Future of Foodservice: Food and Beverage Menu Trends & Opportunities

Oct 28, 2014
150 Pages - Pub ID: LA5362638
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Future of Foodservice: Food and Beverage Menu Trends & Opportunities

To grow sales, the restaurant industry must continually adapt to evolving consumer trends. Among the most important trends facing the industry are those associated with healthful eating choices, sustainability and the environment, cultural change and its influence on cuisine innovation, and matching consumers’ menu choice decision making with successful menu promotion strategies.

Future of Foodservice: Food and Beverage Menu Trends & Opportunities helps restaurant industry participants adapt to and plan for these important consumer trends. With respect to each of these themes, drawing from consumer survey results and menu databases, this report identifies what consumers want on the menu and what motivates them to try menu items. It also assesses the degree restaurant menus are adapting to those consumer wants and needs, and presents forward-thinking guidance on how restaurants can continue to shape their menus to meet them. Each section of the report includes an “outlook” summary providing forward guidance. To support our analysis, hundreds of menu examples are woven throughout the report.

More specifically, the report:
  • Identifies what motivates consumers to try a menu entrée. Building from proprietary survey results, we assess the degree various menu motivators influence restaurant goers to try new menu entrées. Themes include price, customization, health presence of vegetables, and seasonal items.
  • Analyzes consumer attitudes toward budgeting, the role fast food plays in budgeting, and draws conclusions about the relationship between budgeting and restaurant use.
  • Trends consumer health & diet attitudes and sustainability/environment attitudes over a 10-year period by demographic.
  • Trends menu prices from 2010 to 2014 for selected beverages and food entrees.
  • Examines menu promotional strategies on the menu and “beyond” the menu.
  • Assesses the degree consumers are influenced by healthful menu messaging & sustainability/environmental messaging when making food ordering decisions. Health analysis is framed by three health concepts: inherent health, diet-related health, and lifestyle.
  • Analyzes the degree restaurants are providing healthful menu items (also framed around inherent health, diet-related health, and lifestyle) and sustainability/environmental menu items. It also compares differences between “all” chain and independent restaurants and top chain restaurants.
  • Presents case studies of major chains’ health positioning and strategies, built from consumer survey analysis. Heath-driven case studies include Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill, Outback Steakhouse, The Cheesecake Factory, Chick-fil-A, Dunkin’ Donuts and Jamba Juice. Sustainability case studies include Dunkin’ Donuts and Chipotle Mexican Grill.
  • Assesses factors driving cultural change, including demographic trends and projections.
  • Gauges consumer interest in 25 cuisine types. In doing so, we examine consumer interest in trying each cuisine at 1) a fast food restaurant that specializes in that cuisine; 2) a mainstream fast food restaurant chain; 3) a mainstream sit-down restaurant chain; and 4) a sit-down restaurant that specializes in that cuisine.
  • Assesses 1) the degree restaurants are categorized as ethnic and non-ethnic (i.e. that serve a particular featured cuisine) and 2) the degree restaurants serve menu items categorized as ethnic and non-ethnic. In doing so, we analyze 25 different cuisine types.
  • Presents a “consumer health report card,” including per capita calorie trending, new menu item calorie trends, obesity trends, and connections between restaurant dining and obesity.
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Report Scope
Report Summary
Healthful restaurant choices
Consumer health report card
Trending consumer health & diet attitudes
Degree that health influences menu food choices
What’s on the menu
Restaurant case studies: healthfulness
Sustainability and the environment
Sustainability: a mainstream concern having clear ramifications for restaurant industry
Degree that sustainability & sourcing influences menu food choices
What’s on the menu
Restaurant case studies
Cuisine innovation and cultural change
Demographics shaping restaurants’ future
Consumer interest in ethnic and non-ethnic cuisines
Ethnic and non-ethnic cuisine representation on restaurant menus
Menu choice incentives & menu promotion strategies
Price sensitivity and budget prioritization
Customization trend remains in full swing
We want tasty fruits and vegetables. Do you serve any?
Navigating menu pricing and promotions
Chapter 2: Healthful Restaurant Choices
Outlook
The Consumer’s Health Report Card
Making health a priority
Simple math: weight is tied to calories
Long-term calories trend: calorie intake jumps almost 25% over 30 years
Graph 2-1: Per Capita Caloric Intake by Food Group: Number of Calories, 1970-2010
Graph 2-2: Per Capita Caloric Intake by Food Group: Share of Total Calories, 1970-2010
Near-term trend: calorie intake on the decline
Table 2-1: Caloric Intake by Food Group: Number of Calories, 2010-2012
Near-term obesity trends suggest mixed results
Graph 2-3: Percent of Overweight and Obese Adults, Including Obesity by Class, 1988-1994 to 2009-2012
New menu introductions suggest restaurant chains may be turning a corner
Simple math: weight is tied to huge healthcare costs
Restaurant industry growth and the obesity connection
Frequency of restaurant use correlates with negative diet self-perception
Fast food correlation even stronger
Eating out and calories: 1 meal out a week = 2 extra pounds a year
Diet and health tied to type of restaurant frequented
Trending consumer health & diet attitudes
The more things change, the more they stay the same
Quick-service restaurants increasingly given “junk food” status
Table 2-2: Consumer Health & Diet Attitudes, Agree a Lot & Any Agree, 2004-2014
Women demonstrate definitive views towards health and diet
Quick-service restaurants vulnerable to losing female patrons
But don’t overlook men
Table 2-3: Consumer Health & Diet Attitudes, Agree a Lot, by Gender, 2004 vs. 2014
Time pressed rationales related to health and diet skew towards youth
Continued need for QSRs to take page from fast casual
Table 2-4: Consumer Health & Diet Attitudes, Agree a Lot, by Age, 2004 vs. 2014
Less affluent households are most likely to say they don’t have the time to eat healthy
Table 2-5: Consumer Health & Diet Attitudes, Agree a Lot, by HH Income, 2004 vs. 2014
Hispanics and blacks agree fast food is all junk
Table 2-6: Consumer Health & Diet Attitudes, Agree a Lot, by Race/Ethnicity, 2004 vs. 2014
Less affluent families struggle with finding time to prepare/eat healthy meals
Table 2-7: Consumer Health & Diet Attitudes, Agree a Lot: Married with Children, by HH Income, 2004 vs. 2014
Degree that health influences menu food choices
Introduction
Restaurant health positioning
All natural: top health term influencing decisions at fast food restaurants
Claim ambiguity provides opportunity
Restaurants executing on the claim
Diet-related claims at fast food restaurants
Drawing the line on calories and fat
Graph 2-4: Healthy Terms: Degree of Influence on Food Choice, When On-the-Go at Fast Food Restaurant, 2014
Locally grown: top health term influencing decisions for special occasion
Restaurants executing on the claim
Graph 2-5: Healthy Terms: Degree of Influence on Food Choice, For Special Celebration at Nice Restaurant, 2014
Weighing low-/no- and inherent health
On-the-go at quick-service restaurants: inherent health
Table 2-8: Inherently Healthy Menu Terms: Degree of Influence on Food Choice When On-the-Go at
Fast Food Restaurant, by Demographic, 2014
On-the-go at quick-service restaurants: diet-related claims
Navigating gender
Table 2-9: Low-/No- Healthy Menu Terms: Degree of Influence on Food Choice When On-the-Go at
Fast Food Restaurant, Part I, by Demographic, 2014
Generational differences
Table 2-10: Low-/No- Healthy Menu Terms: Degree of Influence on Food Choice When On-the-Go at
Fast Food Restaurant, Part II, by Demographic, 2014
On-the-go at quick-service restaurants: Lifestyle terms
Table 2-11: Vegan and Vegetarian Menu Terms: Degree of Influence on Food Choice When On-the-Go at
Fast Food Restaurant, by Demographic, 2014
What’s on the menu
Table 2-12: Percent of Restaurants Serving Healthy Menu Items, by Menu Item Term, 2014
Inherently healthy menu items
The wide view: chains and independents
Table 2-13: Percent of Restaurants Serving Inherently Healthy Menu Items, by Restaurant Segment & Menu Item Term, 2010-2014
The narrow view: top chains
Table 2-14: Percent of Top Restaurant Chains Serving Inherently Healthy Menu Items, by Restaurant Segment & Menu Item Term, 2010-2014
Diet-related “low-/no-” menu items
The wide view: chains and independents
Table 2-15: Percent of Restaurants Serving Low-/No- Healthy Menu Items, by Restaurant Segment & Menu Item Term, 2010-2014
The narrow view: top chains focus on low/no- fat
Table 2-16: Percent of Top Restaurant Chains Serving Low-/No- Healthy Menu Items, by Restaurant Segment & Menu Item Term, 2010-2014
Restaurant case studies: healthfulness
Full-service restaurants
Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill
Table 2-17: Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill: Consumers Who Visit & Visit Most, by Demographic, 2014
Table 2-18: Consumers Who Visit Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill Most: Health & Diet, Inherent Health, Calorie Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Outback Steakhouse
Table 2-19: Outback Steakhouse: Consumers Who Visit & Visit Most, by Demographic, 2014
Table 2-10: Consumers Who Visit Outback Steakhouse Most: Health & Diet, Inherent Health, Calorie Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
The Cheesecake Factory
Table 2-21: The Cheesecake Factory: Consumers Who Visit & Visit Most, by Demographic, 2014
Table 2-22: Consumers Who Visit The Cheesecake Factory Most: Health & Diet, Inherent Health, Calorie Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Limited-service restaurants
Chick-fil-A
Table 2-23: Chick-fil-A: Consumers Who Visit & Visit Most, by Demographic, 2014
Table 2-24: Consumers Who Visit Chick-fil-A Most: Health & Diet, Inherent Health, Calorie Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Dunkin’ Donuts
Table 2-25: Dunkin’ Donuts: Consumers Who Visit & Visit Most, by Demographic, 2014
Table 2-26: Consumers Who Visit Dunkin’ Donuts Most: Health & Diet, Inherent Health, Calorie Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Jamba Juice
Table 2-27: Jamba Juice: Consumers Who Visit, by Demographic, 2014
Table 2-27: Jamba Juice: Consumers Who Visit, by Demographic, 2014
Table 2-28: Consumers Who Visit Jamba Juice Most: Health & Diet, Inherent Health, Calorie Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Chapter 3: Sustainability and the Environment
Outlook
Sustainability a mainstream issue
Trending consumer sustainability attitudes
Table 3-1: Consumer Environmental Attitudes, Agree a Lot & Any Agree, 2004-2014
Degree that sustainability & sourcing influences menu food choices
Introduction
Green movement gives rise to sustainability and food sourcing of menu items
Looking local
Taking it a step farther: site-grown produce
Sustainability terms influencing menu decisions
Graph 3-2: Sustainability & Sourcing Menu Terms: Degree of Influence on Food Choice When On-the-Go at Fast Food Restaurant, by Demographic, 2014
What’s on the menu
The wide view: chains and independents
Table 3-3: Percent of Restaurants Serving Sustainable and Sourced Menu Items, by Restaurant Segment & Menu Item Term, 2010-2014
The narrow view: top chains
Table 3-4: Percent of Top Restaurant Chains Serving Sustainable and Sourced Menu Items, by Restaurant Segment & Menu Item Term, 2010-2014
Cause marketing enhances green position
Restaurant case studies: sustainability and the environment
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Competitive differentiation: food culture
Embodied in a menu manifesto
Targeting vegans
Beyond the menu
Meeting customer
Table 3-5: Chipotle Mexican Grill: Consumers Who Visit & Visit Most, by Demographic, 2014
Health-forward
Table 3-6: Consumers Who Visit Chipotle Mexican Grill Most: Health & Diet, Inherent Health, Calorie Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Not environmental zealots
Table 3-7: Consumers Who Visit Chipotle Mexican Grill Most: Sustainability Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Dunkin’ Donuts
Competitive differentiation: coffee-driven convenience and speed of service
Table 3-8: Dunkin’ Donuts: Consumers Who Visit & Visit Most, by Demographic, 2014
An enviro-friendly user base
Catered to with recent beverage introductions
But wider sustainability initiatives still a couple of years away
Table 3-9: Consumers Who Visit Dunkin’ Donuts Most: Sustainability Attitudes: Any Agree/Strongly Agree, 2014
Chapter 4: Cuisine Innovation and Cultural Change
Outlook
Driving cultural change
An increasingly Hispanic America has generational implications
Graph 4-1: U.S. Hispanics: Total Population & Share of <18s, 18-64s & 65s, 2012-2060
Making household income gains—but not at all income levels
Table 4-1: Hispanic Mean Household Income as Percentage of U.S. Mean Household Income, by Income Quintile, 1994-2013
An increasingly empowered female America gives women greater choice
But rosy trends belie continued income gap
Table 4-2: Mean Income Earned by Women as Percentage Earned by Men, 1994-2013
Advanced schooling to the rescue
Table 4-3: Postsecondary Degrees Conferred, by Type and by Gender, 2007-2008 to 2016-2017
An aging America tilts population further toward 65+s
Graph 4-2: U.S. Adults Aged 65+: Share of Total Population and Adult Population: 2012-2060
Consumer interest in ethnic and non-ethnic cuisines
Introduction
At restaurant cuisine specialist versus mainstream chain
Table 4-4: Consumer Interest in Specific Cuisines: Quick-Service Restaurants and Full-Service Restaurants that Specialize in Cuisine vs. Mainstream Chains, 2014
Degree of interest: quick-service versus full-service restaurants
Table 4-5: Consumer Interest in Specific Cuisines: Quick-Service Restaurants and Full-Service Restaurants that Specialize in Cuisine vs. Mainstream Chains, Indexed, 2014
Interest in ethnic & non-ethnic cuisine: demographic analysis
Women are more willing to try a variety of ethnic cuisines
Table 4-6: Consumer Interest in Specific Cuisines: Quick-Service Restaurants and Full-Service Restaurants that Specialize in Cuisine vs. Mainstream Chains, by Gender, 2014
Young generations show diverse interest in ethnic cuisine
Table 4-7: Consumer Interest in Specific Cuisines: Quick-Service Restaurants that Specialize in Cuisine vs. Mainstream Chains, by Gender, 2014
Consumers remain interested in cuisines that embody their cultural roots
Table 4-8: Consumer Interest in Specific Cuisines: Quick-Service Restaurants that Specialize in Cuisine vs. Mainstream Chains, by Gender, 2014
What’s on the menu
Ethnic and non-ethnic cuisine representation on restaurant menus
Introduction
Availability of ethnic and non-ethnic cuisine restaurants is fairly balanced
Table 4-9: Percent of Restaurants Serving Cuisine & Percent of Dishes Featuring Cuisine, by Cuisine Type: All Restaurants vs. Chain Restaurants, 2014
The wide view: chains and independent ethnic cuisine cross-pollination trends
Table 4-10: Percent of Restaurants Serving Cuisine & Percent of Dishes Featuring Cuisine, by Cuisine Type: All Restaurants vs. Chain Restaurants, 2014
The narrow view: top chain ethnic cuisine cross-pollination trends
Mexican on chain menus
Table 4-11: Percent of Top Chain Restaurants Serving Mexican Cuisine, by Restaurant Cuisine Type, 2014
Mediterranean on chain menus
Table 4-12: Percent of Top Chain Restaurants Serving Mediterranean Cuisine, by Restaurant Cuisine Type, 2014
Southwest on chain menus
Table 4-13: Percent of Top Chain Restaurants Serving Southwest Cuisine, by Restaurant Cuisine Type, 2014
Thai on chain menus
Table 4-14: Percent of Top Chain Restaurants Serving Thai Cuisine, by Restaurant Cuisine Type, 2014
Chapter 5: Menu Choice Incentives & Menu Promotion Strategies
Outlook
New menu motivation: fast food and full service restaurants
Pricing pressure still quite relevant
Customization trends maintains steam
Health is a factor
Graph 5-1: Menu Entrée Motivators: Quick-Service Restaurants vs. Full-Service Restaurants, 2014
Quick-service restaurants
Graph 5-2: Quick-Service Restaurant Menu Entrée Motivators: Percent Agreement & Mean Agreement, 2014
Full-service restaurants
Graph 5-3: Full-Service Restaurant Menu Entrée Motivators: Percent Agreement & Mean Agreement, 2014
Age
Table 5-1: Menu Entrée Motivators: Quick-Service Restaurants vs. Full-Service Restaurants, by Age, 2014 . 128 Race/ethnicity
Table 5-2: Menu Entrée Motivators: Quick-Service Restaurants vs. Full-Service Restaurants, by
Race/Ethnicity, 2014
Prioritizing the budget
Table 5-3: Percent of Consumers Who Identify Budgeting as Top Priority, 2014
Role of fast food in budgeting
Table 5-4: Eating Fast Food Helps Me Stay in My Budget: Agree a Lot & Any Agree, By Demographic, 2014
If fast food is in the plan, it’s used more often
Table 5-5: Eating Fast Food Helps Me Stay in My Budget: Agree a Lot & Any Agree, By Monthly Frequency of Fast Food Restaurant Use, 2014
Menu pricing trends
Pricing trends over time
Table 5-6: Iced Tea & Iced Coffee Price and Price Change, by Restaurant Segment, 2010-2014
Table 5-7: Burger & Chicken Sandwich Price and Price Change, by Restaurant Segment, 2010-2014
Menu promotional strategies
Menu strategy: price
Quick-service snacking and value menus
Full-service meal deals
Menu strategy: Beyond the core menu
The beverage menu
The kids’ menu
Late night menu
Appendix
Methodology
Consumer survey methodology
Report table interpretation
Color coding
Indexing
Terms and definitions
Supermarkets
Restaurant categories
Limited-service restaurant definitions
Full-service restaurant definitions
Other definitions

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