Introduction
Scope Of Report
Seven Product Categories
In-Store And Freestanding Bakery/Doughnut Chain Coverage
Clarification Of Terms
Classification Of Products
Seven Sweet Baked Goods Product Categories
• Cookies
• Pastries
• Snack Cakes
• Cakes
• Doughnuts
• Pies
• Muffins

Shelf-Stable, Refrigerated, And Frozen Forms
Seasonal And Promotional Products
Fat-Free, Low-Fat, And Sugar-Free Sweet Baked Goods
Units Of Sale: Multiple Versus Single Servings
Product Packaging
Package Graphics
Regulatory Environment
Federal Oversight
The Nlea Nutrition Label
Industry Advocacy
Iso 9000 Certification
New Legislation In The Works

The Market

Market Size And Growth
Overall Sales Near $13 Billion In 2002
Table: U.S. Retail Sales Of Sweet Baked Goods, 1998-2002 (Dollars)
Measured Mass-Market Sales At $9.4 Billion
Mass-Market Cookie Sales At $4.6 Billion
Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Cookies, 1998-2002
Mass-Market Pastry Sales At $1.7 Billion
Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Pastries, 1998-2002
Mass-Market Snack Cake Sales At $870 Million
Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Snack Cakes, 1998-2002
Cake Sales At $740 Million
Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Cakes, 1998-2002
Doughnut Sales At $680 Million
Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Doughnuts, 1998-2002
Pie Sales At $540 Million
Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Pies, 1998-2002
Muffin Sales At $230 Million
Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Muffins, 1998-2002
Market Composition
Cookies Claim Nearly Half Of Sweet Baked Good Sales
Table: Share Of U.S. Retail Sales Of Sweet Baked Goods
• By Product Category, 1999 Vs. 2002


Nearly All Cookies Sold In Shelf-Stable Form
Toaster Pastries Account For Half Of Pastry Sales
Majority Of Snack Cakes Are Shelf Stable
Frozen And Refrigerated Cakes Building Momentum
Frozen Pie Sales Exceed Shelf Stable
Muffins Typically Shelf Stable
Market Share By Retailer Types
• Supermarkets Hold More Than Two-Thirds Share Of Sales
• Other Retail Outlets Capture Remaining Sales

Figure: Share Of U.S. Sweet Baked Goods Sales By Retailer Type, 1999 Vs. 2002
Holidays, Weather, Super Bowl All Affect Seasonality
Sales By Region
Table: Purchasing Indices For Selected Sweet Baked Goods Classifications: By Region, 2002
Sales By Race/Ethnicity
Table: Purchasing Indices For Selected Sweet Baked Goods Classifications: By Race/Ethnicity, 2002
Sales By Adult Age Bracket
Table: Purchasing Indices For Selected Sweet Baked Goods Classifications: By Adult Age Bracket, 2002
Sales By Household Size
Table: Purchasing Indices For Selected Sweet Baked Goods Classifications: By Household Size, 2002
Sales By Household Income Bracket
Table: Purchasing Indices For Selected Sweet Baked Goods Classifications: By Household Income Bracket, 2002
Factors To Market Growth

A Mature Market Spurred By Less Strict Eating Habits; Uncertain Times Bring Impulse To Indulge In Sweets
Competition From In-Store And Freestanding Bakery/Doughnut Chains
Economic Squeeze/Industry Consolidation Softens New Product Intros
Gains Will Be Marketer/Retailer Driven
Limited Shelf Space: A New Threat?
Extended Shelf Life Options
Promotional Efforts Take Center Stage
The Two Qs: Quickness And Quality
Convenient Fuel
Tastes Like Homemade
The Power Of Teen Spending
Gen Xers And The Love Of Snack
The Graying Of America
New Health Considerations Could Help/Hinder Sales
Private Label Quality Up: Private Label Sales Down
Projected Market Growth

Sales To Approach $15 Billion In 2007
Table: Projected U.S. Retail Sales Of Sweet Baked Goods, 2002-2007 (Dollars)

The Marketers

Marketer Overview
Hundreds Of Marketers, But Less Than 70 Significant
Leading Marketers Are Publicly Held
Many Marketers Are Regionalists And Locals
Large Sector Also Active In Private Label
Multi-Segment Marketers
Cookie Giants
Pastry Leaders
Snack Cake Marketers
Competing Cake Marketers
The Doughnut Leaders
Many Have A Slice Of The Pie Market
Major Muffin Marketers
Table: U.S. Market For Sweet Baked Goods: Selected Marketers By Brand Line And Product Type, 2002
Marketer And Brand Shares
Methodology For Estimates
No Single Marketer Dominates Across Categories
Kraft/Nabisco Control Mass-Market Cookie Sales
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Shelf-Stable Cookies, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Frozen And Refrigerated Cookie Dough Claimed By General Mills’ Pillsbury
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Frozen And Refrigerated Cookie Dough, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Bestfoods’ Command Of Pastries Eroded By Private Label
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Pastry Sales (Excluding Toaster Pastries), 2000-2002 (Percent)
Kellogg Dominates Shelf-Stable Toaster Pastry; Pillsbury Leads In Frozen
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Toaster Pastry Sales, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Interstate And Mckee Foods Battle For Snack Cake Category
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Shelf-Stable Snack Cakes, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Private Label Bests Bestfoods In Shelf-Stable Cakes
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Shelf-Stable Cakes, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Kraft Foods Outperforms In Refrigerated Cheesecakes
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Refrigerated Cheesecake, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Sara Lee Reigns Supreme In Frozen Cheesecake
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Frozen Cheesecake, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Bestfoods, Interstate, And Krispy Kreme Vie For Doughnut Share
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Doughnuts, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Private Label Leads Sales Of Shelf-Stable Pies
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Shelf-Stable Pies, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Schwan Food’s Mrs. Smith’s Commands Half Of Frozen Pie Sales
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Frozen Pies, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Interstate Trails Private Label In Shelf-Stable Muffin Sales
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Shelf-Stable Muffins, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Heinz/Weight Watchers Owns Frozen Muffin Category
Table: Marketer And Brand Shares Of U.S. Mass-Market Sales Of Frozen Muffins, 2000-2002 (Percent)
Competitive Overview

Marketplace Crowded
Ongoing Wave Of M&A Activity
Largely A Regional Competitive Scene
Opportunities Abound For Smaller, Niche Marketers
Competition Continues To Mount From Private Labelers
The Internal Competition: In-Store Bakeries

The External Competition: Doughnut Warriors

Competitive Profile: Bestfoods Baking Co.

Competitive Profile: General Mills, Inc./Pillsbury

Competitive Profile: H. J. Heinz Co./Weight Watchers

Competitive Profile: Interstate Bakeries Corp.

Competitive Profile: The Kellogg Co./Keebler

Competitive Profile: Kraft/Nabisco

Competitive Profile: Mckee Foods Corp.

Competitive Profile: Sara Lee Corp.

Competitive Profile: The Schwan Food Co. (Flowers Foods, Inc./Mrs. Smith’s Bakeries, Inc.)

Marketing And Retail Trends

Marketing And New Product Trends
An Emphasis On Indulgence
Tastes Like Mom’s
Convenience The Focus Of Product Size/Packaging
Kids Increasingly Targeted
Companies Concentrate On Promoting Major Brands
Bring On The Chocolate
Ethnic/Premium Products Driven By Maturing Tastes
Health Conscious Look For Natural Products
Many New Products; Even More Line Extensions
Table: U.S. Market For Sweet Baked Goods: Selected New Product Introductions, January 2002-March 2003
Advertising And Promotion
Annual Expenditures On National Consumer Advertising
Leading National Advertisers
Consumer Advertising Positioning
Consumer Promotion And Education
Trade Ads, Shows, And Incentives
At The Retail Level
Two Traditional Paths: Direct Sales Force, Four-Step Distribution
Types Of Dsd
Dsd Enhances Category Management
Dsd Becomes Increasingly Necessary As Retailers Consolidate
Kellogg/Keebler’s Dsd Lessons
Esl Options Can Determine Distribution Choice
Schedules Shift As Weekend Approaches
Retail Margins Relatively High
Vast Assortments Pumped Up With Specialty Items
Organization Of Sweet Baked Goods Shelves…
…Lends Itself To Cross-Shelving Opportunities
The Threat Of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods

The Consumer

Consumer Overview
The Simmons Survey System
79% Buy Rte Cookies
65% Buy Donuts
53% Buy Snack Cakes
50% Buy Refrigerated/Frozen Dough Products
43% Buy Breakfast Pastries
38% Buy Frozen Pies/Cakes/Pastries
37% Buy Toaster Pastries
Consumer Focus: Cookies
Demographic Analysis And Tables:
By Type
By Brand
By Boxes Used In Last Month
Consumer Focus: Donuts
Demographic Analysis And Tables:
By Brand
Consumer Focus: Snack Cakes
Demographic Analysis And Tables:
By Type
By Brand
By Use In Last Week
Consumer Focus: Refrigerated/Frozen Dough Products
Demographic Analysis And Tables:
By Type (Brownies, Cookies, And Sweet Rolls)
By Brand
Refrigerated Products By Packages Used In Last 30 Days
Frozen Products By Packages Used In Last 30 Days
Consumer Focus: Breakfast Pastries
Demographic Analysis And Tables:
By Type
By Brand
Consumer Focus: Frozen Pies/Cakes/Pastries
Demographic Analysis And Tables:
By Type
By Brand
By Use In Last Month
Consumer Focus: Toaster Pastries
Demographic Analysis And Tables:
By Brand
By Use In Last Month
Looking Ahead
Trends And Opportunities
Convenience Out Front
Bigger, Bolder Tastes
Appealing Across The Generations
The Comfort Food Angle
Technological Inroads Extend Shelf Life
Major Packaged Brands Hit The Streets

Appendix: Addresses Of Selected Marketers