The Market for Prepared Frozen Foods

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This report analyzes the dynamic $10-billion U.S. market for prepared frozen foods. Covered are seven key product categories: dinners and entrees, pizza, baked goods, breakfast foods, handheld entrees, appetizers and snacks, and side dishes and value-added vegetables. The report examines market composition, marketer and brand share, distribution and retail trends, consumer demographics, and the factors affecting market growth, providing sales projections through 2003. An analysis of the competitive situation features profiles of leading players, including ConAgra, Kraft Foods, Nestle , Sara Lee, and Vlasic Foods. From Packaged Facts. Individual sections are available.
I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Products

  • Market Definition
  • Seven Product Categories
  • Category Definitions Blurring

The Market

  • Market Size and Growth
  • Table 1-1: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales by Product Category, 1994-2003 (dollars): 7 Product Categories
  • Factors Affecting Market Growth
  • Market to Top $133 Billion by 2003
  • Market Composition by Product Category
  • Figure 1-1: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Sales by Product Category, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 7 Product Categories

The Marketers

  • Major Marketers
  • The Competitive Situation
  • Industry Trends
  • Marketers Spend $237 Million on Advertising

Distribution and Retail

  • At the Distribution Level
  • Supermarkets Dominate Sales
  • Freezer Space and Slotting Fees

The Consumer

  • The Consumer
  • 44% of Principal Shoppers Buy Frozen Dinners
  • Frozen Entree Users
  • Pizza the Most Widely Used Prepared Frozen Food
  • Frozen Pies/Cakes/Pastries
  • Frozen Waffles/Pancakes/French Toast
  • Frozen Breakfast Entrees
  • Frozen Appetizers and Snacks

Scope and Methodology

  • Scope of Market
  • Report Methodology

II THE PRODUCTS

Scope of Report

  • Market Definition
  • Focus on Products Sold Through Supermarkets
  • Background of Frozen Foods
  • How Foods Are Frozen

Product Categories

  • Seven Product Categories
  • Category Definitions Blurring

Labeling Requirements

  • Three Regulatory Agencies
  • The FDA
  • The USDA
  • Food Labeling Basics
  • Nutrition Labeling
  • Exemptions to Nutrition Labeling
  • Marketing Claims
  • Table 2-1: Allowable Food Claims
  • Exceptions for Main Dishes and Meals
  • Allowable Health Claims

III THE MARKET

  • Figure 3-1: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Overall Market, 1994-1998 (dollars)

Market Size and Growth

  • Methodology for Estimates
  • Retail Sales Top $10 Billion in 1998
  • Table 3-1: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Overall Market, 1994-1998 (dollars)
  • Frozen Dinners and Entrees Leap to $44 Billion
  • Table 3-1a: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Dinners and Entrees, 1994-1998 (dollars)
  • Frozen Pizza Continues March to $21 Billion
  • Table 3-1b: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Pizza, 1994-1998 (dollars)
  • Frozen Baked Goods Stagnate at $11 Billion
  • Table 3-1c: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Baked Goods, 1994-1998 (dollars)
  • Frozen Breakfast Foods Top $885 Million
  • Frozen Hand-Held Entrees Jump to $813 Million
  • Table 3-1d: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Breakfast Foods, 1994-1998 (dollars)
  • Table 3-1e: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Hand-Held Entrees, 1994-1998 (dollars)
  • Frozen Appetizers and Snacks Advance Rapidly to $411 Million
  • Table 3-1f: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Appetizers and Snacks, 1994-1998 (dollars)
  • Frozen Side Dishes and Value-Added Vegetables Shrink to $365 Million
  • Table 3-1g: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Estimated Retail Sales of Side Dishes and Value-Added Vegetables, 1994-1998 (dollars)

Market Composition

  • Dinners and Entrees Account for 44% of Dollar Sales
  • Table 3-2: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Share of Sales by Product Category, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 7 Product Categories
  • Cakes the Largest Segment of Frozen Baked Goods
  • Waffles Account for 65% of Frozen Breakfast Foods
  • Prepared Frozen Foods Sold in Wide Range of Channels
  • Supermarkets the Dominant Retail Outlet
  • Table 3-3a: Share of US Dollar Sales of Prepared Frozen Foods by Distribution Channel and Product Category, 1996 (percent): 7 Channels
  • Table 3-3b: Share of US Dollar Sales of Prepared Frozen Foods by Distribution Channel and Product Category, 1996 (percent): 7 Channels
  • Regional Differences
  • Consumers in East Central Region Most Likely to Use Frozen Dinners and Entrees
  • Table 3-4a: Use of Frozen Dinners and Entrees by Region, 1998 (percent and index): 6 Regions
  • Consumers in West Central Region Most Likely to Use Frozen Pizza
  • Table 3-4b: Use of Frozen Pizza and Appetizers/Snacks by Region, 1998 (percent and index): 6 Regions
  • Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Show Regional Skews
  • Table 3-4c: Use of Frozen Pies, Cakes, and Pastries by Region, 1998 (percent and index): 6 Regions
  • Northeasterners Most Likely to Use Frozen Waffles; Southerners Indicated for Frozen Breakfast Entrees
  • Table 3-4d: Use of Frozen Breakfast Foods by Region, 1998 (percent and index): 6 Regions
  • Winter Favors Sales of Prepared Frozen Foods

Factors to Market Growth

  • Demographic, Lifestyle Trends Creating Increased Opportunities
  • Competition from Restaurant Take-Out
  • Competition from Home Meal Replacements
  • Frozen Foods Attractively Priced
  • Buy Now, Eat Later
  • Freshening Up the Frozen Image
  • Ethnic Flavors Boosting Sales
  • Tight Freezer Space a Perennial Problem
  • Aggressive Marketing
  • Product Innovation Drives Growth
  • Factors Affecting Frozen Dinners and Entrees
  • Factors Affecting Frozen Pizza
  • Factors Affecting Frozen Baked Goods
  • Factors Affecting Frozen Breakfast Foods
  • Factors Affecting Frozen Hand-Held Entrees
  • Factors Affecting Frozen Appetizers and Snacks
  • Factors Affecting Frozen Side Dishes and Value-Added Vegetables
  • Figure 3-2: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Overall Market, 1998-2003 (dollars)

Market Projections

  • Retail Sales to Top $133 Billion in 2003
  • Table 3-5: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Overall Market, 1998-2003 (dollars)
  • Frozen Dinners and Entrees Will Near $58 Billion
  • Table 3-5a: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Dinners and Entrees, 1998-2003 (dollars)
  • Frozen Pizza to Reach $30 Billion
  • Table 3-5b: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Pizza, 1998-2003 (dollars)
  • Frozen Baked Goods to Approach $13 Billion
  • Table 3-5c: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Baked Goods, 1998-2003 (dollars)
  • Frozen Breakfast Foods Top $10 Billion, But Growth Uneven
  • Table 3-5d: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Breakfast Foods, 1998-2003 (dollars)
  • Frozen Hand-Held Entrees Will Approach $13 Billion
  • Table 3-5e: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Hand-Held Entrees, 1998-2003 (dollars)
  • Frozen Appetizers and Snacks Will Grow to $662 Million
  • Table 3-5f: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Appetizers and Snacks, 1998-2003 (dollars)
  • Frozen Side Dishes and Value-Added Vegetables on Losing Streak to $322 Million
  • Table 3-5g: The US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Projected Retail Sales of Side Dishes and Value-Added Vegetables, 1998-2003 (dollars)

IV THE MARKETERS

The Marketers

  • Hundreds of Marketers
  • Market Dominated by Food Giants
  • Most Major Marketers Publicly Owned
  • Major Privately Owned Marketers
  • Significant Minor Marketers
  • Most Compete in Only a Few Product Categories
  • Many Marketers Offer Multiple Brands
  • Recent Mergers, Acquisitions, and Divestitures
  • Table 4-1: Leading Prepared Frozen Foods Marketers and Their Brands by Product Category (51 Marketers and Their Brands)

Marketer and Brand Shares

  • Data Based on Supermarket Sales
  • Nestlé Edges Out ConAgra to Lead Overall Market
  • Led by Kraft and Pillsbury, Six Marketers Comprise Second Tier
  • Six Other Marketers Claim Shares of 1% or More
  • Nestlé, ConAgra Lead Frozen Dinners and Entrees
  • Kraft Leads in Frozen Pizza
  • Frozen Baked Goods Fragmented
  • Kellogg Dominates Frozen Breakfast Foods
  • Chef America Dominates Frozen Hand-Held Entrees
  • Pillsbury and Heinz Head Frozen Appetizers and Snacks List
  • Pillsbury Leads Side Dishes and Value-Added Vegetables
  • Table 4-2: Share of US Prepared Frozen Foods Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 14 Marketers/34 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label
  • Table 4-3: Share of US Frozen Dinners and Entrees Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 9 Marketers/17 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label
  • Table 4-4: Share of US Frozen Pizza Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 8 Marketers/15 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label
  • Table 4-5: Share of US Frozen Baked Goods Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 12 Marketers/18 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label
  • Table 4-6: Share of US Breakfast Foods Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 9 Marketers/12 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label
  • Table 4-7: Share of US Frozen Hand-Held Entrees Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 12 Marketers/19 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label
  • Table 4-8: Share of US Frozen Appetizers and Snacks Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): Marketers/16 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label
  • Table 4-9: Share of US Frozen Side Dishes and Value-Added Vegetables Market by Marketer and Brand, 1997 vs 1998 (percent): 10 Marketers/17 Brands, All Other Brands, Private Label

The Competitive Situation

  • Ways to Get Ahead: Mergers, Acquisitions, and Divestitures
  • The Importance of Smaller Companies
  • Private Label

Company Profile: Aurora Foods, Inc

  • Corporate Background
  • Aunt Jemima Awakens
  • Celeste Pizza Warehouse-Delivered

Company Profile: Chef America, Inc

  • Corporate Background
  • Involvement in Frozen Foods
  • Competitive Strategies

Company Profile: ConAgra, Inc

  • Corporate Background
  • Broad Involvement in Frozen Foods
  • Healthy Choice
  • Marie Callender's
  • ConAgra Pushing Skillet Meals
  • ConAgra Repackages Ethnic Frozen Food Brands
  • ConAgra Launches Health Foods Line

Company Profile: Flowers Industries, Inc/Mrs Smith's Bakeries, Inc

  • Corporate Background
  • Mrs Smith's Bakeries
  • Stable Management
  • Operation 365
  • Leveraging the Mrs Smith's Brand Name

Company Profile: HJ Heinz Co

  • Corporate Background
  • Heinz Integrates Frozen Food Unit
  • Weight Watchers
  • Repositioning Weight Watchers
  • Budget Gourmet
  • Ore-Ida

Company Profile: Kellogg Co

  • Corporate Background
  • Eggo Waffles
  • New Value Strategy
  • Lender's Bagels
  • Kellogg to Launch Line of "Functional Foods"

Company Profile: Kraft Foods, Inc

  • Corporate Background
  • The Leader in Frozen Pizza
  • DiGiorno Rising Crust Pizza Rolled Out in 1996
  • Tombstone Updated in 1997 and 1998
  • Jack's Brand Acquired in 1992
  • California Pizza Kitchen Line in Test

Company Profile: Nestlé USA, Inc

  • Corporate Background
  • Stouffer's and Stouffer's Lean Cuisine
  • Heavy Advertising Support
  • Real Home Cooking Contest
  • Family Packs
  • Nestlé Debuts Skillet Sensations
  • Nestlé Testing Ortega

Company Profile: The Pillsbury Co

  • Corporate Background
  • Broad Frozen Foods Involvement
  • Frozen Pizza, Appetizers, and Snacks
  • Frozen Breakfast Foods and Baked Goods
  • The Jolly Green Giant

Company Profile: Sara Lee Corp

  • Corporate Background
  • Outsourcing Some Products
  • Sara Lee Bakery
  • New Twists in Cheesecake
  • Sara Lee Bagels
  • Jimmy Dean and Other Brands

Company Profile: Schwan's Sales Enterprises, Inc

  • Corporate Background
  • Number Two in Frozen Pizza
  • Schwan's Launches Freschetta
  • Other Schwan's Products and Labels

Company Profile: Vlasic Foods International, Inc

  • A Spin-Off of Campbell Soup
  • Re-Casting Swanson

Marketing Trends

  • Leveraging Brand Equity
  • Value Positioning, Premium Positioning
  • The Homestyle Theme
  • Dinners, Entrees, or Meals?

Product Trends

  • Reformulations, Improved Quality
  • Ethnic Flavors
  • Mexican Foods
  • Oriental Flavors
  • Nutraceutical Foods
  • Product Trends by Product Category: Frozen Dinners and Entrees
  • Frozen Meal Kits
  • Traditional Frozen Dinners and Entrees
  • Children's Meals
  • Product Trends by Product Category: Frozen Pizza
  • Product Trends by Product Category: Frozen Baked Goods
  • Frozen Bread and Bagels
  • Frozen Cakes, Pies, and Sweet Baked Goods
  • Product Trends by Product Category: Frozen Breakfast Foods
  • Product Trends by Product Category: Frozen Hand-Held Entrees
  • Product Trends by Product Category: Frozen Appetizers and Snacks
  • Product Trends by Product Category: Frozen Side Dishes and
  • Value-Added Vegetables
  • Table 4-10: US Market for Prepared Frozen Foods: Selected New Product Introductions, 1998-1999

Packaging and Technology

  • Individual Quick Freeze Technology
  • True Cook+ Microwave Operating System

Consumer Advertising Expenditures

  • 1998 Ad Expenditures Near $237 Million
  • Kellogg Top Advertiser, Followed by Pillsbury, Kraft, and Nestlé
  • Pillsbury, Chef America, ConAgra in Second Tier
  • Other Major Advertisers
  • Television Is Medium of Choice

Consumer Advertising Positioning

  • Ads Emphasize Taste and Convenience
  • "Real" Foods
  • The Nostalgia Appeal
  • Eating Smart
  • As Good As a Pizzeria
  • A Saucy Little Number
  • Leggo My Eggo
  • Targeting Moms for Kids
  • Examples of Consumer Advertising

Consumer Promotions

  • Merchandising Promotions Common
  • Coupons
  • Rebates
  • Price Reductions and Bonus Packs
  • Joint Promotions
  • Sampling
  • Contests and Sweepstakes
  • Merchandise Offers
  • National Frozen Food Month
  • Sports Tie-Ins
  • Road Shows and Other Events
  • Examples of Consumer Promotions

Trade Advertising and Promotion

  • Trade Advertising
  • Trade Promotions

V DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL

At the Distribution Level

  • Two Main Methods of Distribution
  • Warehouse Delivery
  • Direct Store Delivery
  • Logistics Costs

Retail

  • Supermarkets the Dominant Retail Channel
  • Health and Natural Foods Stores
  • Warehouse Clubs Growing in Clout
  • Mass Merchandisers and Drugstores
  • Convenience Stores
  • Vending Machines
  • Consumer-Direct Shopping

At the Retail Level

  • Freezer Space at a Premium
  • Slotting Fees
  • Changing Space Allocations
  • Pizza Benefits from More Shelf Space
  • Moving the Frozen Food Aisles
  • Mobile Cases and Outpost Locations
  • Doors, Coffins, or Multi-Decks
  • More User-Friendly Cases
  • Making the Aisle More Inviting
  • Retail Margins

VI THE CONSUMER

The Consumer

  • Notes on Simmons Market Research Bureau Data
  • Simmons Data on Prepared Frozen Foods
  • Overview of Consumer Patterns
  • User Characteristics Vary
  • 44% of Principal Shoppers Use Frozen Dinners
  • Frozen Dinners by Brand
  • 36% of Principal Shoppers Use Frozen Entrees
  • Frozen Entrees by Brand
  • 57% of Principal Shoppers Use Frozen Pizza
  • Frozen Pizza by Brand
  • 36% of Principal Shoppers Buy Frozen Pies/Cakes/Pastries
  • Frozen Pies, Cakes, and Pastries by Brand
  • 47% of Principal Shoppers Buy Frozen Waffles/Pancakes/French Toast
  • Frozen Waffles/Pancakes/French Toast by Brand
  • 13% of Principal Shoppers Use Frozen Breakfast Entrees
  • Frozen Breakfast Entrees by Brand
  • 38% of Principal Shoppers Use Frozen Appetizers and Snacks
  • Frozen Appetizers and Snacks by Brand
  • Table 6-1: Consumer Overview of Prepared Frozen Foods by Selected Product Segments, 1998 (% Principal Shoppers, Median Age, Median Household Income)
  • Table 6-2: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Dinners: All Users vs Heavy Users, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-3: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Purchase of Frozen Dinners by Brand, 1998 (Principal Shoppers): Swanson, Banquet, Healthy Choice
  • Table 6-4: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Entrees: All Users vs Heavy Users, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-5a: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Purchase of Frozen Entrees by Brand, 1998 (Principal Shoppers): Banquet, Stouffer's, Swanson
  • Table 6-5b: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Entrees by Brand: Budget Gourmet vs Weight Watchers, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-6: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Pizza: All Users vs Heavy Users, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-7a: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Pizza by Brand: Tombstone vs Totino's, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-7b: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Pizza by Brand: Red Baron vs Tony's, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-8: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Pies/Cakes/Pastries: All Users vs Heavy Users, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-9: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Purchase of Frozen Pies, Cakes, and Pastries by Brand, 1998 (Principal Shoppers): Sara Lee, Mrs Smith's, Pepperidge Farm
  • Table 6-10: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Waffles/Pancakes/French Toast: All Users vs Heavy Users, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-11: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Purchase of Frozen Waffles/Pancakes/French Toast by Brand, 1998 (Principal Shoppers): Eggo, Aunt Jemima, Downyflake
  • Table 6-12: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Breakfast Entrees: All Users vs Heavy Users, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-13: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Frozen Breakfast Entrees by Brand: Jimmy Dean vs Swanson Great Starts, 1998 (Principal Shoppers)
  • Table 6-14: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Purchase of Frozen Appetizers and Snacks by Brand, 1998 (Principal Shoppers): All, Hot Pockets, Bagel Bites

Consumer Behavior

  • NFFA Survey Identifies Five Consumer Groups
  • What Consumers Want

APPENDIX I: EXAMPLES OF CONSUMER ADVERTISING AND PROMOTIONS

APPENDIX II: ADDRESSES OF SELECTED MARKETERS

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