Foodservice Lunch Trends in the U.S. : Packaged Facts

Foodservice Lunch Trends in the U.S.

Oct 1, 2010
145 Pages - Pub ID: LA2756365

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Abstract

Table of Contents

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Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Scope and Methodology: Scope; Methodology
Macroeconomic Analysis: Fast Facts
Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker: Fast Facts
Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis: Fast Facts
Lunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies: Fast Facts
Lunch Restaurant Selection Analysis: Fast Facts
Lunch Menu Selection Analysis: Fast facts
Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown
Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Trendsetters: Chipotle Mexican Grill; Panera Bread; Freshii
Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis
Restaurant sales rally fizzles; long slog ahead
Restaurant industry sales dip in June; future weakness likely
Spending upturn hinges on consumers with strong balance sheets: Upturn to benefit casual restaurants at expense of family and fast food/QSR players; Non-discretionary spending a recession rule; But affluent may help drive growth in discretionary spend
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Gloomy Near-Term Outlook
In-home breakfast and dinner trend remains significant
Bagging lunch takes a bite out of restaurant sales?
Graph 2-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View: Looking ahead: Saving & grocery spending trumps limited service and full-service restaurant spend
Graph 2-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View: February to June food services & drinking places monthly sales sequentially improve; Full-service restaurants get needed shot in the arm; shift momentum away from grocery
Graph 2-3: Monthly Sales, 12-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010: But month-to-month spending trends suggest restaurant and food retail pullback
Graph 2-4: Monthly Sales, Month-to-Month % Change, Grocery Stores & Food Services & Drinking Places, Full-Service Restaurants and Limited-Service Eating Places, 2009-2010
Restaurant Performance Index contracts for second straight month
Graph 2-5: Restaurant Performance Index, Monthly Metrics, 2006-2010
Macroeconomic factors shaping restaurant sales
Consumer confidence? No, not really: Present Situation Index decreases as perceptions of job prospects continue to darken; Expectations Index weighed down by dimmer outlook on job prospects
Unemploymentrate stagnates: Some perspective:
Graph 2-6: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010
By demographic, unemployment rates settle into troughs: Disparity in unemployment rates by education level; Young adults, minorities and men also find harder going
Graph 2-7: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010
Graph 2-8: Unemployment Rate, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007-2010
How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad?: Households continue to repair their balance sheets
Graph 2-9: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010
Graph 2-10: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010
Unemployment and GPD forecast: expect recovery to take several years: Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slowrebound in consumer spending
Graph 2-11: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-12
Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels a long way off: Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 high
Graph 2-12: Household Net Worth, 2005-10: Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism; Q2 2010 summary equities analysis
Graph 2-13: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index: 2007-2010
Food at home maintains pricing edge
Graph 2-14: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
Graph 2-15: CPI: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2010
Food inflation forecast remains muted: CPI forecast for food at home and food away from home
Commodities pricing analysis: Intermediate foods and feeds index dips during Q1 2010; Prepared animal feed prices lead decline; Dairy product index falls after Q4 2009 hike; Finished consumer foods rise; Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs rise tapers from Q4 2009 pop
Chapter 3: Restaurant Usage & Outlook Tracker
Note on reading charts
Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: at-home food spend trumps out-of-home spend: February 2010 trend continues in June 2010
Taking a bite from lunch
Graph 3-1: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Top Line View: Looking ahead: Consumers more likely to save & spend on groceries than spend at restaurants
Graph 3-2: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Top Line View: Planned spending on fast food appears grim
Graph 3-3: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Fast Food Restaurant Spending: Intended full-service spend lacks promise
Graph 3-4: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service Restaurant Spending
Intention to save money remains high
Graph 3-5: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Saving Money
Lunch restaurant goers intend to spend more at restaurants: Intended spend more likely among smoothie shop, fine dining and coffeehouse lunch goers
Graph 3-6: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior: Full-Service and Limited-Service Spending, Restaurant Lunch Users
Restaurant usage and usage frequency
Overview: February 2010 to June 2010 mean use comparison
Graph 3-7: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
Graph 3-8: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010
18-34s continue to drive guest counts
Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age: 18-34s exhibit higher usage; Key smoothie shop and street stand users
Graph 3-10: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Age
HH income: fast food enjoys egalitarian status
Graph 4-6: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,
by HH Income
Graph 3-12: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by HH Income
Employment status: having a job pays the bills but also fits restaurant lifestyle
Graph 3-13: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010,
by Employment Status: Full-time workers and students also compare favorably regarding overall usage
Graph 3-14: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, 2010, by Employment Status
Restaurant lunch use
Lunch day part accounts for about one-third of all usage
Graph 3-15: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, 2010
Fast food dominates lunch
Graph 3-16: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010: Gender: men + grab-and-go
Graph 3-17: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Gender: Age: mobile lifestyles speak volumes
Graph 3-18: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Age: HH income: it’s all about disposable income
Graph 3-19: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by HH Income: Employment status a driving factor; Students at the grocery store?
Graph 3-20: Restaurant Usage in Last Month for Lunch, 2010, by Employment Status
Appendix: Consumer Survey
Chapter 4: Share of Stomach: Lunch Sales Analysis
Market size and overview: Declining sales amidst a very touch climate; Near-term challenges
Lunch daypart sales peak in 2008, dip in 2009 and 2010
Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, 2005-2011
Graph 4-1: Lunch sales: limited-service and full-service restaurants, % growth, 2005-2011: Terminology and sourcing note
Lunch comprises 12% of HH food spend
Graph 4-2: Food at Home versus Food Away from Home Daypart Spend
Fast food has 50% share of lunch daypart sales
Graph 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias
Consumer food expenditure trends suggest migration to food at home spend
Table 4-1: Consumer Food Expenditures, 2005-08
Lunch share of restaurant spend consistent during 2005-08
Table 4-2: Meals Away From Home Expenditures, by Daypart, 2005-08
Lunch takes only a 1.2% bite out of pre-tax income
Table 4-3: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines Cafeteria Spend, 2005-08
Graph 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines & Cafeterias, 2005-08
Lunch expenditures highest in south: Northeast consumer units spend least on percentage basis
Table 4-4: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Region
On a per dollar basis, youth drives lunch spend: 56% of 65+ lunch dollars go to full-service establishments
Table 4-5: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Age
Higher income = higher absolute lunch spend, but lower percentage of income
Table 4-6: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Income
Lunch share of wallet highest among Hispanics
Table 4-7: Lunch Expenditures: Selected Metrics & Fast Food, Full-Service, Vending Machines and Cafeteria Spend, by Race/Ethnicity
Guest Traffic Analysis
Frequency counts: definition
1 in 20 McDonald’s monthly users goes 14 or more times per month!
Guest traffic rises most at Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill
Table 4-8: Guest Traffic: Limited-Service Restaurants, Selected Lunch Players, 2008-10
Daypart meal spend analysis
Breakfast meal spend approaches that for lunch at fast food and family restaurants
Graph 4-5: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend, by Daypart and Restaurant Type, 2010
Lunch meal spend by restaurant type reveals significant differences
Graph 4-6: Lunch Meal Spend, Fast Food Versus Family Restaurants, Selected Demographics
Fast food daypart spending reveals differences among married and older users
Table 4-9: Meal Spend by Daypart, Fast Food Restaurants, Selected Demographics
Chapter 5: Lunch Trends, Innovations & Strategies
Discounting and bundling
Extreme affordability weighs down fast food/QSR
Everyday value strategies add wrinkle to family dining segment
Full-service value menus
Lunchtime LTO meal bundling trends: Fast food/QSR; Fast casual; Family & casual dining restaurants
Health on menu: Choosing more healthful options away from home on the rise
What does “healthy” mean to consumers?
Table 5-1: Restaurant Health Attitudes, 2010
Table 5-2: Consumers’ Associations with “Healthy,” 2010: Challenging perceptions that healthy food is more expensive
Chapter 6: Lunch Restaurant Selection Analysis
Note on reading charts
Lunch restaurant selection influencers
Overview
Graph 6-1: Lunch Restaurant Selection Influencers, 2010
Lunch restaurant selection: convenience influencers: Gender shapes routine
Graph 6-2: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Gender, 2010: Age-driven lifestyle needs influence lunch restaurant selection
Graph 6-3: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Age, 2010: HH income shapes importance of work proximity
Graph 6-4: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by HH Income, 2010: Employment status: work implies less mobility, more routine
Graph 6-5: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010: Urban, suburban, or rural location affect proximity and routine
Graph 6-6: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Convenience Influencers, Urban, Suburban, Rural, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch menu item influencers: Portion control for cost and for calories entices women
Graph 6-7: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Gender, 2010: Portion control for cost savings a cue for 18-24s
Graph 6-8: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Age, 2010: Healthy menu items an egalitarian influence
Graph 6-9: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by HH Income, 2010: Students swayed by a plethora of menu items; retires another matter
Graph 6-10: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Menu Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch cost threshold influencers: Meal deal? At lower price points, women lunch goers just a tad more interested
Graph 6-11: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Gender, 2010: Younger people: meal deal, please!
Graph 6-12: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Age, 2010: HH income: don’t underestimate interest in meal deals across the board
Graph 6-13: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by HH Income, 2010: Employment status: students seeking deals
Graph 6-14: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Cost Threshold Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch dine-in partner influencers: Age: friends, family, or alone?
Graph 6-15: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Dine-in Partner Influencers, by Age, 2010
Restaurant selection: lunch takeout partner influencers: Save me some money on tip and drinks?
Graph 6-16: Restaurant Selection: Lunch Takeout Partner Influencers, by Income, 2010
Chapter 7: Lunch Menu Selection Analysis
Note on reading charts
Lunch menu selection influencers
Overview
Graph 7-1: Menu Selection Influencers, Lunch Daypart, 2010: Health and bundles skew the age spectrum
Graph 7-2: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Age, 2010: HH income: seasonal and healthful items versus bundled items
Graph 7-3: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by HH Income, 2010
Employment status: students love a good bundle: Graph 7-4: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Employment Status, 2010
Urban, suburban, or rural location: here’s to urban health
Graph 7-5: Lunch Menu Selection Influencers, by Rural/Urban/Suburban, 2010
Chapter 8: Budgeters and Healthy Eaters: Usage, Attitudes and Behavior Drilldrown
Meet the Psychographic Groups
Some men really do like to eat healthy: how can operators connect with them?: Budgeters drawn by cost, naturally, but by other factors, too; Portion size provides double-sided menu connection with male Healthy Eaters; Meal pricing thresholds provide opportunity to connect with male Healthy Eaters
Table 8-1: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Psychographic Groups, by Gender
Income splits reveal some lunch surprises: Difference and customization more of a factor among <$50K Healthy Eaters; Promotions and bundles incent wider swath of lower-HH income Budgeters
Table 8-2: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by HH Income
Youth drives interest among both Budgeters and Healthy Eaters
Table 8-3: Selected Lunch Restaurant Selection Factors, Budgeters & Healthy Eaters, by Age
Chapter 9: Restaurant Lunch Dining Partner Analysis
Fast food lunch usage leads all dayparts
Table 9-1: Fast Food Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch usage lags dinner daypart
Table 9-2: Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Daypart, Selected Demographics, 2010
Fast food lunch dining partners differ according to demographic
Table 9-3: Lunch Fast Food Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010
Family restaurant & steakhouse lunch: more of an adult thing
Table 9-4: Lunch Family Restaurant & Steakhouse Usage, by Dining Partner, Selected Demographics, 2010
Chapter 10: Lunch on the Menu: Restaurant Brand Analysis
Note on food lifestyle segmentation charts and demographics
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Competitive positioning: Customization; Food with Integrity: Marketing that backs Food with Integrity
2010 strategy: On the menu; Restaurant expansion plans: digging deeper where presence is already established; Loyalty program to target “evangelical, super-passionate regular customers”
Chipotle Mexican Grill: selected demographics: A 10 million-strong consumer universe; Strong income and gender skew
Table 10-1: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Selected Demographics
Food Lifestyle Segmentation: Variety on a Budget& True Foodies
Graph 10-1: Chipotle Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Chipotle Mexican Grill users: gourmets, meet practicality
Table 10-2: Chipotle Mexican Grill Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
Chipotle by the numbers
Table 10-3: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Selected Metrics, 2007-09: Q2 2010 sales driven by increased visits; Outlook
Table 10-4: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Quarterly Sales Metrics, 2009-10
Panera Bread: 2009-2010 lunch strategy has positive momentum; Trading up; “You Pick”!; Owning the menu category; Next up: Paninis; Catering: going after the big fish; Loyalty programcoming to a Panera near you; A toe in the licensing water
Panera Bread: selected demographics: A 16.4 million universe; Strong income and gender skew
Table 10-5: Panera Bread Users: Selected Demographics
Panera Bread Food Lifestyle Segmentation: Variety on a Budgetand True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequency
Graph 10-2: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Analysis, Food Lifestyle Segmentation
Panera Bread users: food, health and diet attitudes: A more health-conscious bunch with a touch of food guilt
Table 10-6: Panera Bread Users: Food, Health and Diet Attitudes
Sales trending upward
Table 10-7: Panera Bread, Selected Metrics, 2007-09: Q2 2010 same-store sales jump almost 10%; Shift in menu mix suggests movement toward higher-priced items
Table 10-8: Panera Bread, Quarterly Sales Metrics, Q2 2009 & Q2 2010
Freshii—the new name in healthful fare
The Freshii store and menu
Fast and convenient
Health placed front and center: Calories and other health information updated in real time
A Freshii view of customization: Technology savvy; Green initiatives
Appendix on food lifestyle segmentation charts

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