Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S.
Aug 1, 2010
162 Pages - Pub ID: LA2594746
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Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Introduction
Scope of Report
Report Methodology
Market Size and Growth
Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
Figure 1-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent)
Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
Retailing Trends
Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
Figure 1-2: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
Supermarkets
Mass Merchandisers
Natural Food Stores
Warehouse Stores
Baking & Marketing Trends
Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
Healthier Fare
Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
Whole Grains for Health
Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
Natural and Organic Products
Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”
Affordable Luxuries
Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
Flavor Adventure
Foodservice Trends
Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal
Consumer Trends
Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
Figure 1-3: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster


Chapter 2: Market Trends
Introduction
Scope of Report
Excluded Products
Report Methodology
Market Size and Growth
Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession
Table 2-1: Total U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Baked Goods, 2005-2009 (in millions of dollars)
Table 2-2: In-Store Service Bakery Annual Sales, 2000-2010 (in billions of dollars)
Table 2-3: SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods, 2008 vs. 2009 (in millions of dollars)
Market Composition
Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues
Figure 2-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent)
Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share
Packaged Products Break Out Differently
Figure 2-2: Share of In-Store Bakery Department Dollar Sales by Product Classification, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)
Table 2-4: Share of SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods by Category and Segment, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent)
Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries
Table 2-5: Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries, May/June 2010 (percent)
Cakes and Cupcakes
Figure 2-3: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Cake, 2009 (percent)
Retailer Perspective: United Supermarkets
Cookies
Pies
Baker’s Perspective: Rocky Mountain Pies
Other Desserts
Breads
Figure 2-4: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Bread, 2009 (percent)
Table 2-6: Percentage of Consumers Purchasing Fresh Baked Bread by Type: May/June 2010
Artisan Breads
Rolls
Figure 2-5: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Rolls, 2009 (percent)
Doughnuts
Figure 2-6: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Doughnuts, 2009 (percent)
Sweet Goods
Figure 2-7: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Sweet Goods, 2009 (percent)
Muffins
Figure 2-8: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Muffins, 2009 (percent)
Bagels
Market Outlook
Economy Slowly Improving
Table 2-7: Economy-Influenced Spending by U.S. Consumers: Less in General vs. Less on Groceries, May/June 2010 (percent)
Table 2-8: Agreement with Statement, “Compared to 3 Months Ago, How Much Are You Doing Any of the Following Right Now?”, May/June 2010 (percent)
Fresh Baked Goods: An Affordable Luxury
Figure 2-9: Changes in Consumer Bakery Buying Habits, 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-10: Bakery Items Consumers Purchase Less Frequently, 2009 (percent)
Eat-At-Home Movement Benefits Fresh Baked Goods Market
Eating Healthy
Table 2-9: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Table 2-10: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Sales Gains on Dietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Heart-Healthy Grains
Gluten-Free and Other Allergy Concerns
Portion Control and Convenience
Natural and Organic
“Clean Label” Foods
Baking—Naturally
Environmental Concerns
Impact of Healthcare Reform
Figure 2-11: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “Which Topic Will Be Most Important to Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-12: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “What Do You Think Consumers Will Be Looking for in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-13: Retailer Survey: “Which Topic Will Have the Greatest Impact on Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Figure 2-14: Retailer Survey: “What Initiatives Are Your Company Most Likely to Focus on in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
Food and Beverage Industry Reacts
Food Safety Legislation
Baked Goods Sales Through 2014
Table 2-11: Projected U.S. Sales of Baked Goods Through Retail Channels, 2009-2014 (in millions of dollars)


Chapter 3: Retail Trends
Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries
Figure 3-1: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Figure 3-2: Fresh Sweet Baked Goods: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Figure 3-3: In-Store Bakery: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent)
Table 3-1: In-Store Service Bakery Percent of Total Store Sales, 2000-2010 (percent)
Table 3-2: Number of In-Store Service Bakeries 2000-2010
Preparation Methods
Table 3-3: How In-Store Service Bakeries Prepare Products, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)
Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments
Table 3-4: Problems Facing Bakery Departments, 2009 vs. 2010
Supermarkets
Illustration 3-1: Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses—Fresh Baked Cakes and Pies Featuring Local Strawberries
Illustration 3-2: Fresh Baked Cake and Pie Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses Featuring “Remarkable Buys!”
Mass Merchandisers
Illustration 3-3: In-Store Bakery Display in Walmart Featuring “Unbeatable Prices”
Illustration 3-4: In-Store Bakery Department Self-Serve Pastry Case in Walmart
Illustration 3-5: In-Store Bakery Department in Walmart—Location and Banners
Natural Food Stores
Illustration 3-6: In-Store Bakery Department in Whole Foods—Gourmet Pastry Case
Warehouse Stores
Illustration 3-7: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Cup Cakes and Sheet Cakes
Illustration 3-8: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Table Displays
Wholesale and Retail Bakeries
Wholesalers Ramp Up Production
Retail Bakeries Expand Nationwide, Internationally
Illustration 3-10: Façade of Newport Beach, CA’s Wonderland Bakery
Bakery Perspective: Tom Cat Bakery


Chapter 4: Baking & Marketing Trends
Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape
Healthier Fare
Table 4-1: “I Frequently Use Nutritionally Fortified Food and Beverage Products,” May/June 2010 (percent)
Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option
Illustration 4-1: Display Case of Single-Serve Desserts at Whole Foods
Whole Grains for Health
Table 4-2: Food Types People Eat to Ensure That Their Diet Is Healthy, 2010 (percent)
Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
Retailer Perspective: Whole Foods
Illustration 4-2: Whole Foods Gluten Free Bakehouse Label
Sugar-Free Options Still Popular
Olive Oil as Ingredient
Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam
Natural and Organic Products
Table 4-3: Purchasing of Natural/Organic Food Products by Type, July 2009-March 2010 (percent of U.S. households)
Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local”
Affordable Luxuries
Table 4-4: Consumer Purchasing Habits: Gourmet Products, May/June 2010 (percent)
Artisan and Small-Batch Goods
Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods
Whoopie Pies
Caramelized Flavors
Flavor Adventure
Retailer Profile: Sucré
Illustration 4-3: Gift Box of Macaroons from New Orleans’ Sucré Sweet Shop
Bacon…and Cupcakes?


Chapter 5: Foodservice Trends
Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity
Table 5-1: Top 20 Largest Foodservice Bakery Operations by Number of Outlets, 2009 (in millions of dollars)
Table 5-2: Household Usage Rates for Leading Doughnut and Bakery Chains, 2009/10 (percent and number in millions of U.S. households)
Smaller Foodservice Bakery Cafés Find Success
Panera Bread Co
Table 5-3: Demographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)
Table 5-4: Psychographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)
[Illustration 5-1]: Donation Bin for Panera’s Nonprofit Store Concept
Coffeehouses Increase Profits with Baked Goods
Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal


Chapter 6: Consumer Trends
Note on Experian Simmons Survey Data
Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum
Table 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-2: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Figure 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-3: Household Penetration Rates by Types of Bread Used and Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Remix Rather Than Revolution in Bread Preferences
Table 6-4: Household Usage Rates By Types of Bread Used, Used Most Often, and Also Used: 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Whole Grain vs. White Bread Psychographics
Table 6-5: Psychographic Patterns by Types of Bread Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2009 (percent and index)
Psychographics for Individual Types of Bread
Table 6-6: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Work at Eating a Well-Balanced Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-7: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Include Plenty of Fiber in My Diet,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-8: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Usually Only Snack on Healthy Foods,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-9: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “When I Shop for Foods, I Look for Organic/Natural Products,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-10: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Eat Gourmet Food Whenever I Can,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-11: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Look for the Freshest Ingredients When I Cook,” 2009 (percent and index)
Table 6-12: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Don’t Have Time to Prepare or Eat Healthy Meals,” 2009 (percent and index)
Demographics for Individual Types of Bread
Table 6-13: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Gender, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-14: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Adult Age Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-15: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Race/Ethnicity, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-16: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Geographic Region, 2009 (U.S. households)
Table 6-17: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Household Income Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households)
Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity
Table 6-18: Household Usage Rates for Selected Specialty Breads, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)
Table 6-19: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Fresh Bagels Gain at Frozen’s Expense
Table 6-20: Household Usage Rates for Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households)
Fresh vs. Frozen Bagel Psychographics
Table 6-21: Psychographic Patterns for Use of Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2009 (percent and index)
Demographics for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels
Table 6-22: Purchasing Indices for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels: By Selected Demographic Traits, 2009 (U.S. households)
Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster
Table 6-23: Household Usage Rates for Selected Packaged Breakfast Pastries, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)
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