Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends

Dec 3, 2013
102 Pages - Pub ID: LA5158858
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Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends

Breakfast is regarded as the most important meal of the day, and for food retailers and industry players this widespread emphasis on the morning meal has helped spur the packaged breakfast baked goods market—which includes bagels, donuts, croissants, and English muffins—to sales of $4.9 billion in 2012. Yet challenges abound in this mature market, with growth stunted by health and diet concerns, changing eating patterns, and an increasing desire for fresh rather than packaged foods. In Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends, market research publisher Packaged Facts provides insights into the present and future of this food industry segment and offers guidance on successfully maximizing the remaining areas with growth potential in this otherwise mature segment.

Scope of Market

This report presents a detailed analysis of the U.S. consumer market for packaged breakfast baked goods sold in retail outlets, excluding independent and in-store bakeries. It outlines key issues and trends affecting the overall market and analyzes all product categories including shelf-stable, refrigerated, and frozen bagels, English Muffins, donuts, muffins, toaster pastries/tarts, and pastries such as Danish, coffee cakes, cinnamon rolls and others. The report also discusses major players and brands and analyzes their key activities and performance. Market size data are provided for 2008–2012 and projections for 2012–2017. All retail channels that sell consumer packaged breakfast baked goods are covered and considered in arriving at overall market size estimates, market trends and competitive analysis. Not included are sales through independent bakeries or sales of fresh products from in-store bakeries of retailers. Packaged products sold in the in-store bakery section and covered by IRI are included.

Methodology

The information in this report was obtained from both primary and secondary research. Primary research included consultation with industry sources and on-site examinations of the retail sector. Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, and figures from other market research sources. Our analysis of consumer trends primarily relies on cross-tabulations of data compiled by Experian Simmons, New York, NY. On an ongoing basis, Experian Simmons conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population. The 2004 through 2013 surveys cited in this report are based on samples of approximately 25,000 U.S. adults.

Our consumer analysis also draws on a national online consumer usage survey conducted in June 2013 by Packaged Facts. Our survey data represent a national online consumer panel of 2,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) balanced to Census on the primary demographic measures of gender, age bracket, race/ethnicity, geographic region, marital status, presence of children in the household, and household income.
Chapter 1 Executive Summary
Introduction
Scope of Market
Methodology
Product Category Definitions
Products Outside Market Scope
Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods Market Sales at $4.9 Billion in 2012
Figure 1-1 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods, 2008–2012 (in millions)
Sales Relatively Flat to Declining Since 2008
Table 1-1 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods, 2008–2012 (in millions)
Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
Figure 1-2 Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods Market: Share of Retail Dollar Sales by Category, 2012 (percent)
Table 1-2 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: By Category, 2008–2012 (in millions)
Product Segment Sales
Sales by Retail Channel
Figure 1-3 Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: Share of Dollar Sales by Retail Channel, 2012 (percent)
Market Forecast
Figure 1-4 Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: Projected Retail Dollar Sales, 2012–2017 (in millions)
Bimbo Controls 35% of Mass-Market Sales
Figure 1-5 Leading Marketers of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods:
Retail Dollar Share, 52 Weeks Ending June 16, 2013 (percent)
Table 1-3 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Good Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures
Product Trends
New Tastes and Experiences
Convenience
Marketing Trends
Consumers Overwhelmingly Prefer Fresh Bagels
Table 1-4 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Bagels: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
Thomas’ and Lender’s Consumer Favorites
Table 1-5 Brands of Bagels Eaten Most Often, 2004-2013 (percent)
Thomas’ Dominates English Muffins
Table 1-6 Consumer Purchasing of English Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
Donut Usage Declines
Table 1-7 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Donuts: By Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
Table 1-8 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
Little Debbie and Hostess Most Popular Breakfast Pastries
Table 1-9 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
A Quarter of Adults Eat Packaged Muffins
Table 1-10 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
Toaster Pastries Eaten by 40% of Consumers
Table 1-11 Consumer Purchasing of Toaster Pastries: By Type and Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
Consumers Cutting Back on White Bread, Wheat Flour and Gluten
Figure 1-6 Consumers Cutting Back on White Bread and Breads or Baked Goods Because of Ingredients, 2013 (percent)
Consumers Look for Whole-Grain and Multi-Grain Baked Goods
Consumers Purchasing of Shelf-Stable vs. In-Store
Chapter 2 The Market
Introduction
Scope of Report
Methodology
Product Category Definitions
Products Outside Market Scope
Market Size and Growth
Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods Market Sales at $4.9 Billion in 2012
Figure 2-1 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods, 2008–2012 (in millions)
Sales Relatively Flat to Declining Since 2008
Table 2-1 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods, 2008–2012 (in millions)
Economy’s Impact on Sales
Figure 2-2 Change in GDP and Personal Consumption
Expenditures, 2006–2013 (percent)
Household Formation Lags
Figure 2-3 Number of U.S. Households, 2002-2012
Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
Figure 2-4 Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods Market: Share of
Retail Dollar Sales by Category, 2012 (percent)
Table 2-2 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: By Category, 2008–2012 (in millions)
Product Segment Sales
Table 2-3 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: By Segment, 2008-2012 (dollar, unit and volume sales)
Sales by Retail Channel
Figure 2-5 Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: Share of Dollar Sales by Retail Channel, 2012 (percent)
Market Forecast
Figure 2-6 Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: Projected Retail Dollar Sales, 2012–2017 (in millions)
Chapter 3 The Marketers
Market Leaders
Bimbo Controls 35% of Mass-Market Sales
Figure 3-1 Leading Marketers of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: Retail Dollar Share, 52 Weeks Ending June 16, 2012 (percent)
Figure 3-2 Leading Marketers of Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: Retail Dollar Share, 52 Weeks Ending June 16, 2013 (percent)
Table 3-1 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Breakfast Baked Good Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Donuts
Table 3-2 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable Donut Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable and Frozen Muffins
Table 3-3 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and Frozen Muffin Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cakes
Table 3-4 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and Refrigerated Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cake Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable, Refrigerated and Frozen Bagels/Bialys
Table 3-5 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable, Refrigerated and Frozen Bagel/Bialy Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable and Refrigerated English Muffins
Table 3-6 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and Refrigerated English Muffin Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable and Frozen Toaster Pastries/Tarts
Table 3-7 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable and
Frozen Toaster Pastry/Tart Marketers, 2012-2013 (millions of dollars, percent)
Leadership Requires Fewer Brands than in Packaged Breads
Table 3-8 Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods Brands of Select Companies, 2013
Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures
Competitive Profiles
Bimbo Bakeries USA
Table 3-9 Bimbo Bakeries Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
Flowers Foods
Table 3-10 Flowers Foods Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
Kellogg Company
Table 3-11 Kellogg Company Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
McKee Foods Corporation
Table 3-12 McKee Foods Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
General Mills
Table 3-13 General Mills Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation
Table 3-14 Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
Pinnacle Foods
Table 3-15 Pinnacle Foods Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
James Skinner Baking Company
Table 3-16 James Skinner Baking Company Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
Bays Corporation
Table 3-17 Bays Corporation Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods
Chapter 4 Product, Retailing, and Marketing Trends
Product Trends
Health and Nutrition
Trans Fats
0 Grams Trans Fats
Illustration 4-1: Flowers Foods 0 Grams of Trans Fats
Ancient Grains
Illustration 4-2: Spelt English Muffins
Grains, Seeds Boost Nutrition
Illustration 4-3: Dave’s Killer Bread Good Seed Halos
Lender’s Healthy Grain Bagels
Illustration 4-4: Lender’s Healthy Grain Bagels
Sprouted for Life
Illustration 4-5: Food for Life Sprouted Grains
Gluten Free Expanding into Breakfast
Illustration 4-6: Gluten-Free Breakfast Products
Gluten Free in the Mainstream
Figure 4-1 Gluten-Free Food Products: Motivations for Purchase/Use, August 2012 (percent agreeing)
Thins and Flats
Illustration 4-7: Thomas’ Bagel Thins and Pepperidge Farms’ Bagel Flats
New Tastes and Experiences
Limited Edition
Illustration 4-8: Thomas’ Limited Edition Flavors
Illustration 4-9: Krispy Kreme Limited Edition Flavors
Illustration 4-10: Pop Tarts Limited Edition Flavors
Artisanal at Sam’s Club
Illustration 4-11: Artisan Fresh Bagels
Pretzel Products Tap Into Nostalgic Comfort Food Trend
Illustration 4-12: Thomas’ Mini Pretz-a-bagels
BelVita: Breakfast Biscuit or Cookie?
Illustration 4-13: BelVita Breakfast Biscuit
Convenience
Nature's Own Oatmeal Toasters
Illustration 4-14: Nature's Own Oatmeal Toasters
Perfect for Two
Illustration 4-15: J. Skinner Perfect for Two
Retailing Trends
Retailers Embrace Gluten-Free
Illustration 4-16: Barons Market Gluten-Free Customer Initiative
Branding Packaged Products for In-Store Bakeries
Illustration 4-17: J. Skinner In-Store Bakery Line
Kwik Trip Keeps it Fresh
Illustration 4-18: Kwik Trip Glazers Donuts
Marketing Trends
Udi’s Gluten-Free Connects with Consumers
Illustration 4-19: Udi’s My GFF
Co-Branding to Extend Awareness
Illustration 4-20: College-Branded Pop Tarts
Power of Facebook
Illustration 4-21: Entenmann's Facebook One Million Fans Sweepstakes
The Sweetest Comeback in the History of Ever
Illustration 4-22: Hostess Relaunch Campaign
Chapter 5 The Consumer
Note on Data Sources
Consumers Overwhelmingly Prefer Fresh Bagels
Table 5-1 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Bagels: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
Thomas’ and Lender’s Consumer Favorites
Table 5-2 Brands of Bagels Eaten Most Often, 2004-2013 (percent)
Demographics Vary by Bagel Type and Brand
Consumers Who Eat Bagels
Consumers Who Eat Fresh Bagels Most Often
Consumers Who Eat Frozen Bagels Most Often
Thomas’
Lender’s
Sara Lee
Table 5-3 Demographic Characteristics of Bagel Consumers: By Type and Brand, 2013 (index)
Thomas’ Dominates English Muffins
Table 5-4 Consumer Purchasing of English Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
Demographics Vary by English Muffin Brand
Consumers Who Eat English Muffins
Thomas’
Pepperidge Farm
Store Brands
Table 5-5 Demographic Characteristics of English Muffin
Consumers: By Brand, 2013 (index)
Donut Usage Declines
Table 5-6 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Donuts: By Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
Demographics Vary by Donut Brand
Consumers Who Eat Donuts
Dunkin’ Donuts
Krispy Kreme
Hostess
Little Debbie
Entenmann’s
Store Brands
Table 5-7 Demographic Characteristics of Donut Consumers: By Brand, 2013 (index)
Table 5-8 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Type, 2004-2013 (percent)
Demographics Vary by Breakfast Pastry Type
Gender
Age
Household Income
Educational Attainment
Region
Race
Children in Household
Table 5-9 Demographic Characteristics of Breakfast Pastry Consumers: By Type 2013 (index)
Little Debbie and Hostess Most Popular Breakfast Pastries
Table 5-10 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Breakfast Pastries: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
A Quarter of Adults Eat Packaged Muffins
Table 5-11 Consumer Purchasing of Packaged Muffins: By Brand, 2004-2013 (percent)
Toaster Pastries Eaten by 40% of Consumers
Table 5-12 Consumer Purchasing of Toaster Pastries: By Type and Brand 2004-2013 (percent)
Demographics Vary by Toaster Pastry Brand
Table 5-13 Demographic Characteristics of Toaster Pastry Consumers: By Type and Brand, 2013 (index)
Over Half of Adults Watching Diet; Seek Less Fat, Sugar, Salt, More Fiber
Table 5-14 Watching One’s Diet: Reasons and Foods Bought, 2005-2013 (percent)
Consumers Want to Eat Healthier, but Also Indulge
Table 5-15 Consumer Attitudes about Food: Agree a Lot, 2004-2013 (percent)
Consumers Cutting Back on White Bread, Wheat Flour and Gluten
Figure 5-1 Consumers Cutting Back on White Bread and Breads or Baked Goods Because of Ingredients, 2013 (percent)
Consumers Look for Whole-Grain and Multi-Grain Baked Goods
Figure 5-2 Consumer Demand for Types of Bread and Baked Goods, 2013 (percent)
Consumers Buying Shelf-Stable Products Less, Products from In-Store Bakeries More
Figure 5-3 Consumer Purchasing of Shelf-Stable Products and Products from In-Store Bakeries, 2013 (percent)
More Consumers Bought Shelf-Stable Breads
Figure 5-4 Consumers Purchasing of Shelf-Stable Bread Products and Products from In-Store Bakeries During Most Recent Grocery Shopping Trip, 2013 (percent)

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