• Introduction
  • Market Definition
  • “Natural” vs. “Organic”
  • Formulation and Positioning Both Determine Brand Inclusion
  • Other Terms Clarified
  • Cosmeceutical
  • Direct
  • Ethnic
  • HBC
  • Hydrosol
  • Market/Category/Segment
  • Mass Retail Channel
  • Prestige
  • SKU
  • Specialty
  • Supermarket
  • Methodology
  
  
• The Products
  • Four Categories: Skincare, Haircare, Oral Care, Color Cosmetics
  • Skincare
  • Haircare
  • Oral Care
  • Color Cosmetics
  • Typical Ingredients
  • Cosmeceutical Functions: Health = Beauty
  • Four Controversial Ingredients
  • Fluoride
  • Parabens
  • Propylene Glycol
  • SLFs
  
  
• Regulation
  • Still No Standards in Effect for Natural/Organic Personal Care
  • ...But a Draft of Standards Is Due from NSF International
  • The Bits of Regulation That Remain in Force
  
  
• Market Size and Growth
  • Natural/Organic Personal Care Rockets to $6 Billion in 2006
  • Table 1-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, by Category, 2002-2006* (Dollars in Millions)
  • Societal, Retail-level and Green Developments Powered Growth
  • Category Size and Growth
  • Natural Skincare in Double-Digit Glide to $3.6 Billion
  • Natural Haircare Charges to $1.3 Billion
  • Natural Oral Care Races to $821 Million
  • Natural Color Cosmetics Blooms to $341 Million
  • Including Aveeno and Neutrogena Expands Market to Nearly $7 Billion
  • Table 1-5 U.S. Retail Dolar Sales of Johnson & Johnson's Aveeno and Neutrogena Brands Through Mass-Retail Channels (Supermarkets, Chain Drugstores, Mass Merchandisers), by Category, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Millions)
  • Context: Relation to U.S. Natural/Organic Food Market
  
  
• Market Share
  • Natural/Organic vs. Overall HBC Sales
  • Organic Formulations Account for Just 6% of Natural/Organic HBC
  • Natural Skincare Category Holds Commanding Share of Sales
  • Table 1-2 Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, by Category, 2002-2006
  • Retail Channel Sales Shifts Gain Momentum
  • Natural Food/HBC Channel Still Rules Market, But…
  • Mass Builds Share Very, Very Gradually
  • …While Direct Takes Off
  • Table 1-3 Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of All Natural Personal Care Products, by Retail Channel, 2006 (Dollars in Millions)
  • Natural HBC’s Presence in Mass Still Tiny
  • Table 1-4 Natural Personal Care Products' Share of U.S. Mass-Channel* Retail Dollar Sales of All Personal Care Products (Natural and Non-Natural), by Category, 2002-2006(Dollars in Thousands)
  
  
• Factors in Future Growth
  • All Population Sectors Take Interest in Natural HBC
  • Boomers Taught Us to Care
  • Gen X Preaches Natural/Organic to Its Grandkids
  • Gen Y (Millennials) Harder to Hook Up
  • Kids Under 7 Especially Targetable Now
  • Table 1-6 Projected U.S. Population, by Age Bracket, 2006-2020*(In Thousands)
  • Natural Channel Infrastructure More Solid Than Ever
  • Tempering a Purist Approach with Non-natural Purchases
  • Growth Outside of Traditional Natural Channel
  • The Big Blur: Natural, Mass HBC to Increase Overlap—At Snail’s Pace!
  • Natural HBC Extending Into Prestige Realm
  • Direct Sneaks Up On Everybody
  • Fear of Cancer
  • Natural/Organic’s Relation to the Green Movement, Sustainability, Fair Trade, Animal-free Testing…
  • Connecting the Dots for the Consumer
  
  
• Projected Market Sales
  • Natural/Organic HBC, the Raging Bull, to Hit $10 Billion in 2012
  • Natural Skincare Seen in Leap to $5.6 Billion
  • Natural Haircare to Blow Past $2 Billion Mark
  • Natural Oral Care Wave to Hit $1.6 Billion
  • Natural Makeup to Rush Toward $700 Million Mark
  • Table 1-7 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, by Category, 2004-2010 (Dollars in Millions)
  • A Rosier Outlook Than Anticipated
  
  
• The Competitive Situation
  • L’Oreal and Estée Lauder Are Top Natural HBC Marketers
  • Hain Celestial and Burt’s Bees Are Leading Natural Specialists
  • Table 1-8 Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products Through All Outlets, by Top 30 Marketers, 2006(Dollars in Millions)
  
  
• Product Trends
  • Natural Skincare
  • Pomegranate and Other Food Ingredients Popular
  • Prestige-Appropriate Price Tags
  • Natural Haircare
  • Botanicals Forever
  • Reformulations of Mainstream Brands
  • Probiotics for the Hair
  • Natural Oral Care
  • Ongoing Use of Botanicals in Natural Oral Care Products
  • Whitening Functions
  • Both Fluoride and Non-fluoride Products
  • Natural Color Cosmetics
  • Exotic Ingredients and Cosmeceutical Value
  • Balms Become Glosses Become Lipsticks
  • Shimmers
  • Promo/Seasonal Makeup Lines
  
  
• Consumer Advertising
  • Natural Personal Care Marketers Spend Nearly $13 Million in 2006
  • Skincare Category Accounts for Over Half of Expenditure
  • Magazines the Preferred Medium
  • Five Million-Dollar Advertisers
  • Retail Dynamics Mandate New Positionings
  
  
• Distribution and Retail
  • Most Natural HBC Moves Through Distributors
  • Still at Least 25,000 Stores in Natural Food/HBC Channel
  • Fine-targeting Coupons to Individual Consumers
  
  
• The Eco-Shopper Consumer
  • One in Four Adults Is an Eco-Shopper
  • Women, Seniors, Low Incomes Mark Pool of Eco-Shoppers
  • Table 1-9 Demographic Characteristics of the Packaged Facts/Simmons Eco-Shopper,* 2006 (Adults in Thousands)

Chapter 2 Trends and Opportunities

• Trends and Opportunities
  • Even More Optimism for Natural HBC Than in Previous Editions
  • We Now Know: All Ages, Incomes Targetable
  • The Big Blur
  • Big Blur I: Natural HBC’s Crossover to Mass Still a Micro Movement
  • Big Blur II: Natural HBC Marketers Retool
  • Be Sure That Your Natural HBC Works on Humans…
  • Connecting “Natural/Organic” to “Green” or “Fair Trade”
  • To Get Beyond Natural Channel, Advertise and Promote to Consumers
  • Nail the Sometime Splurgers and the Product Evaluators
  • License, License, License; Endorse, Endorse, Endorse
  • Imagine: All-Natural Prada Toothpaste
  • For Kids’ Sake, License!
  • Regulate to End Confusion

Chapter 3 Natural Skincare Products

• The Products
  • Healthy Skin Is Beautiful Skin
  • Natural Skincare Category Has Six Segments
  • Face and Body
  • Deodorants
  • Soaps
  • Bath Products
  • Shaving Products
  • Fragrances
  • Skincare Needs of Ethnic Groups
  • Skincare for Teens/Tweens/Babies
  • Products Universally Positioned on Conditions/Concerns
  
  
• Category Size and Growth
  • Natural Skincare in Double-Digit Glide to $3.6 Billion in 2002-2006
  • Table 3-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Skincare Products, 2002-2006 ($ in Millions)*
  • Natural Food/HBC Channel Still Dominates
  • Natural Skincare’s Potential in Mass Is far From Realized
  • Table 3-2 Natural Skincare Products' Share of U.S. Mass-Channel* Retail Dollar Sales of All Skincare Products (Natural and Non-Natural), by Segment, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Thousands)
  • The Perspective with Sales of J & J Brands Restored
  
  
• Factors in Future Growth
  • Growth Shaped by Same Factors as in Overall Natural HBC Market
  • Aging Boomers—and Fresh-Faced Teens—Fight Wrinkles
  • Natural Skincare Influenced by Prestige Channel
  • Stress Relief Positioning
  • What If the Majors Get Involved More Heavily?
  
  
• Projected Sales
  • Natural Skincare Seen in Leap to $5.6 Billion by 2012
  • Table 3-3 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Skincare Products, 2006-2012 (Dollars in Millions)
  
  
• The Marketers
  • Among 1,000 Natural Skincare Marketers, 100 Notables
  • Most Players Are Privately Held Specialists
  • A Few Operate Only Outside of Natural Food/HBC Channel
  • Table of Marketers and Brands
  • Table 3-4 Leading Marketers of Natural Skincare Products, and Their Representative Brands
  
  
• Natural Skincare Product Trends
  • Wave of 800 New Natural Skincare SKUs in 2006
  • Table 3-5 Numbers of New Natural or Organic Skincare Products, by Product Type, 2002-2006
  • Pomegranate and Other Food Ingredients Popular
  • Prestige-Appropriate Price Tags
  • Table 3-6 Selected New Introductions of Natural or Organic Skincare Products, 2006-2007
  
  
• Consumer Advertising and Promotions
  • Natural Skincare Advertisers Spend Over $7 Million in 2006
  • Magazines Used Almost Exclusively
  • Murad Leads Three Million-Dollar Spenders
  • Consumer Advertising Positioning
  • Power of the Skincare Beauty Shot
  • Tranquility and Balance
  • Anti-Aging Properties
  • The Advertorial/Infomercial Approach
  • It Works!
  • “Honor Your Body with Consciousness”
  • Consumer Promotions
  • Natural Skincare Promos Befit Higher Price Tiers
  • An In-Pack Sample
  • Tie-ins with Charities
  • At Sundance, Gift Baskets for Celebs

Chapter 4 Natural Haircare Products

• The Products
  • Same Four Product Segments as Mainstream, But Different
  • Emphases
  • Shampoos and Conditioners
  • Styling Products and Treatments
  • Haircare, Relaxers/Straightenders and All Other
  • Cosmeceutical Functions
  
  
• Category Size and Growth
  • Natural Haircare Charges to $1.3 Billion in 2006
  • Table 4-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Haircare Products, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Millions)
  • Natural Food/HBC Channel Remains in Control
  • Natural Haircare Presence in Mass Still Miniscule
  • Table 4-2 Natural Haircare Products' Share of U.S. Mass-Channel* Retail Dollar Sales of All Haircare Products (Natural and Non-Natural), by Segment, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Thousands)
  • If J & J Brands Were Included...
  
  
• Factors in Future Growth
  • Some Factors the Same as in Overall Natural HBC Market
  • Healthy Hair = Beautiful Hair
  • You’ll Keep It, If You Treat It Nice
  • Young Adults Blame Hair Loss on Stress, Rough Treatment
  • Rise of Pop Prestige Enables Higher Haircare Prices in Mass
  • African Americans, Other Ethnic Groups Lean Toward
  • Gentler Haircare
  • Hispanics
  • African Americans
  • Asians
  • Table 4-3 Projection of U.S. African-American, Asian, and Hispanic Populations, by Gender, 2006-2020(In Thousands)
  • Teens, Tweens Still Mostly Ignored by Natural Haircare Players
  • Natural Haircolor Niche to Grow
  
  
• Projected Sales
  • Natural Haircare to Blow Past $2 Billion Mark in 2012
  • Table 4-4 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Haircare Products, 2006-2012 (Dollars in Millions)
  
  
• The Marketers
  • Hundreds of Natural Haircare Marketers, But Few Standouts
  • Mostly Small Specialists
  • Some Marketers Prefer Life Outside the Natural Channel
  • Table of Marketers and Brands
  • Table 4-5 Leading Marketers of Natural Haircare Products, and Their Representative Brands
  
  
• Natural Haircare Product Trends
  • Haircare Marketers on a New Product Roll
  • Table 4-6 Numbers of New Natural or Organic Haircare Products, by Product Type, 2002-2006
  • Botanicals Forever
  • Reformulations of Mainstream Brands
  • Probiotics for the Hair
  • Table 4-7 Selected New Introductions of Natural or Organic Haircare Products, 2006-2007
  
  
• Consumer Advertising and Promotions
  • Natural Haircare Advertisers Spend $3 Million in 2006
  • Magazines Preferred
  • Estée Lauder the Only Million-Dollar Advertiser
  • Few Other Natural Haircare Advertisers
  • Consumer Advertising Positioning
  • Beautiful Picture, Beautiful Product
  • Organic Haircare = Luxury
  • “Honor Your [Hair] with Consciousness”
  • Shampoo to Brighten Your Hair’s Color
  • Consumer Promotions
  • For Natural Haircare, Promos Other Than Coupons
  • “Become a Friend of the Family”
  • A Twofer
  • Free Gift with Purchase

Chapter 5 Natural Oral Care Products

• The Products
  • Natural Oral Care’s Four Product Segments
  • Tooth Cleaners and Whiteners
  • Mouthwash
  • Toothbrushes and Floss
  • All Other
  • Fluoride and Foaming Agents—Are They Safe?
  
  
• Category Size and Growth
  • Natural Oral Care Races to $821 Million in 2002-2006
  • Table 5-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Oral Care Products, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Millions)
  • Natural Channel Accounts for Up to Three-Quarters of Retail
  • Mass Accounts for as Much as 10% of Category Dollars
  • Yet Natural Oral Care Is Barely Noticeable in Mass
  • Table 5-2 Natural Oral Care Products' Share of U.S. Mass-Channel* Retail Dollar Sales of All Oral Care Products (Natural and Non-Natural), by Segment, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Thousands)
  
  
• Factors in Future Growth
  • Overall Natural HBC Market Factors Mirrored in Oral Care
  • Middle-aged Population Occupied with Oral Health
  • Natural Oral Care an Answer to Mainstream’s “Innovation Fatigue”
  • “Natural” Becomes “Semi-Natural”
  • Believe It: Whiteners Won’t Be Drivers for Long
  • Natural Oral Care to Build Presence in Prestige
  • Kids’ Natural Oral Care Cries Out for Licenses
  
  
• Projected Sales
  • Natural Oral Care Wave to Hit $1.6 Billion in 2012
  • Table 5-3 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Oral Care Products, 2006-2012 (Dollars in Millions)
  
  
• The Marketers
  • Hundreds of Natural Oral Care Players, But Few Notables
  • Most Players Are Natural HBC Specialists, Not Drug Companies
  • Table of Marketers and Brands
  • Table 5-4 Leading Marketers of Natural Oral Care Products, and Their Representative Brands
  
  
• Natural Oral Care Product Trends
  • Ongoing Use of Botanicals in Natural Oral Care Products
  • Whitening Functions
  • Both Fluoride and Non-fluoride Products
  • Table 5-5 Selected New Introductions of Natural or Organic Oral Care Products, 2006-2007
  
  
• Consumer Advertising and Promotions
  • Almost No Natural Oral Care Media Buys in 2006
  • Tom’s of Maine a Minor Spender
  • Consumer Advertising Positioning
  • Health for Your Whole Mouth
  • Three TV Spots Address Ethical Issues
  • An Enviro-kind Toothbrush
  • Consumer Promotions
  • Couponing Still Rare in Natural Oral Care Category
  • Philanthropy
  • A Contest

Chapter 6 Natural Color Cosmetics Products

• The Products
  • As in Mainstream, Four Segments Are Face, Eye, Lip, Nail
  • Facial Makeup
  • Eye Makeup
  • Lip Color
  • Nail Polishs
  
  
• Category Size and Growth
• Natural Makeup Blooms to $341 Million in 2006
• Table 6-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Color Cosmetics, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Millions)
• Natural Food/HBC Channel Still Commands Natural Makeup Category
• Mass Accounts for Just 1% or 2% of Natural Makeup Sales
• …While Natural’s Share of Makeup Sales in Mass Is Still Negligible
• Table 6-2 Natural Color Cosmetics' Share of U.S. Mass-Channel* Retail Dollar Sales of All Color Cosmetics (Natural and Non-Natural), by Segment, 2002-2006 (Dollars in Thousands)
• If Sales of J & J Brands Are Added Back In...