U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020

May 4, 2017
172 Pages - Pub ID: LA5308678
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U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020



Consumer payment preferences are changing faster than ever before, migrating further toward electronic and card-based payments and away from paper-based payments such as cash and check. Hastening this migration, e-commerce and m-commerce are transforming the consumer payments industry, tilting the balance further in favor of bill- and non-bill electronic and card-based payments; while P2P payments take digital shape. Cash and check are on the chopping block: Dropping from an 8.7% share in 2016, Packaged Facts expects cash to comprise 6.9% of consumer payment value in 2020, with declines also noted for check payments, with card-based and electronic payment picking up the slack.

These shifts in consumer payment preferences are shaping the value and volume of payments made, affecting market share for cash, debit cards, prepaid cards, credit cards, electronic payments such as online banking bill payment and bank account payment, and of course cash and check. This, in turn, has ramifications for consumer payments industry participants drawing revenue or paying fees from the consumer payments food chain.

Addressing this shift, Packaged Facts’ U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020 provides both trended consumer usage, behavior and attitude analysis on consumer payments and market sizes and forecasts through 2020 for key consumer payments instruments and methods.

Packaged Facts' report, U.S. Consumer Payments Outlook Through 2020, emphasizes 2007-2016 survey trending of consumer payment usage and behavior, segmented by payment instrument and method: credit card, debit card, prepaid card, cash, check, online and mobile payments, and P2P and money transfers, with demographic analysis.

Consumer Payment Market Trends include:


  • Consumer credit card usage, monthly usage, engagement rate, monthly usage frequency, number of cards in wallet, card balances, and credit profile, with demographic analysis and usage by card association.
  • Consumer debit card usage, monthly usage, engagement rate, and monthly usage frequency (cash withdrawal and purchases), with demographic analysis and usage by card association.
  • Prepaid usage trends, reloadable vs. non-reloadable and by card association
  • Cash usage analysis, including amounts carried, cash withdrawal amounts, cash preference by merchant vertical, small value payments, likelihood of cash being used as preferred payment instrument; degree of using cash to pay for goods and services; reasons for choosing cash over payment cards; cash preferences regarding purchases and bill payment, influence of cash preference on payment cards (by type of card), and influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness.
  • Online and mobile payment preferences, including remote payments vs. in-person payments, online purchasing usage penetration, online and mobile purchase frequency trends, online payment method of choice, phone/mail payment usage methods, emerging and tradition payment methods used to pay bills, forms of payment used to pay bills, mobile wallet funding method, and mobile wallet payment entry method.
  • P2P and money transfer usage methods, including usage of and interest in bank-driven P2P and instant P2P payment.
  • Monthly payment volume and payment volume share, by payment instrument, including cash, check, debit card, credit card and online banking bill payment.
  • Market sizing and forecasting includes:
  • 2012-2020 market size and forecast for U.S. noncash payment value and volume, segmented by debit cards, prepaid cards, credit cards, ACH payments, and checks.
  • 2012-2020 market size and forecast for U.S. consumer payment value and volume, segmented by cash, debit card, credit card, check, electronic payments, and other payment types.
  • 2012-2016 market size for general-purpose consumer payment card value, segmented by debit/prepaid card and credit card and by card association.
  • 2012-2020 credit card and debit card usage forecasts
  • 2012-2020 retail sales and ecommerce sales market size and forecast
  • 2012 vs. 2015 market size for remote vs. in-person general-purpose payment card value
  • 2012-2016 market size for consumer ACH payment value and volume, segmented by direct deposit payment, online banking bill payment; payments initiated by telephone and payments initiated online.
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REPORT SCOPE
REPORT SUMMARY
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
U.S. payments value & volume: market size and forecast
U.S. consumer payments value & volume: market size and forecast
Consumer payment card market size
Key trends and observations
CONSUMER CREDIT CARD PAYMENTS
Consumer general-purpose credit card payment market size
Credit card usage forecast
A credit-based payment tool lagging only cash and debit in usage
Balances outstanding and number of cards trend downward
Subprime borrowers no longer a factor
Usage trends
Demographic trends
Usage trends over time
Usage frequency trends over time
Number of cards in wallet: trends over time
CONSUMER DEBIT AND PREPAID CARD PAYMENTS
Debit card usage forecast
Debit card usage trends
Demographic trends
Usage trends over time
2010-2016 usage trends by demographic
Cash and purchase usage and usage frequency trends
Prepaid card usage trends
ACH PAYMENTS
ACH payments market size
ACH consumer payment market size
Online banking bill payment usage growth trends
Consumer bank account number payment usage growth trends
CHECK PAYMENTS
Check payments market size
Consumer check payments
CASH PAYMENTS
U.S. consumer cash payment value & volume: market size & forecast
Carrying cash
Cash withdrawal amounts
In important ways, cash remains king
Cash takes a hit but remains resilient
Small value payments
Cash less likely to be preferred payment instrument
Degree of using cash to pay for goods and services
Reasons for choosing cash over payment cards
Cash preferences: paying for purchases and bills
Influence of cash preference on payment cards, by type
Influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness
ONLINE AND MOBILE PAYMENTS
Remote payment growth rate twice the in-person payment rate
Online purchasing usage penetration growth slowing down
Online and mobile purchase frequency trends
Credit cards the online payment method of choice; PayPal firmly established
Phone/mail payment usage methods see check declines
Bill payment methods used: trends over time
Form of payment used to pay bills: trends over time
Mobile wallet funding method
Mobile wallet payment entry method
P2P AND MONEY TRANSFER
P2P and money transfer usage methods: trends over time
Bank-driven P2P and Instant P2P payment: usage and interest
CHAPTER 2: MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
U.S. PAYMENTS VALUE & VOLUME: MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Payments value and volume: 2012-2020
Table 2-1: U.S. Payments Value, 2012-2020
Table 2-2: U.S. Payments Value: CAGR and Total Growth Rate, 2012-2015 and 2015-2010
Table 2-3: U.S. Payments Volume, 2012-2020
Table 2-4: U.S. Payments Volume: CAGR and Total Growth Rate, 2012-2015 and 2015-2010
U.S. CONSUMER PAYMENTS VALUE & VOLUME: MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Consumer payments value and volume: 2012-2020
Table 2-5: Consumer Payments Value, by Payment Instrument, 2012-2016
Table 2-6: Consumer Payments Value, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2020
Table 2-7: Consumer Payments Volume, by Payment Instrument, 2012-2016
Table 2-8: Consumer Payments Volume, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2020
CONSUMER PAYMENT CARD MARKET SIZE
Consumer general-purpose card payment value: 2012-2016
Consumer payment value by card type
Table 2-9: Consumer General-Purpose Card Payment Value: Credit vs. Debit/Prepaid, 2012-2016
Consumer payment value by card association
Table 2-10: Consumer General-Purpose Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
KEY TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS
eCommerce & Mobile
Table 2-11: U.S. Retail Sales: Total and eCommerce, 2007-2016
Table 2-12: U.S. Retail Sales Forecast: Total and eCommerce, 2016-20
Traditional accounts remain bedrock
Table 2-13: Checking and Savings Account Ownership, 2007-2016
Traditional and emerging accounts and payment instruments blurring
Table 2-14: Traditional and Emerging Accounts and Payment Instruments: Usage by Type and Demographic, 2016
Large-value payments
CHAPTER 3: CONSUMER CREDIT CARD PAYMENTS
CONSUMER GENERAL-PURPOSE CREDIT CARD PAYMENT MARKET SIZE
Table 3-1: Consumer General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
Visa takes share; American Express lags
Table 3-2: Consumer General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
CREDIT CARD USAGE FORECAST
Table 3-3: Active General-Purpose Credit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2007-2016
Table 3-4: Active General-Purpose Credit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2016-2020
CREDIT CARD TRENDS
A credit-based payment tool lagging only cash and debit in usage
Table 3-5: Consumer Credit Card Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
Balances outstanding and number of cards trend downward
Table 3-6: Credit Cards: Cards Outstanding, Users, and Balances, 2008 vs. 2016
Table 3-7: American Express Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly American Express Bill Paid, 2007-2016
Table 3-8: Discover Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly Discover Bill Paid, 2007-2016
Table 3-9: MasterCard Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly MasterCard Bill Paid, 2007-2016
Table 3-10: Visa Credit Card Users: Portion of Monthly Visa Bill Paid, 2007-2016
Subprime borrowers no longer a factor
Table 3-11: Credit Card Usage, by Credit Score, 2007-2015
Table 3-12: Net Credit Limit Extensions and Reductions, by Credit Score, 2007-2015
USAGE TRENDS
Table 3-13: Credit Card Usage Penetration, 2008-2014
Table 3-14: Credit Card Usage, by Type, 2007-2016
Demographic trends
Table 3-15: Credit Card Usage Penetration, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
Table 3-16: Credit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
Table 3-18: Credit Card Usage Penetration, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
Table 3-19: Credit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013 2007-2016 trends
Table 3-20: Credit Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
Table 3-21: Credit Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016 2010-2016 demographic trends
Table 3-22: General-Purpose Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
USAGE FREQUENCY TRENDS
Table 3-23: Credit Card Monthly Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
Table 3-24: General-Purpose Credit Card Monthly Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
Table 3-25: Department Store Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency Share, 2007-2016
Demographic trends
Table 3-26: General-Purpose Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency, by Age, 2010 vs. 2016
Table 3-27: General-Purpose Credit Card Use and Monthly Usage Frequency, by HH Income, 2010 vs. 2016
NUMBER OF CARDS IN WALLET: TRENDS OVER TIME
Table 3-30: Percent of Adults Having General-Purpose Credit Cards and Share by Number of Cards, by Brand, 2007-2016
Table 3-31: MasterCard and Visa Credit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
Table 3-32: American Express and Discover Credit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
CHAPTER 4: CONSUMER DEBIT AND PREPAID CARD PAYMENTS
CONSUMER GENERAL-PURPOSE DEBIT & PREPAID CARD PAYMENT MARKET SIZE
Table 4-1: Consumer General-Purpose Debit & Prepaid Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
Visa dominates
Table 4-2: Consumer General-Purpose Debit & Prepaid Card Payment Value, by Payment Network Brand, 2012-2016
DEBIT CARD USAGE FORECAST
Table 4-3: Active General-Purpose Debit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2007-2016
Table 4-4: Active General-Purpose Debit Card Usage: Percentage Use and Population, 2016-2020
DEBIT CARD TRENDS
A core payment tool for bills and non-bills
Table 4-5: Consumer Debit Card Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
USAGE TRENDS
Table 4-6: Debit Card Usage Penetration, 2008-2014
Table 4-7: Debit Card Usage, by Type, 2007-2016
Demographic trends
Table 4-8: Debit Card Usage Penetration, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
Table 4-9: Debit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by Age, 2009 vs. 2013
Table 4-10: Debit Card Usage Penetration, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
Table 4-11: Debit Card Percent Usage Volume: Share of Consumer Payments, by HH Income, 2009 vs. 2013
2007-2016 trends
Table 4-12: Debit Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
Table 4-13: Debit Card Usage in Last 30 Days, by Type and Brand, 2007-2016
2010-2016 demographic trends
Table 4-14: Used Debit Card in Past 30 Days: ATM-Only and General-Purpose Debit Card Usage Share, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
Cash and purchase usage and usage frequency trends
Table 4-15: MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Total Transactions, 2010-2016
Table 4-16: MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Purchase Transactions, 2010-2016
Table 4-17: MasterCard & Visa Debit Card Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days: Cash Transactions, 2010-2016
Table 4-18: ATM-Only Debit Card Usage & Usage Frequency in Last 30 Days, 2010-2016
PREPAID CARD USAGE TRENDS
2010-2016 trends
Table 4-19: Prepaid Card Usage, by Type and Brand, 2010-2016
Table 4-20: Prepaid Card Usage, by Brand, 2010-2016
2010-2016 demographic trends
Table 4-21: Prepaid Card Use by Brand and Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
Table 4-22: Prepaid Card Use by Brand and Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
CHAPTER 5: ACH PAYMENTS
ACH PAYMENTS MARKET SIZE
Payments value: 2012-2020
Table 5-1: U.S. ACH Payments Value and Volume, 2012-2020
Credit vs. debit transfers
Network operator vs. on-us transactions
Table 5-2: ACH Payment Value and Volume: Network, On-Us, Credit and Debit, 2012 vs. 2015
ACH CONSUMER PAYMENT MARKET SIZE
Network ACH payments value and volume: 2012-2020
Table 5-3: ACH Payments: Value and Volume, 2009-2016
Consumer ACH payments value and volume: 2012-2020
Table 5-4: ACH Consumer Payments: Value and Volume, 2009-2016
Market size: Consumer ACH direct deposit payments
Table 5-5: ACH Direct Deposit, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
Market size: Consumer ACH online banking bill payments
Table 5-6: ACH Online Banking Bill Payment, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
Market size: Consumer ACH payments initiated online vs. telephone
Table 5-7: ACH Telephone and Web Payment, Value and Volume, 2009-2016
ONLINE BANKING BILL PAYMENT USAGE GROWTH TRENDS
Table 5-8: Consumer Online Banking Bill Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
CONSUMER BANK ACCOUNT NUMBER PAYMENT USAGE GROWTH TRENDS
Table 5-9: Consumer Bank Account Number Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
CHAPTER 6: CHECK PAYMENTS
CHECK PAYMENTS MARKET SIZE
Table 6-1: Check Value and Volume: Checks Written, Converted to ACH and Payments, 2012 vs. 2015
Consumer check payments: Still broadly used but with low—and lesser—frequency
Table 6-2: Consumer Check Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
CONSUMER CHECK PAYMENTS
Federal Reserve data sets the stage
Trended consumer survey analysis suggests steady, consistent decline
Table 6-3: Percent of Bill Payers Who Use Checks: Always, Sometimes and Never, 2010-2016
Demographic analysis
Table 6-4: Bill Payers Who Always Use Checks: Indexed Usage, by Demographic, 2016
CHAPTER 7: CASH PAYMENTS
U.S. CONSUMER CASH PAYMENT VALUE & VOLUME: MARKET SIZE & FORECAST
Table 7-1: U.S. Consumer Cash Payments Value and Volume, 2012-2020
CARRYING AND WITHDRAWING CASH
Cash in circulation: big bill boom
Table 7-2: Currency in Circulation: Value and Value Share, by Denomination, 2007-2016
Carrying cash
Cash withdrawal amounts higher than credit card and debit card payment value
Table 7-3: Number and Value of ATM Withdrawals at Depository Institutions, by Withdrawal Type, 2003-2015
IN IMPORTANT WAYS, CASH REMAINS KING
Table 7-4: Consumer Cash Payments: Monthly Payment Volume, by Payment Type, 2012-2014
Cash takes a hit but remains resilient
Breadth of merchant use
Small value payments
THE CASH USER
Cash less likely to be preferred payment instrument
Who loves cash?
Degree of using cash to pay for goods and services
Table 7-5: Degree of Using Cash to Pay for Goods and Services, 2016
Table 7-6: Degree of Using Cash to Pay for Goods and Services, by Demographic, 2016
Reasons for choosing cash over payment cards
Table 7-7: Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, 2016
Table 7-8: Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, by Demographic, 2016
Table 7-9: Reasons for Choosing Cash over Payment Cards, by Frequency of Cash Use, 2016
Cash preferences: paying for purchases and bills
Table 7-10: Degree of Preference for Paying with Cash, by Demographic, 2010 vs. 2016
Table 7-11: Degree of Preference for Using Cash to Pay Bills, by Demographic, 2016
Influence of cash preference on payment cards, by type
Table 7-12: Relationship of Cash Preferences to Credit Card Usage, 2016
Table 7-13: Relationship of Cash Preferences to Debit Card Purchase and Cash Usage, 2016
Table 7-14: Relationship of Cash Preferences to Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Prepaid Card Usage, 2016
Influence of cash preference on banking relationship and creditworthiness
Table 7-15: Relationship of Cash Preferences to Banking Relationship and Types of Loans Used,2016
Table 7-16: Relationship of Cash Preferences to Credit Score, 2016
CHAPTER 8: ONLINE AND MOBILE PAYMENTS
REMOTE PAYMENT GROWTH RATE TWICE THE IN-PERSON PAYMENT RATE
Table 8-1: General-Purpose Card Payments Volume and Value: In-Person vs. Remote, 2012-2015
PAYMENT METHOD USAGE TRENDS
Online purchasing usage penetration growth slowing down
Table 8-2: Payment Methods: Online vs. Phone or Mail, 2014-2016
Online and mobile purchase frequency trends
Table 8-3: Purchases Made Last 30 Days: Online Purchase Frequency and Mobile Purchases, 2010- 2016
Credit cards the online payment method of choice; PayPal firmly established
Table 8-4: Online Payment Methods Used, by Type, 2014-2016
Phone/mail payment usage methods see check declines
Table 8-5: Phone/Mail Payment Methods Used, by Type, 2014-2016
BILL PAYMENT TRENDS
Bill payment methods used: trends over time
Table 8-6: Bill Payment Methods Used, 2010-2016
Form of payment used to pay bills: trends over time
Table 8-7: Bill Payments: Form of Payment Always Used, 2010-2016
Table 8-8: Bill Payments: Form of Payment Sometimes Used, 2010-2016
Table 8-9: Bill Payments: Form of Payment Never Used, 2010-2016
MOBILE WALLETS
Mobile wallet funding method
PayPal: funding method disruptor
Mobile wallets also potential funding method disruptors
Table 8-10: Mobile Wallet Funding Method and Preferred Funding Method, 2016
Mobile wallet payment entry method
Table 8-11: Mobile Phone Purchasing: Payment Entry Method and Preferred Method, 2016
CHAPTER 9: P2P AND MONEY TRANSFER
P2P AND MONEY TRANSFER USAGE METHODS: TRENDS OVER TIME
Table 9-1: Sending/Receiving Money: Methods Used, 2010-2016
Bank-driven P2P usage and interest
Table 9-2: Bank Account with P2P Functionality: Usage and Interest, by Demographic, 2016
Instant P2P payment usage and interest
Table 9-3: Instant Electronic P2P Usage and Interest, by Demographic, 2016
APPENDIX
CONSUMER SURVEY METHODOLOGY
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Consumer payments market size and forecast
POPULATION ESTIMATES
TABLE INDEXES
KEY SOURCES
TERMS AND DEFINITIONS
Table X-X: Report Abbreviations
Table: Appendix: 1: Market-Based PCE, 2007-2016
TABLES
Table: Appendix: 2: Consumer Payment Instruments: Monthly Usage Penetration, 2010-2014
Table: Appendix: 3: Consumer Payments Made in Typical Month, by Payment Instrument, 2010-2014

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