
Table 4-1: Top Ethnic Cuisine and Flavor Trends, 2011
Mexican on the menu
Top sauces and flavors on Mexican menus
Table 4-2: Top Sauces and Flavors at Mexican Restaurants,
Incidence and Penetration, 2011
Top Mexican sauces and flavors used across restaurant industry
Table 4-2: Top Mexican Sauces and Flavors, All Restaurant Menus, Incidence and Penetration, 2011
Top Mexican entrees vary by segment
Table 4-3: Top Mexican Entrees, Restaurant Penetration, by Segment, 2011
Regional variation
Table 4-4: Top Mexican Entrees, Restaurant Penetration, by Region, 2011
Top Mexican appetizers
Table 4-5: Top Mexican Appetizers, Restaurant Penetration, by Segment, 2011
More than just Mexican
Shared in common
Mexican menu presence dwarfs those of other Latin American regions
Table 4-6: Latino/Hispanic Cuisine: Restaurant Industry
Menu Incidence & Brand Penetration, by Segment, 2011
Non-Hispanic cuisine chains
Pizza chain mixes traditional pizza offerings with Latino-influenced fare
Table 4-7: Domino’s Pizza: Latin-Influenced Menu Item Introductions, 2010-11
Breakfast mainstay spices up menu
Table 4-8: Denny’s: Latin-Influenced Menu Item Introductions, 2010-11
Casual Bar & Grill player innovates with Hispanic-influenced fare
Table 4-9: Chili’s: Latin-Influenced Menu Item Introductions, 2010-11
Burgers with flair
Table 4-10: Sonic: Latin-Influenced Menu Item Introductions, 2010-11
Studying high concentration areas
Diversity on the menu
Studying street food


Chapter 5: Restaurants, Hispanics & Health
Making health a priority
The argument in dollars and cents
Obesity rates among Hispanics trending higher
Graph 5-1: Age-Adjusted Prevalence of Overweight, Obesity and Extreme Obesity among U.S. Adults, Age 20-74 Years
Rates among Hispanic children on the rise
Graph 5-2: Obesity Rates, Ages 2-19, All versus Hispanic, 1988-2008
Lower incomes = higher obesity rates
Rates among men and women by race and ethnicity differ
Graph 5-3: Obese Adults Age 20 and Over, by Poverty Income Ratio and Race/Ethnicity, Percentage of Male and Female Obese Adults: 2005-08
Hispanic culture and practices significantly influence obesity perceptions
Burst and bust short-time financial cycle leads to food sharing
Feeding children a symbol of nurturing and achievement
Obesity not perceived as negative
Study ramifications for restaurant industry
Hispanic poverty is widespread
Hispanic diet, health & food attitudes: a myth exposed & health contradiction?
Healthful eating conundrum
Positive breakfast trend; negative ingredient knowledge trend
Table 5-1: Hispanic Diet, Health & Food Attitudes: Percentage Use, Index to Non-Hispanics, 2006-11
Healthy fast food? Not so fast!
Generational differences compounded by usage-frequency differences
Table 5-2: Healthy Fast Food Endorsement: Percentage Use, Hispanic Generation Index to General Population, 2011
But HH income tells a different story
Table 5-3: Healthy Fast Food Endorsement: Percentage Use, Hispanic HH Income & Gen Y Gender Index to General Population, 2011
Nutrition
Table 5-4: Food Nutrition Importance: Percentage Use, Hispanic Generation & Gen Y Gender Index to General Population, 2011
The importance of the kitchen is relative
The kitchen is much more important to some than to others
Debunking a myth: importance of kitchen does not deter Hispanic restaurant use?
Table 5-5: Kitchen Importance: Percentage Use, Hispanic Generation & Gen Y Gender Index to General Population, 2011


Chapter 6: Latinos in Context: Food & Restaurant Spending Trends
Overview
Hispanic HH income and household wealth lags
Table 6-1: Income Analysis, by Race/Gender
But share of consumer spending and buying power on the upswing
Table 6-2: Average Annual Expenditures by Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Consumer Units, 2005-09
Table 6-3: Aggregate Spending by Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Consumer Units, 2005-09
Table 6-4: Income Analysis, by Race/Gender
Hispanic household spending trends
Hispanic food spending trends
Graph 6-1: Hispanic Household Food Spending, 2005-09
Gap between narrows between food-away-from-home and food-at-home spending
Graph 6-2: Hispanic Household Food Spending,
Share of Total Spend, 2005-09 2005-09
Hispanic restaurant spending trends
Graph 6-3: Hispanic Household Food-Away-From-Home Spending, by Segment, 2005-09
Full-service restaurant share gains suggest that significant shift is underway
Graph 6-4: Hispanic Household Food-Away-From-Home Spending,
Share of Total Spend, 2005-09
Hispanic daypart spending trends
Graph 6-5: Hispanic Household Restaurant Spend Share, by Daypart, 2005-09
Per household versus per person restaurant spending
Graph 6-6: Hispanic Restaurant Spend: Per Household & Per Person, 2005-09
Breakfast spending increases defy recession
Graph 6-7: Hispanic Breakfast Daypart Spend: Per Household & Per Person, 2005-09
Lunch
Graph 6-8: Hispanic Lunch Daypart Spend: Per Household & Per Person, 2005-09
Dinner
Graph 6-9: Hispanic Breakfast Daypart Spend: Per Household & Per Person, 2005-09
Snack
Graph 6-10: Hispanic Snack Daypart Spend: Per Household & Per Person, 2005-09


Chapter 7: Latinos in Context: Restaurant Industry Guest Traffic Trends
Overview
A growth driver
Population growth saves industry
Table 7-1: Restaurant Usage by Segment: All Consumers, 2007-11
Hispanic growth is the key
Table 7-2: Restaurant Usage Among Latino/Hispanics, by Segment, 2007-11
Hispanic usage share increases in all major restaurant segments
Table 7-3: Latino/Hispanic Restaurant Usage Share, by Segment, 2007-11
Standouts: Family breakfast restaurants
Standouts: Pizza establishments
Table 7-4: Indexed Restaurant Usage by Segment & Sub-Segment: Hispanic/Latinos & Non-Hispanic/Latinos, 2011
Usage, by demographic
Gender trends
Table 7-5: Restaurant Usage by Segment, All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latinos, by Gender, 2011
Generation gap
Table 7-6: Restaurant Usage by Segment, All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latinos, by Generation, 2011
Income plays significant role
Table 7-7: Restaurant Usage by Segment, All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latinos, by HH Income, 2011
Full-service restaurant usage trends, by segment
Table 7-8: Full-Service Restaurant Usage by Segment: All Consumers, 2007-11
Hispanic share
Table 7-9: Full-Service Restaurant Usage Among Latino/Hispanics, by Segment, 2007-11
Table 7-10: Latino/Hispanic Full-Service Restaurant Usage Share, by Segment, 2007-11
Full-service usage frequency
Table 7-11: Full-Service Restaurant Visit Frequency in Past Month: Hispanic/Latino Consumers vs. Non-Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Table 7-12: Full-Service Restaurant Usage, by Daypart: Hispanic/Latino Consumers vs. Non-Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Spanish-speaking Hispanics skew to snacking and breakfast dayparts
Limited-service restaurant usage, by segment
Table 7-13: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage by Segment: All Consumers, 2007-11
Table 7-14: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Among Latino/Hispanics, by Segment, 2007-11
Table 7-15: Latino/Hispanic Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Share, by Segment, 2007-11
Limited-service restaurant usage frequency
Table 7-16: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency: Hispanic/Latino Consumers vs. Non-Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Table 7-17: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage, by Daypart: Hispanic/Latino Consumers vs. Non-Hispanic/Latino Consumers


Chapter 8: Latinos in Context: Casual Restaurant Guest Traffic Trends
Overview
Hispanic share of Casual Bar & Grill and Italian higher than Casual Steak
Table 8-1: Casual Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Casual Sub-Segment: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Hispanic usage lags, and demographic trends mirror general population
Table 8-2: Casual Restaurant Usage, All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latinos, by Gender, Generation & HH Income, 2011
Casual Bar & Grill brand analysis
Table 8-3: Casual Bar & Grill Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Olive Garden advertising paying off?
Table 8-4: Casual Italian Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Steak’s on!
Table 8-5: Casual Steak Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers


Chapter 9: Latinos in Context: Family Restaurant Guest Traffic Trends
Overview: Food health attributes that determine choice of a “quick bite”
Family restaurants a Hispanic favorite
Table 9-1: Family Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Segment: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Demographic snapshot
Table 9-2: Full-Service & Limited-Service Family Restaurant Usage, All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latinos, by Gender, Generation & HH Income, 2011
Limited-service family restaurant brand analysis
Table 9-3: Limited-Service Family Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Family breakfast restaurant brand analysis
Table 9-4: Family Breakfast Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Family all-day restaurant brand analysis
Table 9-5: Family All-Day Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers


Chapter 10: Latinos in Context: QuickService Restaurant Guest Traffic Trends
Overview
Enormous quick-service restaurant usage footprint
Table 10-1: Quick-Service Restaurant Usage Frequency:
All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Quick-service restaurant usage, by segment
Table 10-2: Quick-Service Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Segment: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Hispanic Burger usage in line with average
170 million users; 13.2% Hispanic share
Table 10-3: QSR Burger Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Pizza, pizza!
A Hispanic draw
Table 10-4: QSR Pizza Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers
Mexican QSRs outperform
Taco Bell the exception
Table 10-5: QSR Mexican Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers


Chapter 11: Latinos in Context: Snack & Beverage Concept Guest Traffic Trends
Overview
Snack and beverage: a demographic overview
Table 11-1: Snack & Beverage Restaurant Usage, All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latinos, by Gender, Generation & HH Income, 2011
Hispanic share lags that of QSR
Jamba Juice: usage leader
Table 11-2: Snack and Beverage Restaurant Usage Metrics, by Restaurant Brand: All Consumers vs. Hispanic/Latino Consumers


Chapter 12: Latinos in Context: Restaurant Brand Analysis
Top 25 restaurant brands: tale of the tape
Five-year Hispanic growth triple that of population as a whole
Hispanic share gains
Thanks to largest overall usage footprint, McDonald’s draws most Hispanics
But eight other brands register explosive usage growth
McDonald’s versus burger rivals
Burger saturation—or are burgers just not hitting the mark?
High Hispanic share
Low Hispanic share
Share gainers
Table 12-1: Top 25 Restaurant Brands: System-wide Sales & Hispanic Share of Guest Traffic, 2007-11
Top 25 quick take: Hispanic vs. all consumers restaurant brand usage
Graph 12-1: Top 25 Restaurant Brands by Sales, Hispanic/Latino versus General Population Use, 2011
Top 25 quick take: Hispanic vs. all consumers restaurant brand usage likelihood
Graph 12-2: Top 25 Restaurant Brands by Sales, Hispanic/Latino Indexed Use, 2011
Throwing a wider net: large and mid-size chains
Table 12-2: Restaurant Brands with High Hispanic Usage Share:
Indexed Use, Revenue and Units, 2011

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